Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

latest sref significantly trended wetter for north texas tuesday, from a non event, to high probability for a band of sleet.

Meanwhile I'm worried about the dense fog & drizzle tonight.. alliance & denton are already dropping fast & there's a lot more moisture around than was first thought, streets are already wet.

[Texas Snowman]

Makes me think of our own Ntxw.

The pattern recognition part, not the old part!

"@BigJoeBastardi: I'm old, so like pattern recognition techniques more than model interpretation."

[Ntxw]

Makes me think of our own Ntxw.

The pattern recognition part, not the old part!

"@BigJoeBastardi: I'm old, so like pattern recognition techniques more than model interpretation."

Geez thanks now I feel old .

I wasn't around for the days of guys like McFarland and Taft who didn't have such models and were so good, wish I was though. They looked at charts and used the pattern recognition to make forecasts and were at the top of their game. There's very little of that now a days and much is too reliant on model output and raw numbers. We have to remember they use an equation to map out the weather, you mess up one spot and it ruins the answer. Knowing where models have trouble and have been wrong in the past helps!

Next couple of days looks messy. Temps will be marginal but it's cold enough just above our heads for sleet, freezing rain and maybe wet snow over the I-20/I-30 corridor. Lately the trend has been wetter after becoming non existent. Time to wait for the HRRR and RAP range to see how meso-features may play a role. I still am a believer of the Ukmet which likes the idea of mischief.

[TheProfessor]

Freezing rain advisory for
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS- PALO PINTO-PARKER-EASTLAND- counties.

[TrekkerCC]

Well - NWS Ft. Worth is putting up a Freezing Rain advisory for tonight and into Monday Morning.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1027 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...EFFECTIVE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM CST MONDAY...

.AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER WEST OF HWY 75 HAVE DROPPED TO THE
FREEZING MARK PRIOR TO 10 PM. LOCATIONS FROM BOWIE TO GAINESVILLE
MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH LOCATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST EXPERIENCING
THE SAME OVERNIGHT. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON MAINLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES EXPECTED. GLAZING WILL BE ENOUGH ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND AREA ROADWAYS TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN
SOME AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL RUN ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MCKINNEY TO DECATUR TO
EASTLAND.

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>117-129-101230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.140211T0600Z-140211T1600Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
1027 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
10 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM CST MONDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNRISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE
FIRST PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

[edit: to correct my wording above the NWS advisory]

[SouthernMet]

and it begins.. Nws fort worth just issued a freezing rain advisory for Parker, Denton, Wise, Collin, Palo Pinto, Stephens, Young, Eastland, Montague, Jack, Cooke & Grayson Counties..

[SouthernMet]

Well - NWS Ft. Worth is putting up a Freezing Rain advisory for Monday Night.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1027 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...EFFECTIVE FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM CST MONDAY...

.AREAS ALONG THE RED RIVER WEST OF HWY 75 HAVE DROPPED TO THE
FREEZING MARK PRIOR TO 10 PM. LOCATIONS FROM BOWIE TO GAINESVILLE
MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH LOCATIONS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST EXPERIENCING
THE SAME OVERNIGHT. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON MAINLY
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES EXPECTED. GLAZING WILL BE ENOUGH ON
ELEVATED SURFACES AND AREA ROADWAYS TO MAKE TRAVEL HAZARDOUS IN
SOME AREAS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREA WILL RUN ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MCKINNEY TO DECATUR TO
EASTLAND.

TXZ091>093-100>104-115>117-129-101230-
/O.NEW.KFWD.ZR.Y.0001.140211T0600Z-140211T1600Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-
PALO PINTO-PARKER-EASTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
CISCO...EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN
1027 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
10 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT THROUGH 10 AM CST MONDAY MORNING.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...TRACE TO A HUNDREDTH.

* OTHER IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE TEENS BY SUNRISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. SLOW DOWN AND
USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE
FIRST PLACES THAT ICY SPOTS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

no this is actually for tonight.

[TrekkerCC]

no this is actually for tonight.

Yeah, thank you for catching my mistake. You are correct; it is for tonight and into tomorrow morning.

[TheProfessor]

Strange, I've never seen them do something like that before.

Edit: Is there something wrong with NWS FWD's website? They just issued an frz rain advisory, then they unissued it, then reissued it.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Strange, I've never seen them do something like that before.

Edit: Is there something wrong with NWS FWD's website? They just issued an frz rain advisory, then they unissued it, then reissued it.

Edit 2: never mind I think they were correct ing the advisory time period.

[TheProfessor]

Strange, I've never seen them do something like that before.

[SouthernMet]

San Angelo nws issues wwa for freezing drizzle & fog causing ice accumulations.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1105 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MID MORNING MONDAY ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...

.A SHALLOW...MOIST...AND COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY IS LEADING TO FOG...AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. THIS DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S...LEADING TO AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVER PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.

TXZ049-054-098-099-113-114-127-128-101500-
/O.NEW.KSJT.WW.Y.0005.140210T0505Z-140210T1500Z/
FISHER-NOLAN-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-TAYLOR-
CALLAHAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...HASKELL...
THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...
ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS
1105 PM CST SUN FEB 9 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY.

* IMPACTS: PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON
BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES. THIS WILL
CAUSE SLICK ROAD SURFACES.

* TIMING: 11 PM TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM MONDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS: MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON BRIDGES...
OVERPASSES...TREES...AND CARS.

