Texas Winter 2010-2011

[txagwxman]

Best I can tell the NAM is off by 8-10F at the front.

[Tejas89]

This front is stronger or just as strong as the previous one but just doesn't have the duration that the previous one had right?

That's the prediction. FTW NWS has a low of 11F tomorrow night for DFW (new record, colder than last week - and our coldest reading overall since '96?). If txagwxman's timing is correct it may get colder than that...

Very quick and pronounced warm-up heading into the weekend/next week (accd. to NWS).

[txagwxman]

I expect winter weather advisories to go up in College Station...

[CaptinCrunch]

Best I can tell the NAM is off by 8-10F at the front.

Same thing as last week, front looks to be about 4 hrs ahead of what models are showing. This is good as it should cut down on the amount of ice/sleet we get here across DFW, but I still think we'll see 4-6" of snow for the metro area.

[txagwxman]

I expect winter weather advisories to go up in College Station...

And maybe NW Harris County for tomorrow.

[tdgreen08]

Judging where the cold front is now, when should it make it to DFW?

Judging by my past broken and battered bones, it is not far a way. I haven't hurt this bad all winter, maybe it is a fluke, but I feel like this will not be a bust for N. TX., but instead will exceed forecasted expectations. Of course, this is by no means an official forecast, just my bones talking. Since I won't be able to sleep, I will be up, watching and waiting tonight.

[txagwxman]

ABSOLUTELY PATHETIC INITIALIZATION ON THE LATEST GFS...throw it out.

It thinks it was 10F in Goodland and 32F Dalhart...

Probably the worst initialization I have ever seen with the new improved GFS.

[gboudx]

Best I can tell the NAM is off by 8-10F at the front.

Same thing as last week, front looks to be about 4 hrs ahead of what models are showing. This is good as it should cut down on the amount of ice/sleet we get here across DFW, but I still think we'll see 4-6" of snow for the metro area.

That's also good to help the ISD's make the school cancellation decision if the wintry precip starts earlier. The forecast was for the wintry precip to encompass all of the metroplex by 6am. That's a close call for the ISD's to make that decision so close to start time.

[BrokenGlass]

Hey, last week there were a couple of great links with local Temp/Dewpoint numbers for OK and TX. Can somebody repost those links? Fun to track the progress of the front.

[CaptinCrunch]

Hey, last week there were a couple of great links with local Temp/Dewpoint numbers for OK and TX. Can somebody repost those links? Fun to track the progress of the front.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/zoa/mwmap2.php?map=zfw

[CaptinCrunch]

Best I can tell the NAM is off by 8-10F at the front.

Same thing as last week, front looks to be about 4 hrs ahead of what models are showing. This is good as it should cut down on the amount of ice/sleet we get here across DFW, but I still think we'll see 4-6" of snow for the metro area.

That's also good to help the ISD's make the school cancellation decision if the wintry precip starts earlier. The forecast was for the wintry precip to encompass all of the metroplex by 6am. That's a close call for the ISD's to make that decision so close to start time.

Wouldn't count on schools opening tomorrow, and maybe Thursday as well, after all we saw how they reacted to the weather last week.

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[txagwxman]

How bad is the 12Z GFS? It thinks it will be 20F in Dalhart at noon...it is already 10F.

[South Texas Storms]

How bad is the 12Z GFS? It thinks it will be 20F in Dalhart at noon...it is already 10F.

Wow this is just awful by the new "improved" GFS.

[tdgreen08]

North at 53 mph in Dalhart 14F!

WATCH OUT, these models have no clue.

14 at Dalhart. Well that gives me some idea. Seems a bit quicker than previoiulsy forecasted. I am starting to learn these arctic fronts always beat any forecasted time. Where is the moisture in relation to the front?

Computer models can't handle the shallow cold air...

Boise City, Ok is now 4 degrees with wind chills of -23. 40 mph N winds...yikes!!!

[South Texas Storms]

Txagwxman, since you said you expect CLL to be issued a winter weather advisory, how much wintry precip. do you expect in CLL and will it be enough to cancel classes?

[txagwxman]

Txagwxman, since you said you expect CLL to be issued a winter weather advisory, how much wintry precip. do you expect in CLL and will it be enough to cancel classes?

My guess it will be light sleet...and they will be so slow at it, that you will be going to school.

[South Texas Storms]

Txagwxman, since you said you expect CLL to be issued a winter weather advisory, how much wintry precip. do you expect in CLL and will it be enough to cancel classes?

My guess it will be light sleet...and they will be so slow at it, that you will be going to school.

Good! I hope you're right because I want to take my Severe Weather test tomorrow!

[wxman57]

I expect winter weather advisories to go up in College Station...

Main issue will certainly be the timing of the precip. In particular, when the precip ends. The NAM (and GFS) end the precip very shortly after the front moves though. On the NAM meteogram below, the front clearly moves through around 9am, dropping the temp from 44 at 9am to 27 at noon. But that .07" precip it shows ends between 9am and noon, probably closer to 9am when the temperature would be well above freezing. That's the same situation elsewhere across south-central and east-central Texas. Cold air comes in fast behind the front, but the precip shuts down fast, too.

Agree with you on some sleet as the precip ends there. But the sleet should melt upon hitting the ground.

[South Texas Storms]

Thanks wxman57! I guess it depends on how fast the precip. shuts off behind the front, which will probably be fast!