Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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gpsnowman
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#7781 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:55 am

Judging where the cold front is now, when should it make it to DFW?
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Re:

#7782 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:58 am

txagwxman wrote:North at 53 mph in Dalhart 14F!

WATCH OUT, these models have no clue.

14 at Dalhart. Well that gives me some idea. Seems a bit quicker than previoiulsy forecasted. I am starting to learn these arctic fronts always beat any forecasted time. Where is the moisture in relation to the front?
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Tejas89
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7783 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:59 am

You can see where the front seems to be dipping to the S/SW faster than to the SE... Already in Clovis, NM.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7784 Postby LearnedHat » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:00 am

Is the "indentation" (I'm not very conversant in met speak) in the leading edge caused by the shape of the jet stream?
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#7785 Postby southerngale » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:01 am

NWS LCH thinks freezing rain, sleet, or snow could reach as far south as the Lakes area of Southeast Texas.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-082100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...OR ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO OPELOUSAS. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER
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#7786 Postby kb75007 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:01 am

What's the latest for DFW in yalls opinion? Seems like it's going to be more than 3 inches to me
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Re:

#7787 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:04 am

gpsnowman wrote:Judging where the cold front is now, when should it make it to DFW?

Front will hit around 8z to 9z. And the temps should drop into the upper 10s by 7AM.

Waco 19F by 8AM, Wichita Falls 11F by midnight.

College Station, 32F by 9AM or so.

my 2 cents.
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Re: Re:

#7788 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:06 am

gpsnowman wrote:
txagwxman wrote:North at 53 mph in Dalhart 14F!

WATCH OUT, these models have no clue.

14 at Dalhart. Well that gives me some idea. Seems a bit quicker than previoiulsy forecasted. I am starting to learn these arctic fronts always beat any forecasted time. Where is the moisture in relation to the front?



Computer models can't handle the shallow cold air...
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Re:

#7789 Postby setxwxgurl » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:09 am

southerngale wrote:NWS LCH thinks freezing rain, sleet, or snow could reach as far south as the Lakes area of Southeast Texas.

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-082100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
421 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE LAKES REGION
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA BEFORE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW
APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR...OR ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO OPELOUSAS. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE
OR NO ACCUMULATION OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

$$

SHAMBURGER



WHAT A TEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7790 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:29 am

Currently, the NWS expects temps to drop to 33 here in Austin by 5 p.m. tomorrow. Based on the front's progress today and the latest model trends ... that forecast seems like it coud bust.
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#7791 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:31 am

This is one bad front...10F now Dalhart!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7792 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:31 am

Portastorm wrote:Currently, the NWS expects temps to drop to 33 here in Austin by 5 p.m. tomorrow. Based on the front's progress today and the latest model trends ... that forecast seems like it coud bust.

I got 24F tomorrow morning NW side of Austin (Leander).
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#7793 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:33 am

Great. I dont get off work until one a.m. I am either going to have to stay at work because of the weather (I work in hotels) or I will get home and stay awake all night watching all of this unfold. Looks like another crazy night! Who needs sleep?!
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Re: Re:

#7794 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:33 am

txagwxman wrote:
gpsnowman wrote:Judging where the cold front is now, when should it make it to DFW?

Front will hit around 8z to 9z. And the temps should drop into the upper 10s by 7AM.

Waco 19F by 8AM, Wichita Falls 11F by midnight.

College Station, 32F by 9AM or so.

my 2 cents.


You don't think the LLJ will impede its progress southeast ?? That already appears to be the case to me if you look at the surface map - dropping due south and southwest a lot easier than its progress towards the southeast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7795 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:35 am

Low-level jet---how can u stop 53 mph wind gust from the north? It goes right underneath it.

Models are just underestimating it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7796 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:35 am

txagwxman wrote:Low-level jet---how can u stop 53 mph wind gust from the north? It goes right underneath it.

Models are just underestimating it.


Bingo!
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#7797 Postby Tejas89 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:39 am

Guymon, OK: 24F to 10F in the last 1.5 hours.. Blowing snow, visibility less than 1 mi., and gusts to 40.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7798 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:39 am

txagwxman wrote:Low-level jet---how can u stop 53 mph wind gust from the north? It goes right underneath it.

Models are just underestimating it.


Oh, I agree with you just seems like there are some pretty stout LLJ winds coming up from the southeast as the surface low strengthens.
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#7799 Postby DonWrk » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:43 am

This front is stronger or just as strong as the previous one but just doesn't have the duration that the previous one had right?
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#7800 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 10:43 am

Now that the front is coming down faster than expected, what about the low pressure system? What time frame are we looking at now for arrival? :froze:
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