Texas Winter 2010-2011
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- wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
txagwxman wrote:
I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.
I agree, cold air is moving in faster. Just checked 12Z GFS MOS. Has 26F for Amarillo by noon. It's 16 in Amarillo as of 11am. But will guidance be THAT far off farther south? Probably not, as was the case last week.
Just looked at the past MOS forecasts for Dodge City. Mostly said 3F at noon, it's 2F now, so not too bad in southern Kansas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
wxman57 wrote:txagwxman wrote:
I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.
I agree, cold air is moving in faster. Just checked 12Z GFS MOS. Has 26F for Amarillo by noon. It's 16 in Amarillo as of 11am. But will guidance be THAT far off farther south? Probably not, as was the case last week.
Just looked at the past MOS forecasts for Dodge City. Mostly said 3F at noon, it's 2F now, so not too bad in southern Kansas.
I think you're right wxman57, there's not as much resistance across that region as there will be with the surface low pressure strengthening across west Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Still sticking...if not CLL then Hearne, TX will be 32F by 9AM.
But I have seen this so many times in the past, the GFS/NAM will miss...and AUS/CLL will see sleet.
If am i wrong, I am wrong...but this the last big shot of the winter anyway.
But I have seen this so many times in the past, the GFS/NAM will miss...and AUS/CLL will see sleet.
If am i wrong, I am wrong...but this the last big shot of the winter anyway.
Last edited by txagwxman on Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
orangeblood wrote:wxman57 wrote:txagwxman wrote:
I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.
I agree, cold air is moving in faster. Just checked 12Z GFS MOS. Has 26F for Amarillo by noon. It's 16 in Amarillo as of 11am. But will guidance be THAT far off farther south? Probably not, as was the case last week.
Just looked at the past MOS forecasts for Dodge City. Mostly said 3F at noon, it's 2F now, so not too bad in southern Kansas.
I think you're right wxman57, there's not as much resistance across that region as there will be with the surface low pressure strengthening across west Texas.
The raw 2m temps from the GFS are much warmer...they are only 15F DDC at noon...so the MOS equations are taking account the actual temp.
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“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Think we are still looking at a 3am to 7am cold front passage for Dallas?
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- CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
WeatherKing wrote:Think we are still looking at a 3am to 7am cold front passage for Dallas?
Closer to 3am than 7am for sure, if the front is thru Wichita falls by 6pm, then it should make FTW by 1am
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:
http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php
For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:
How good is this model??
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- ColdFusion
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
Interesting...any thoughts on this?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX wrote:
1151 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011
.UPDATE...
ONE CONCERN SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDING IS A SLIGHT DROP IN ATTITUDE OF THE TOP OF THE DENDRITE
SATURATION ZONE. IF THIS IS TRUE...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS ICE CRYSTALS
POPULATION TO WORK WITH AND COULD RESULT IS LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.
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- ColdFusion
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Re:
Jarodm12 wrote:^ typical nws forecast trying pray hoping to find the exception that will limit snowfall and save our city but really i have lost alot of confidence in them lately
It does seem that over the last couple of weeks they like to find a 'cover all your bases' phrase to put in the snow event discussions, LOL. I'm sure that's not the real reason though.
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- johnbasham
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
txagwxman wrote:Still sticking...if not CLL then Hearne, TX will be 32F by 9AM.
But I have seen this so many times in the past, the GFS/NAM will miss...and AUS/CLL will see sleet.
If am i wrong, I am wrong...but this the last big shot of the winter anyway.
Your thinking is the same as ours here. You can see in our forecast graphics we have the WINTRY mix hitting Hearne right around 9am. Our thinking is the 0c line very near there at that time.
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- johnbasham
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
jerryh421 wrote:johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:
http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php
For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:
How good is this model??
It's not a model. These are our hand drawn forecasts.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
johnbasham wrote:jerryh421 wrote:johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:
http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php
For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:
How good is this model??
It's not a model. These are our hand drawn forecasts.
Looks good...it may verify down here.
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“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”
- johnbasham
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Re:
txagwxman wrote:I don't recall the 2m temps on the GFS/ECMWF/NAM being this bad in a long time! This is worse than last week.
Interesting to look at some of the real-time data versus models. The wind profiler at Tucumcari as well as the Doppler data at AMA are showing this VERY cold air racing south as extremely shallow (2200'-2500').
The models are handling the areas where the depth of cold air (farther North) seems to be above 4500'. This will put together an interesting Freezing Rain scenario across a large part of the state if this continues trending this way through 3am.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
jerryh421 wrote:johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:
How good is this model??
Professional-Met. Professional-Met. John Basham Senior Meteorologist Storm Spotter Live, Inc. Fort Worth, Texas
Answer your question?
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Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.
- srainhoutx
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011
downsouthman1 wrote:jerryh421 wrote:johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:
How good is this model??
Professional-Met. Professional-Met. John Basham Senior Meteorologist Storm Spotter Live, Inc. Fort Worth, Texas
Answer your question?
He did. He stated it was a hand drawn graphic, not a model.

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