Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Yeah total rainfall for most of the big cities this year is not bad, a few inches below normal in some places. However last year's drought sapped a lot, and we need MORE than normal this year and likely next to make up for it which didn't happen.

DFW: SINCE JAN 1: 29.31 inches| Average: 34.53| Departure: -5.22
Austin: SINCE JAN 1: 34.31 inches| Average: 30.72| Departure: +3.59
Houston: SINCE JAN 1: 39.87 inches| Average: 47.47| Departure: -7.60 (<- this might be a bit high)

The pattern the next 2 weeks is not one that supports extremely cold air. It is split flow blocking which allows the jet to be suppressed and keep things near normal and slightly below normal behind systems with the very -NAO over the Hudson Bay. A strong storm or two can pull some cold air down from Canada or generate it's own, not too different from December and January 2010.

[vbhoutex]

A question. Now, I am not as smart as the sharpest object in a tool shed, but did we not have a wet fall/ winter? If yes ( I swear I remember something falling out of the sky...LOL), did not the models forcast a dry period for that forecast timeframe and it proved the models wrong? What I am saying, with Mother Nature, I think we still are trying to figure things out. My mother just died recently due to complications of a stroke that occured in 2002. Now, we know a ton about the brain, but ( as the Neo Nurse confirmed), there still so much we do not know. We can do wonders on small strokes, but massive, we still are aways from it. What I am saying is, I suppose anything can happen. Look at the snow DFW area got this past week. Maybe I know nothing...LOL

There's no question that the accuracy of any forecast beyond the 3-5 day period is suspect ... the further out one goes beyond that period, the less accurate the forecast is more likely to be ... unless the atmosphere is in a static state with an unchanging pattern.

You folks in SE Texas had "normal" precipitation for the Sep-Nov period this year but everyone to your west and northwest was drier and warmer than normal. So, in essence, those longer range forecasts did verify for this fall. One major forecast which received a lot of attention (and speculation) which did NOT verify was for ENSO. We are in neutral conditions but the forecast for this time period from last summer was for a weak-to-moderate El Nino. That obviously didn't happen.

I am not sure where you got that we had normal precip in SE TX(or at least Houston) from Sept-Nov. but we didn't. Sept. was close to normal, but Oct. and Nov. were very dry with less than 2" over those two months. My total at the house was 1.55" or somewhere near that which is well below normal. Our entire area(SE TX) is back in Severe or Exteme drought due to the lack of precipitation. Last number I saw for our rainfall deficit was 10.53" iirc. We have had some rain, about 1.2" so far in December.

[Portastorm]

Mea culpa!! It appears the research team at the Portastorm Weather Center had too much Grey Goose the day they completed this assignment. It appears they saw the temp map and thought it was precip and vice versa. Aye carumba!! Good catch vbhoutex and sorry. I take back that post!



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[Tireman4]

A question. Now, I am not as smart as the sharpest object in a tool shed, but did we not have a wet fall/ winter? If yes ( I swear I remember something falling out of the sky...LOL), did not the models forcast a dry period for that forecast timeframe and it proved the models wrong? What I am saying, with Mother Nature, I think we still are trying to figure things out. My mother just died recently due to complications of a stroke that occured in 2002. Now, we know a ton about the brain, but ( as the Neo Nurse confirmed), there still so much we do not know. We can do wonders on small strokes, but massive, we still are aways from it. What I am saying is, I suppose anything can happen. Look at the snow DFW area got this past week. Maybe I know nothing...LOL

There's no question that the accuracy of any forecast beyond the 3-5 day period is suspect ... the further out one goes beyond that period, the less accurate the forecast is more likely to be ... unless the atmosphere is in a static state with an unchanging pattern.

You folks in SE Texas had "normal" precipitation for the Sep-Nov period this year but everyone to your west and northwest was drier and warmer than normal. So, in essence, those longer range forecasts did verify for this fall. One major forecast which received a lot of attention (and speculation) which did NOT verify was for ENSO. We are in neutral conditions but the forecast for this time period from last summer was for a weak-to-moderate El Nino. That obviously didn't happen.

I am not sure where you got that we had normal precip in SE TX(or at least Houston) from Sept-Nov. but we didn't. Sept. was close to normal, but Oct. and Nov. were very dry with less than 2" over those two months. My total at the house was 1.55" or somewhere near that which is well below normal. Our entire area(SE TX) is back in Severe or Exteme drought due to the lack of precipitation. Last number I saw for our rainfall deficit was 10.53" iirc. We have had some rain, about 1.2" so far in December.

