Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Dean4Storms]

Yes, looks like next week will be interesting for the deep south if that low along the Gulf Coast verifies. Will need to see if the models keep on this. Would lend my own opinion of it being a good possibility with the Srn stream jet so active with the enhanced El Nino conditions.

[vbhoutex]

Yes, looks like next week will be interesting for the deep south if that low along the Gulf Coast verifies. Will need to see if the models keep on this. Would lend my own opinion of it being a good possibility with the Srn stream jet so active with the enhanced El Nino conditions.

That is why I am not afraid to say this far out that it is what I would call a good possibility as opposed to just putting it off to the models being in la-la land out this far when showing winter precip in the deep South. That Southern jet activity has already given SE Texas an early snow. It doesn't appear that it is going to go inactive anytime soon either.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree VB, will need to watch this one closely.

[wobblehead]

NWS Mobile, AL (12-28-09):
"RIGHT NOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER GULF WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE OVER A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ON MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND
KEEPS OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. /04"

To date, how well has the ECMWF performed?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Why do different NWS offices have such different discussions? Per example the BTR/NO long range discussion no mention of really cold air or winter precip...

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY IMPULSE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE
FASTER TO RETURN MOISTURE. AT LEAST THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
OF THE MAJOR STORM THAT THE 00Z RUN WAS ADVERTISING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY...PER GFS...WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

Here is Mobile's, mentions really cold air and possible moisture over running cold air...
IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL START THE NEW YEAR OFF...COLD AND DRY! FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.

RIGHT NOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER GULF WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE OVER A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ON MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND
KEEPS OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. /04

Finally Lake Charles, talks about ploar front with coldest air, and winter precip opportunities...
A POLAR FRONT WILL BE HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EVEN COLDER AIR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE POTENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS
SEASON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE TO WORK WITH.

STILL THE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES OF WINTRY
WEATHER BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

Should throw Houston in as well but you get the point. Sorry this is long just trying to figure out how over 500 miles along the gulf why each office, escpecially Baton Rouge is always so different from others.

[Dean4Storms]

Why do different NWS offices have such different discussions? Per example the BTR/NO long range discussion no mention of really cold air or winter precip...

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE THURSDAY IMPULSE MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO CREEP INTO THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BEING A LITTLE
FASTER TO RETURN MOISTURE. AT LEAST THE 12Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
OF THE MAJOR STORM THAT THE 00Z RUN WAS ADVERTISING. FOR
NOW...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY...PER GFS...WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL.

Here is Mobile's, mentions really cold air and possible moisture over running cold air...
IT APPEARS THAT
WE WILL START THE NEW YEAR OFF...COLD AND DRY! FRIDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE BEACHES.

RIGHT NOW THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER GULF WILL
FORM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK ACROSS THE GULF ON MONDAY. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING MOISTURE OVER A VERY COLD AIR
MASS ON MONDAY. THE GFS KEEPS ALL OF THE MOISTURE IN THE GULF AND
KEEPS OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY ON MONDAY. HAVE LEFT A SMALL CHANCE OF
RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY. /04

Finally Lake Charles, talks about ploar front with coldest air, and winter precip opportunities...
A POLAR FRONT WILL BE HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FOR NEW YEARS EVE AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR EVEN COLDER AIR LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE POTENT FRONT IS FORECAST TO
WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS
SEASON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN
LOW AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE THIS FRONT WILL
HAVE TO WORK WITH.

STILL THE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES OF WINTRY
WEATHER BEYOND THIS FORECAST.

Should throw Houston in as well but you get the point. Sorry this is long just trying to figure out how over 500 miles along the gulf why each office, escpecially Baton Rouge is always so different from others.

The differences being which model they prefer to stick with and the 12z GFS was drier. However the GFS 18z run does come more in line with the ECMWF bringing precip along the Gulf coast come the 5th/6th with the 0 degree line just offshore. If this does play out it could spell some form of wintry weather near the immediate Gulf Coast, going to be a close call.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks Dean. It just always seems our office is always much more conservative with their forecasts than surrounding areas especially for the long range. But seem to come more in line with them as we get into the 48 to 24 hour timeframe.

[LaBreeze]

Please keep us posted on this "possible" scenario Dean4Storms. Your posts always seem pretty reliable.

[lrak]

Different forecasts:

Is it how we read the type?

Possibilities?

Also, maybe a little human emotion mixed with some standard deviation. Bullish higher potential return? Bearish lower risk and conservative ? No crow

Have to be diplomatic....ummmm..diplomacy of weather is a skill best served ?

