Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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gboudx
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#7841 Postby gboudx » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:18 pm

Thanks John. Always look forward to your graphics and text.
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#7842 Postby Dustan78 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:23 pm

Thanks so much John.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7843 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:29 pm

txagwxman wrote:
I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.


I agree, cold air is moving in faster. Just checked 12Z GFS MOS. Has 26F for Amarillo by noon. It's 16 in Amarillo as of 11am. But will guidance be THAT far off farther south? Probably not, as was the case last week.

Just looked at the past MOS forecasts for Dodge City. Mostly said 3F at noon, it's 2F now, so not too bad in southern Kansas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7844 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txagwxman wrote:
I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.


I agree, cold air is moving in faster. Just checked 12Z GFS MOS. Has 26F for Amarillo by noon. It's 16 in Amarillo as of 11am. But will guidance be THAT far off farther south? Probably not, as was the case last week.

Just looked at the past MOS forecasts for Dodge City. Mostly said 3F at noon, it's 2F now, so not too bad in southern Kansas.



I think you're right wxman57, there's not as much resistance across that region as there will be with the surface low pressure strengthening across west Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7845 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:41 pm

Still sticking...if not CLL then Hearne, TX will be 32F by 9AM.

But I have seen this so many times in the past, the GFS/NAM will miss...and AUS/CLL will see sleet.

If am i wrong, I am wrong...but this the last big shot of the winter anyway.
Last edited by txagwxman on Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7846 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:43 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
txagwxman wrote:
I am throwing guidance out. 7F now Dalhart.


I agree, cold air is moving in faster. Just checked 12Z GFS MOS. Has 26F for Amarillo by noon. It's 16 in Amarillo as of 11am. But will guidance be THAT far off farther south? Probably not, as was the case last week.

Just looked at the past MOS forecasts for Dodge City. Mostly said 3F at noon, it's 2F now, so not too bad in southern Kansas.



I think you're right wxman57, there's not as much resistance across that region as there will be with the surface low pressure strengthening across west Texas.

The raw 2m temps from the GFS are much warmer...they are only 15F DDC at noon...so the MOS equations are taking account the actual temp.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7847 Postby WeatherKing » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:50 pm

Think we are still looking at a 3am to 7am cold front passage for Dallas?
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#7848 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 12:58 pm

12Z ECMWF even slower with the front, yet it thinks it is 32F AMA at noon, it is 12F now.

Models are garbage right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7849 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:00 pm

WeatherKing wrote:Think we are still looking at a 3am to 7am cold front passage for Dallas?



Closer to 3am than 7am for sure, if the front is thru Wichita falls by 6pm, then it should make FTW by 1am
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7850 Postby jerryh421 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:05 pm

johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:

http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php

For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:

Image


How good is this model??
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7851 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:06 pm

Interesting...any thoughts on this?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX wrote:
1151 AM CST TUE FEB 8 2011
.UPDATE...
ONE CONCERN SHOWING UP IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDING IS A SLIGHT DROP IN ATTITUDE OF THE TOP OF THE DENDRITE
SATURATION ZONE. IF THIS IS TRUE...THEN THERE WILL BE LESS ICE CRYSTALS
POPULATION TO WORK WITH AND COULD RESULT IS LESSER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST.

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#7852 Postby Jarodm12 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:08 pm

^ typical nws forecast trying pray hoping to find the exception that will limit snowfall and save our city but really i have lost alot of confidence in them lately
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Re:

#7853 Postby ColdFusion » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:10 pm

Jarodm12 wrote:^ typical nws forecast trying pray hoping to find the exception that will limit snowfall and save our city but really i have lost alot of confidence in them lately


It does seem that over the last couple of weeks they like to find a 'cover all your bases' phrase to put in the snow event discussions, LOL. I'm sure that's not the real reason though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7854 Postby johnbasham » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:12 pm

txagwxman wrote:Still sticking...if not CLL then Hearne, TX will be 32F by 9AM.

But I have seen this so many times in the past, the GFS/NAM will miss...and AUS/CLL will see sleet.

If am i wrong, I am wrong...but this the last big shot of the winter anyway.


Your thinking is the same as ours here. You can see in our forecast graphics we have the WINTRY mix hitting Hearne right around 9am. Our thinking is the 0c line very near there at that time.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7855 Postby johnbasham » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:13 pm

jerryh421 wrote:
johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:

http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php

For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:

Image


How good is this model??


It's not a model. These are our hand drawn forecasts.
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#7856 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:16 pm

I don't recall the 2m temps on the GFS/ECMWF/NAM being this bad in a long time! This is worse than last week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7857 Postby txagwxman » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:17 pm

johnbasham wrote:
jerryh421 wrote:
johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:

http://www.stormspotter.com/client/texas/WinterWeather.php

For those who do not want to read the text part of the forecast, here is the forecast imagery:

Image


How good is this model??


It's not a model. These are our hand drawn forecasts.


Looks good...it may verify down here.
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Re:

#7858 Postby johnbasham » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:22 pm

txagwxman wrote:I don't recall the 2m temps on the GFS/ECMWF/NAM being this bad in a long time! This is worse than last week.


Interesting to look at some of the real-time data versus models. The wind profiler at Tucumcari as well as the Doppler data at AMA are showing this VERY cold air racing south as extremely shallow (2200'-2500').

The models are handling the areas where the depth of cold air (farther North) seems to be above 4500'. This will put together an interesting Freezing Rain scenario across a large part of the state if this continues trending this way through 3am.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7859 Postby downsouthman1 » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:22 pm

jerryh421 wrote:
johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:



How good is this model??


Professional-Met. Professional-Met. John Basham Senior Meteorologist Storm Spotter Live, Inc. Fort Worth, Texas

Answer your question?
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Not a professional MET! My posts are merely speculation.

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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7860 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Feb 08, 2011 1:24 pm

downsouthman1 wrote:
jerryh421 wrote:
johnbasham wrote:We've posted our new client forecast (for Texas Wednesday) where others can see it here:



How good is this model??


Professional-Met. Professional-Met. John Basham Senior Meteorologist Storm Spotter Live, Inc. Fort Worth, Texas

Answer your question?


He did. He stated it was a hand drawn graphic, not a model. :wink:
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