I should have corrected myself. Mea culpa to me too. I meant last fall/winter, not this year on rainfall. Please forgive me.

[weatherdude1108]

I forgive you porta, even if no one else does.

I was thinking back to my last post about "rogue" systems. What comes to mind for me goes back to June 2007. I don't know what the atmospheric dynamics were at the time, except that Texas was going through a dry spell/drought and the lakes were getting low(What a surprise!:P). There was a low pressure system spinning around in Oklahoma. This low pressure system made a move towards Texas, then parked itself over the state for the entire Summer! Our lakes filled up and Lake Travis had to open several of its floodgates to keep within the flood pool. It ended up being one of the wettest Summers on record. None of the experts predicted this would happen.

The experts predicted we would have a warm and dry Winter last year. It was chilly and wet. The experts also predicted a weak to moderate Nino weather pattern would come to fruition this Fall and Winter. A signifcant La Nada is what actually is occuring.

I guess my point is that the atmosphere is in an ever changing state of flux. Going on what Porta said, one can't really predict beyond 5 days with certainty. So based on history, LA NADA or not, we WILL have our cold and wet abundance again.

[Rgv20]

It got close but no freeze for my area...got down to 35F

[TeamPlayersBlue]

34.0F here in Sugar Land last night. Max radiational cooling i believe since the sky is bright blue today

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looking at the 500 MB chart, Canada's upper air dynamics look insane over the next few weeks.

[Ntxw]

Looking at the 500 MB chart, Canada's upper air dynamics look insane over the next few weeks.

That's because the GFS is struggling to figure out what to do with western -NAO. It doesn't know where to place the strong block and on top of that the Pacific storm train alone gives it fits.

I noticed the models have been hinting at a -EPO period once the NAO retrogrades, if that is the case lookout for the Siberian Express.

[Ntxw]

Last year


This year

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really curious where the ice sheet ends up after this winter. JB has mysteriously stopped posting graphics of the arctic ice sheet....

Edit: After looking at the analogs and what is expected in the 8 to 14 day forecast, i think temps will be all over the place this winter. Very warm spells then massive blocking in the arctic bringing us below normal temps. I dont think this winter we will be in any kind of stable pattern that will bring us steady warm or cold. Not sure if that is good for us in this great state.

[Portastorm]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Hint: It features not one but TWO winter storms for Texas during Christmas Week!

[Ntxw]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Pattern is going to be too volatile to trust the GFS Portastorm. Run to run consistency is not very good 3+ days out

[Portastorm]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Pattern is going to be too volatile to trust the GFS Portastorm. Run to run consistency is not very good 3+ days out

Of course I don't trust it! Therein lies why I included my "Lucy" reference. However, what I think people can take away from this is that for days now the GFS has shown a major cold blast for Texas on or just before Christmas. As you have pointed out, the SOI has tanked in the last week and there is growing talk from some that the subtropical jet will become more active. Maybe this changes the PNA to positive ... and perks up the MJO a little, maybe not. But again, let's look at trends here ... and the trends are somewhat positive.

No question there is lots of volatility right now and will be in the models (operational runs) in the days ahead. But we have some great potential now on the board to discuss.

[Ntxw]

^ Certainly! I was just trying to say no one has posted because our distrust for the models are high . Subtropical jet is coming alive no doubt about that, by the way the AO is yet again forecast to tank after the 15th. It would make this one of the lowest -AO Decembers on record if it persists. 2009 and 1976 being the others.

Courtesy of the Grey-Goose swelling mets at PWC

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well, the cold air in Russia has to go somewhere. At least the GFS is 'trying' to move this air and it shows some very dense highs in the polar region. One good thing to note, Siberia and Eastern Russia seems to be well below normal fr such a long time now and my guess is that this will continue. Im willing to guess since the region is well below normal for so long and possibly most of the winter, it increases the probability of s real Siberian express making its way into the lower 48. *Fingers Crossed*

[Portastorm]

Pish-posh ... everyone around here has become too smart.

I miss the days when we all emoted over every single GFS run. (just kidding).

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

of the latest GFS on 12/25 has perked up my ears.

I think the old saying about nothing but barbed wire between the Red River and the Canadian border would be in play.

[Ntxw]

At least our resident heat miser doesn't have much ammo to deter us . His warm posts have been lacking lately, hmm no zonal flow runs maybe?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

What have you people been doing all morning?! I can't believe there aren't all kinds of posts about the 12z GFS run!

I was out of pocket or else I would have. Lucy is teeing up the football, that's for sure.

Hint: It features not one but TWO winter storms for Texas during Christmas Week!

Just maybe.....