[timNms]

NWS Jackson, MS from this afternoon:

PREVIOUS LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING
UP TO BE DRY AND VERY CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATIC AVERAGE AS THE MEAN POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES COULD
DIP TO THE UPPER TEENS OVER NORTHEAST MS FOR LOWS SAT/SUN
MORNINGS...BUT AT LEAST FOR NOW WE WILL ONLY RECEIVE BOUTS OF COLD
POLAR AIR AS THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN WHERE AN ARCTIC
OUTBREAK COULD TAKE PLACE AND WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. FURTHERMORE...AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM ENHANCED BY
EL NINO MEANS THAT WE COULD STAY ON THE WET SIDE WHICH WOULD
INCREASE THE ODDS OF GETTING WINTRY PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT.
/EC/

[Ivanhater]

Going to be interesting

[Stormcenter]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
730 AM CST TUE DEC 29 2009


SHORT TERM...
ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED TO ONGOING PACKAGE. MOST VARIABLES
LOOK TO BE IN PLACE. WED SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH AT A STEADY
PACE BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO WET THE AREA WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. ANOTHER REINFORCING RELATIVELY DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THU EVENING BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND STRONGER WINDS TO
THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN REMAIN ON THE DRY AND COOL SIDE THROUGH
SAT. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS INTERESTING. A POLAR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NE. THE HIGH DENSITY AIR MASS THAT MOVES IN
BEHIND IT WILL BE ABLE TO CREATE VERY STRONG ROLL VORTICITY THAT
WILL LIFT LAYERS AHEAD OF IT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MOISTURE
PROVIDED IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS BY THE SW JET THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS
OBVIOUSLY THE BIG QUESTION. THE GFS IS STILL VERY CONSERVATIVE
WITH THIS VARIABLE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND.

LONG TERM...
REGARDLESS OF ANY WINTRY PRECIP...SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUN
NIGHT...HIGH TEMPS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 30S FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE 40S OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF ON MONDAY. MON NIGHT MAY BECOME THE FIRST HARD FREEZE
FOR THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA AND THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE
SOUTH SHORE. ANOTHER INTEREST TO WATCH WILL BE THE AGRESSIVENESS
OF THE CONTINUALLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET OUT OF THE SW. MODELS
STILL SHOWING THIS FEATURE KEEPING LIFT AND MOISTURE LOCKED UP
OVER THE GULF BUT WANTS TO BRING MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT IT
FLIRTS WITH OUR INNER COASTAL WATERS. PLENTY OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND
THEN TO WATCH THIS.

[Dean4Storms]

NWS in Mobile, AL mentions it now in their morning AFD......


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES MAINTAINS A COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WILDCARD FOR THE FORECAST IS
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
THAT TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MONDAY. WHILE
TONIGHT`S OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS HAVE DROPPED OR SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED THIS FEATURE...GEFS/NAEFS/CMCEPS DATA MAINTAINS THIS AS A
POSSIBILITY WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE FOR INTERESTING WEATHER OVER
THE FORECAST AREA CONSIDERING THAT 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES ARE BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS AT LEAST DURING SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HPC HAS KEPT THE GULF SYSTEM IN THEIR DAY 6
GRAPHICS AND FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND REASSESS TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES TREND STEADILY COLDER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /29

[Extremeweatherguy]

Joe Bastardi, who has done a good job this winter IMO, is really starting to get worked up about the possibility of extreme cold into the deep south next week. He was hinting at possible winter precipitation threats as far south as Florida and thinks the pattern is looking very similar to January 1977 and January 1985 ("similar" does not mean a 100% repeat though). He stated in his long ranger video that the Florida citrus industry could potentially be "under threat" next week and that if they don't get a freeze they will be very lucky. He also said that he "isn't sure if he'll need his sled dogs as far south as Orlando, but he might need to them all the way to I-10" (obviously hinting at the idea that snow/ice may have a chance to fall that far south).

This wording definitely gets my attention because I am supposed to be headed to western North Carolina mid/late next week through the weekend. If it gets that cold down in Florida, then I can only imagine how cold it will be up there.



This will definitely be an interesting pattern to monitor!

[attallaman]

Going to be interesting

Where you been Ivanhater? Glad to see you posting again.

[One Eye]

Please Please verify for once. With the el nino weather pattern and the artic high of 1050 coming down, our chances are fairly good in the next couple weeks.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z ECMWF

Wow, talk about a deep freeze for the entire eastern half of the USA! Looking at the Penn State site, the ECMWF brings the 540 thickness line all the way into central Florida by next Tuesday morning with the 0C 850mb line in southern Florida! It also shows colder than -10C 850mb temperatures over the Carolinas with some snow falling..possibly making my arrival there on Wednesday interesting.

The 12z GFS looks equally cold, and is also showing a deep freeze into the eastern USA next week: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

12z ECMWF

Cold yes, but now the ECMWF loses the system in the Gulf altogether. Hope it flips back the other way!!

[Frank P]

I get 20 foot storm surges at my house more often than I get 1 inch of snow...