Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Wthrlvrmom]

Temp has been sitting at 28 here in Weatherford. Hourly forecast had 36 degrees at 1-2pm. Hmmm.

[ColdFusion]

Richardson was revised down to 34 degrees at the noon-ish update

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=32.94818&lon=-96.72972049999998&unit=0&lg=english&FcstType=graphical

[SouthernMet]

Is DFW about to experience Drizzlemageddon?

Wichita Falls/Abilene are more likely areas for a freezing-drizzlemaggedden Dallas area is not cold enough.

So how bad is the Wichita Falls area looking to get? We had some slick roads this morning from the freezing drizzle but now I am hearing that more ice will accumulate making matters worse! I didn't want this, I just wanted more of the snow!

I thought it was already "bad" in wf just from the reports I saw coming out of the surrounding areas & from Txdot/Nws. Wfisd cancelled school today. You might not have much drizzle but if its 22 degrees anything that falls will freeze.

[Ralph's Weather]

In Tyler the forecast was for 38 and we have been at 34 since this morning. It will be interesting to see how quickly we fall this evening. I see dew points in the 20s in North Texas and Arkansas, and I see NNW winds in DFW and NE winds in Northeast Texas. I imagine that this air will advect in here later on today.

[newtotex]

Temp is 28/29 here in Denton. I think our forecast was around 35?

[CaptinCrunch]

Temps have trended colder than forecasted for most of NTX, so I'm thinking that the NWS FTW will wait till the last min to issue any further winter wx advisories for NTX.
I don't see temps getting above 32 at all Tuesday and roads becoming a real mess by rush hour in the morning. I know models have trended wetter the past couple of runs, lets just hope that we see sleet and not a lot of freezing rain.

[SouthernMet]

im baffled as to why Tarrant county is not in the freezing rain advisory yet. The whole county is at or below freezing with low visibilities. 28-31 degrees countywide

[CaptinCrunch]

im baffled as to why Tarrant county is not in the freezing rain advisory yet. The whole county is at or below freezing with low visibilities. 28-31 degrees countywide

Because the drizzle is so patchy and spotty across Tarrant Co. It's foggy but no drizzle here in DTN.

[ravyrn]

Just got back from walking my dog. I saw a flock of about 10 or so birds flying north. A cold north wind blew in, and they did a 180 and turned back south. Hahaha, I don't blame them!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

At 1:47 pm CT, Dallas Addison observed 30.2 with a dewpoint of 28.4. Thats down from 32.0-32.0 at 12:47 pm CT.

BTW, at my office, which is in the Addison landing path about 1 mi south, our parking garage is 4 levels, with the top level being exposed. The top level has been closed due to ice.

[gboudx]

im baffled as to why Tarrant county is not in the freezing rain advisory yet. The whole county is at or below freezing with low visibilities. 28-31 degrees countywide

It is now.

[CaptinCrunch]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY
ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO WEATHERFORD TO MCKINNEY LINE...

...A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
TUESDAY...

.ON-AND-OFF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EASTLAND TO WEATHERFORD TO MCKINNEY
LINE. ICY ROAD CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THIS AREA AND
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE MUCH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA
ROADWAYS. BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED BY A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE BUT SECONDARY ROADS COULD ALSO SEE SLICK SPOTS BY THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

TXZ094-095-105>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-110500-
/O.EXB.KFWD.ZR.Y.0002.140211T0600Z-140212T0000Z/
FANNIN-LAMAR-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-
VAN ZANDT-RAINS-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-
COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-
LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-
ROBERTSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BONHAM...PARIS...GREENVILLE...
COMMERCE...COOPER...SULPHUR SPRINGS...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...
ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...GLENN HEIGHTS...ATHENS...GUN BARREL CITY...
COMANCHE...DE LEON...GOLDTHWAITE...HAMILTON...HICO...CLIFTON...
MERIDIAN...VALLEY MILLS...HILLSBORO...CORSICANA...TEAGUE...
FAIRFIELD...PALESTINE...LAMPASAS...COPPERAS COVE...GATESVILLE...
KILLEEN...TEMPLE...FORT HOOD...WACO...MARLIN...MEXIA...
GROESBECK...BUFFALO...CENTERVILLE...JEWETT...OAKWOOD...CAMERON...
ROCKDALE...HEARNE...FRANKLIN...CALVERT
231 PM CST MON FEB 10 2014

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST TUESDAY.

* LOCATION...FREEZING FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN DURING THE
DAY ON TUESDAY.

* TIMING...MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
ADDITIONALLY...A TRACE OF SLEET MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE ON TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACTS...FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PRODUCE A LIGHT GLAZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES...BRIDGES...OVERPASSES...AND SOME AREA
ROADWAYS. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED INCLUDING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

[orangeblood]

One word regarding today's forecast: ATROCIOUS....FW NWS office decided to follow the SREF, NAM and GFS guidance and has been dreadful, forecasting temps of some 6-8 deg F too warm. They have a big dilemma re: this upcoming forecast...if they go with the NAM, GFS guidance - its a borderline Winter Weather Advisory but follow the Euro Guidance and you have borderline Winter Storm Warning criteria with QPF in the 0.20-0.30 inch range. This is where past experience is extremely valuable in situations such as this as you can catch quite a lot of people off guard if the Euro verifies.

Hopefully, they can get this one right because I know just within my personal network of co-workers, friends and family they have almost ZERO confidence in the Local Pro Met community lately. It also seems to be the ongoing theme across the country as well, is it because the Pro Met community has developed an over reliance on Model output, disregarding any human reasoning ? Or just that weather forecasting is one of the most humbling careers you can have ?


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[SouthernMet]

im baffled as to why Tarrant county is not in the freezing rain advisory yet. The whole county is at or below freezing with low visibilities. 28-31 degrees countywide

Because the drizzle is so patchy and spotty across Tarrant Co. It's foggy but no drizzle here in DTN.

Tarrant & Dallas were just added. But definitely freezing drizzle in nrh.

[ravyrn]

Question for those more familiar with records and statistics of TX weather: What's the biggest temperature variance we've ever had in the state compared to the panhandle and STX? Have we ever breached the 90F variance threshold?

[CaptinCrunch]

One word regarding today's forecast: ATROCIOUS....FW NWS office decided to follow the SREF, NAM and GFS guidance and has been dreadful, forecasting temps of some 6-8 deg F too warm. They have a big dilemma re: this upcoming forecast...if they go with the NAM, GFS guidance - its a borderline Winter Weather Advisory but follow the Euro Guidance and you have borderline Winter Storm Warning criteria with QPF in the 0.20-0.30 inch range. This is where past experience is extremely valuable in situations such as this as you can catch quite a lot of people off guard if the Euro verifies.

Hopefully, they can get this one right because I know just within my personal network of co-workers, friends and family they have almost ZERO confidence in the Local Pro Met community lately. It also seems to be the ongoing theme across the country as well, is it because the Pro Met community has developed an over reliance on Model output, disregarding any human reasoning ? Or just that weather forecasting is one of the most humbling careers you can have ?


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I'm favoring the EURO on this one and tomorrow will be worse than what local wx forecasters are calling for.

[Portastorm]

I'm intrigued by orangeblood's post and some of the comments by you North Texans. The American guidance (GFS/NAM/SREF) definitely is "warm" for Austin and keeps temps above freezing. For those of you who get access to the Euro, what kind of grid numbers are they showing for Austin? Below freezing? I'm wondering if the same temp dilemma y'all have dealt with today will be our dilemma tomorrow.

BTW, folks here in the Austin area are equally critical of the meteorological "experts" after under-forecasting an event several weeks ago and over-forecasting the one on Friday. It's been a tough road!

[TexasStorm]

im baffled as to why Tarrant county is not in the freezing rain advisory yet. The whole county is at or below freezing with low visibilities. 28-31 degrees countywide

Because the drizzle is so patchy and spotty across Tarrant Co. It's foggy but no drizzle here in DTN.

Tarrant & Dallas were just added. But definitely freezing drizzle in nrh.

This should have you really baffled then because NWS just released a video briefing with everything in it from major impact to no impact. I don't think they know really.

http://youtu.be/fycSEMnFUeY

[orangeblood]

Latest RAP guidance showing what Euro has been depicting lately for early tomorrow morning, a band of moderate precip developing across the Northern Hill Country and moving east-northeast across North Texas during the morning hours. And according to the RAP, this is snow/sleet not freezing rain with temps in the 28-30 Deg F range across DFW. IMO, I'd be very skeptical of the current NWS Forecast calling for light freezing precip.....


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ralph's Weather]

I'm intrigued by orangeblood's post and some of the comments by you North Texans. The American guidance (GFS/NAM/SREF) definitely is "warm" for Austin and keeps temps above freezing. For those of you who get access to the Euro, what kind of grid numbers are they showing for Austin? Below freezing? I'm wondering if the same temp dilemma y'all have dealt with today will be our dilemma tomorrow.

BTW, folks here in the Austin area are equally critical of the meteorological "experts" after under-forecasting an event several weeks ago and over-forecasting the one on Friday. It's been a tough road!

I have the same question for Tyler.

It looks to me like there could be a major ice storm if temps stay below freezing tomorrow and we get a bit more precip both of which seem plausible considering today's conditions. The American models sure do seem lost here recently. Even the hourly RAP continues to initialize and run warm across all areas of North and Northeast Texas that I have checked.