* WINDS/VISIBILITY: VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE MILE AT
TIMES...AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...
RESULTING IN WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15
DEGREES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

[gpsnowman]

Good morning Texas weather fans. 35 degrees and some drizzle on the way to work today. Hope we can get some snow to fall but it looks like mainly ice if anything tonight into Tuesday. Joy.

[srainhoutx]

The over night guidance has trended a bit colder and the chances of a wintry mix have increased mainly N of the I-10 Corridor beginning early Tuesday morning and extending into the daytime hour of Tuesday into Tuesday night as temperature struggle to reach the low to mid 30's inland and near 40 along the Coast. The fly in the ointment is a Coastal Low that appears to develop along the Middle Texas Coast as a warm nose above the surface is in place, temperatures near or just below freezing develop early Tuesday and may continue into early Wednesday. The WPC Winter Weather morning Outlook is suggesting the potential of a high impact societal winter weather event may develop across portions of E Texas extending E into Louisiana as the Coastal Low slowly moves E toward New Orleans. I would not be surprised to see various Winter Weather Advisories and even Winter Storm Watches or Warnings issued later today across portions Central/SE Texas and Ice Storm Warnings issued across portions of Louisiana. Stay tuned as the complex and complicated Winter Weather event unfolds and more data becomes available throughout today.

[Texas Snowman]

@NWSNorman: 520am - Numerous accidents being reported in Wichita Falls this AM. Take it very slow as you head out this morning. #txwx #texomawx

[Texas Snowman]

http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/mary-carillo-visits-siberia

"Mary Carillo visits Siberia to grasp the geography, temperatures and culture."

-----

I think we've found where to send Wxman57 if he misbehaves anymore. Or messes with Portastorm anymore.

[Texas Snowman]

Many schools are closing just north of the Red River due to icy roads. A few delays south of the Red River, primarily west of I-35.

[gboudx]

Morning update from jeff:

Another cold storm system heading for the area.

First item this morning is the widespread dense sea fog that covers nearly the entire region. Warm moist warm continues to flow inland across the chilled nearshore waters leading to very thick sea fog. Visibilities have been averaging ¼ to 1/8 a mile all night long with near zero around the inland bays and the coast. Will not see much improvement with the fog until the strong polar cold front currently along a line from Cleveland to Conroe to Hempstead pushes across the area.

Next item is the incoming cold front and how cold and how wet behind the boundary which brings P-type into question especially up north tonight and again Tuesday night. Shallow arctic boundary is currently cutting the area in half this morning and slowly pushing southward. Front should reach metro Houston around 900am and the coast by early afternoon. Dense fog south of the boundary will improve with the frontal passage, but light rain and drizzle will be developing behind the boundary as the shallow cold air mass is overrun by moist warm flow aloft. Temperatures are at highs currently and will be falling throughout the day with late afternoon temperatures ranging from the upper 30’s up north to lower 40’s along US 59 under gusty north winds.

An upper level storm system approaches from the west tonight into Tuesday with good lifting of warm moist air over the surface arctic cold dome. Expect widespread light rain and drizzle all night with developing heavier showers. Given the warm layer aloft, do not expect any frozen precipitation…so the question then becomes how cold will the surface temperature be. Current guidance is suggesting most of the area will remain above freezing with the exception of the area from roughly College Station to Livingston where temperatures may fall to 31-32 by Tuesday morning. Forecast soundings support a freezing rain profile if the surface temperature is able to reach freezing. At this point this looks fairly marginal, but close enough for some concern for those northern set of counties for some light icing Tuesday morning…Brazos, Madison, Walker, Polk, Houston, Trinity, Burleson Counties.

Tuesday will be miserable with widespread cold rain and temperatures hovering in the mid to upper 30’s for all areas. Should see enough temperature recovery up north to end any freezing rain threat by mid morning. Next critical period then becomes Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as surface temperatures look a bit colder during this time period with the freezing line progressing southward to a Columbus to Conroe line Wednesday morning. Upper level storm system should be pushing eastward across the area with drying taking place by Tuesday night however any delay in this system would support a freezing rain/sleet mixture along and north of a line from Columbus to Livingston late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This is looking marginal due to a lack of precipitation falling, but surface temperatures will be running about 2-3 degrees colder than Tuesday morning during this period…currently still think any icing will be minor.

For Houston metro, not expecting any ice concerns tonight into Tuesday morning and think most if not all the precipitation will end prior to any freezing temperatures on Wednesday morning.

As with all winter weather events there is some uncertainty especially since temperatures are going to be so marginal this go around compared to some of the previous threats in the recent weeks.

Rainfall amounts will average .25 to .75 of an inch across the area with the heaviest rainfall likely east of I-45 and along the coastal areas.

Storm system will exit eastward on Wednesday and expect to finally see dry NW flow aloft establish. This will result in clearing skies and more seasonable temperatures for the end of the week after several weeks of below normal temperatures. Lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s and 70’s look on target for Thur-Sun. Moisture does begin to increase off the Gulf again by Friday and once again with very cool nearshore water temperatures…we could be fighting dense sea fog if winds are light enough by next weekend.

[SouthernMet]

31 degrees in fort worth & denton with freezing drizzle.

[Texas Snowman]

Numerous accidents this morning in Sherman/Denison including some rollovers and vehicles tumbling down embankments. Roads are basically wet, bridges are Olympic skating rinks. If you're in North Texas, slow down!!!!