Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22787
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7761 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:17 am

orangeblood wrote::uarrow: This time of year 06Z is 1am central standard time

Ntxw, I'm thinking about half of that Euro 12z qpf will be snow...cold air is too slow. Thoughts ?


I think euro is slow for the cold air. Also it has been known for under doing qpf's. Did so many times this year. It had 0.03 for DFW last Friday and only about 3/4th's of last Tuesday's system. We'll see, I'll hang on the Ukmet for now :cheesy: It's been my love model for this storm!!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/ukloop.html
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7762 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:26 am

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote::uarrow: This time of year 06Z is 1am central standard time

Ntxw, I'm thinking about half of that Euro 12z qpf will be snow...cold air is too slow. Thoughts ?


I think euro is slow for the cold air. Also it has been known for under doing qpf's. Did so many times this year. It had 0.03 for DFW last Friday and only about 3/4th's of last Tuesday's system. We'll see, I'll hang on the Ukmet for now :cheesy: It's been my love model for this storm!!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/UKMET_0z/ukloop.html

Keep us updated on the UKMET, please!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22787
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7763 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:32 am

Edit: NVM misread it! Showing 2.8 inches.


Stole this from EWG, credit to him!
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdfw
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K

Top
GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7764 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:52 am

Ntxw wrote:Edit: NVM misread it! Showing 2.8 inches.


Stole this from EWG, credit to him!
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdfw

What time does the UKMET come out?
0 likes   
Top
BigB0882
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2284
Joined: Thu Jul 03, 2003 12:08 am
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Contact:
Contact BigB0882

#7765 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:56 am

Wow, it got to 5 degrees in parts of Mexico? Poor animals...

http://www.cnn.com/2011/WORLD/americas/ ... tml?hpt=T2
0 likes   
Top
GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7766 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 2:45 am

06Z NAM coming out..
0 likes   
Top
GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7767 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:32 am

06Z NAM looks the same as the 00Z..pretty much..
0 likes   
Top
GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7768 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:31 am

Winter Storm Warning for NTX
0 likes   
Top
Tejas89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:25 pm
Location: DFW, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7769 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:50 am

Details.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM
WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING....CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD NORTH
TEXAS. AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THE PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET MIXTURE BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE
TO THREE INCHES. IN ADDITION...A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
FREEZING RAIN COULD COAT ROADS AND EXPOSED OBJECTS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO SLEET AND SNOW BY MID MORNING.

ALL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW FLURRIES MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN
EASTERN COUNTIES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL
VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.


NWS also forecasting record-breaking low of 11 at DFW Thursday a.m.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
srainhoutx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6919
Age: 67
Joined: Sun Jan 14, 2007 11:34 am
Location: Haywood County, NC
Contact:
Contact srainhoutx

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7770 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 08, 2011 6:21 am

Special Weather Statements are flying for Austin/San Antonio/Houston/Galveston and Lake Charles this morning. Looks like another interesting 34-36 hour or so. I see that WFO's are lowering temps as well. Is it Spring yet? :double:
0 likes   
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Wx Infinity Forums
http://wxinfinity.com/index.php

Facebook.com/WeatherInfinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Top
User avatar
txagwxman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

#7771 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:45 am

NAM/GFS are way off on the timing and intensity of this front...it is already 0F in Goodland, KS.

NAM has the 0F isotherm in Nebraska. 8F in SE Colorado, NAM says it is 16F!


Image
0 likes   
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
Top
HockeyTx82
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2540
Joined: Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:17 am
Location: Ponder, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7772 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 7:58 am

:uarrow: So what time do you think it will reach NTX? I walk to and from work. I get out at 5. Will I be ok walking home later or will the winds be howling by then?
0 likes   
Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.

Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Top
Tejas89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:25 pm
Location: DFW, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7773 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:02 am

NAM/GFS are way off on the timing and intensity of this front...it is already 0F in Goodland, KS.


Seems like it's passing through the OK panhandle from the current obs. at Guymon. Winds shifted to NE, gusts to 30. What does this mean for Texas / our winter weather?
0 likes   
Top
GRAYSONCO.WX
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:29 pm
Location: Denison, Texas

Re:

#7774 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:03 am

txagwxman wrote:NAM/GFS are way off on the timing and intensity of this front...it is already 0F in Goodland, KS.

NAM has the 0F isotherm in Nebraska. 8F in SE Colorado, NAM says it is 16F!


Image

What are your thoughts on snow totals for NTX, close to the Red River?
0 likes   
Top
WeatherDuck
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 57
Joined: Sun Feb 06, 2011 8:05 pm
Location: Taylor, TX

#7775 Postby WeatherDuck » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:04 am

What are the chances that the front makes it to Central Texas by midnight?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kelarie
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Age: 54
Joined: Mon Dec 20, 2004 1:18 pm
Location: Hobbs, NM

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7776 Postby Kelarie » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:12 am

Winter Storm Watch for Texarkana... :double:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
503 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

ARZ050-051-059-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>151-082200-
/O.CON.KSHV.WS.A.0003.110209T0600Z-110210T0000Z/
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE QUEEN...NASHVILLE...ASHDOWN...
TEXARKANA...IDABEL...CLARKSVILLE...MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...
PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...QUITMAN...GILMER...
JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...RUSK...HENDERSON...
CARTHAGE
503 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOW...FALLING TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT...THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. STORM
INTENSITY WILL PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING... THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: EXPECTING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE INCH
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY WITH
MINOR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ALSO POSSIBLE. ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS... SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. FURTHER
SOUTH NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...EXPECT TOTAL
SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES.

* IMPACTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW PACKED ROADS AND LOW
VISIBILITY.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
txagwxman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

#7777 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:14 am

The front will hit Dallas in the morning, and quickly drop to below 32F and change to all snow.

I also think Austin will reach 32F by early morning, and temps will drop into the teens Waco/Dallas by 9AM...yes that is way ahead of the NWS...
0 likes   
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
Top
User avatar
opticsguy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 231
Joined: Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:27 pm
Location: McKinney, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7778 Postby opticsguy » Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:53 am

Is the 6Z GFS starting to show some wrap-around snow lingering to 9 PM for DFW?
0 likes   
Top
orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7779 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:43 am

Latest SREF slowing the cold front by about 2-3 hours. According to some of the models, the low level jet is impeding it's progress once it gets into north Texas.

Not sure how plausible this scenario is with such a cold dense airmass. But would explain the NAM's higher qpf totals across eastern Oklahoma due to the abundant moisture brought into that area by the stronger llj
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
txagwxman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

#7780 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:55 am

North at 53 mph in Dalhart 14F!

WATCH OUT, these models have no clue.
0 likes   
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests