Texas Winter 2017-2018

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

The Euro EPS still isn't showing much in the way of cold risk for Texas even while showing -AO/NAO & MJO P8. In February, that should be a cold look for Texas.

Pretty big change on the Weeklies with it showing the eastern half of Texas with above normal precipitation. However, they are also relatively warm.

I believe Feb MJO P8 is east coast centered...At this range, I would suspect none of these models to have a clue how to handle the Strat Warm at the 10mb level and how it propagates downward into the tropo

We are always told to check the source regions. Is that the issue?

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS still isn't showing much in the way of cold risk for Texas even while showing -AO/NAO & MJO P8. In February, that should be a cold look for Texas.

Pretty big change on the Weeklies with it showing the eastern half of Texas with above normal precipitation. However, they are also relatively warm.

I believe Feb MJO P8 is east coast centered...At this range, I would suspect none of these models to have a clue how to handle the Strat Warm at the 10mb level and how it propagates downward into the tropo

Feb P8 anomalies are generally below normal east of the Rockies. Texas would typically see cold air with a swing through P8. The EPS keeps all the cold air in Russia with the entire US void of deep cold air. This is certainly a possibility given the chaotic nature of strat vort splits. I'm just stating what the model is showing in the long range and it is somewhat supported by the GEFS. Like I said above, -AO/NAO MJO P8 would typically be a cold look for Texas.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Holding steady at 25 so far this morning. Wind chill is 12 with humidity at 63%. Its one of those days that you just cant stay warm.

[orangeblood]

The Euro EPS still isn't showing much in the way of cold risk for Texas even while showing -AO/NAO & MJO P8. In February, that should be a cold look for Texas.

Pretty big change on the Weeklies with it showing the eastern half of Texas with above normal precipitation. However, they are also relatively warm.

I believe Feb MJO P8 is east coast centered...At this range, I would suspect none of these models to have a clue how to handle the Strat Warm at the 10mb level and how it propagates downward into the tropo

Feb P8 anomalies are generally below normal east of the Rockies. Texas would typically see cold air with a swing through P8. The EPS keeps all the cold air in Russia with the entire US void of deep cold air. This is certainly a possibility given the chaotic nature of strat vort splits. I'm just stating what the model is showing in the long range and it is somewhat supported by the GEFS. Like I said above, -AO/NAO MJO P8 would typically be a cold look for Texas.

Yeah, looking back over the past 40 years from what I can tell...the years with a -AO/Phase 8 at some point in Feb were 2010, 1986, 1978 and they had this temp composite. So this could be a pretty rare setup which obviously will have it's own unique characteristics.

[orangeblood]

Speaking of MJO, we have big discrepancies developing between the GFS and Euro

[srainhoutx]

Oh the fun of long range forecasting...

[orangeblood]

Oh the fun of long range forecasting...

Long range, short range...it doesn't matter, this field is an extremely difficult one. Just look at this new data the FTW NWS office has to deal with - HRRR is picking up on a pretty robust disturbance moving through North Texas tomorrow morning when freezing temps are much more wide spread. This disturbance has somewhat come out of nowhere....

[bubba hotep]

Winter Wx Advisory expanded to include Denton & Collin.

[Jarodm12]

Winter weather advisory expanded to Denton and Collin counties. It’s starting to get interesting. Noticed the last bit on the high res makes you wonder

[SouthernMet]

NWS expands Winter Weather Advisory SE to include Fannin, Denton, Collin, Palo Pinto and Parker Counties.

RGEM has been showing what the HRRR is sniffing out for tomorrow morning as well. NAM is dry.

[Ntxw]

Oh the fun of long range forecasting...

Long range, short range...it doesn't matter, this field is an extremely difficult one. Just look at this new data the FTW NWS office has to deal with - HRRR is picking up on a pretty robust disturbance moving through North Texas tomorrow morning when freezing temps are much more wide spread. This disturbance has somewhat come out of nowhere....

Parent ULL crosses tomorrow morning. Not in the clear until it passes with a noisy STJ

[Brent]

maybe I can get an icy windshield again

[bubba hotep]

A blend of the 12z 3k NAM & WRF-ARW2 would be a pretty icy scenario for Collin County.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Really light freezing drizzle starting here

[SGJ]

maybe I can get an icy windshield again

Brent, what happened last time is why I have a hard time believing we'll get anything this time. We had a teeny bit of ice in the corner of 2 of my car doors. That's it.

My daughter and I feel like Wylie has a "force field" or dome over it...
If we do end up getting enough that the grass freezes enough to sled, I don't care what time it is and I don't care that she has school tomorrow - if she wants to take our sleds out, we will!!! (But definitely still not holding my breath...!)

[Brent]

maybe I can get an icy windshield again

Brent, what happened last time is why I have a hard time believing we'll get anything this time. We had a teeny bit of ice in the corner of 2 of my car doors. That's it.

My daughter and I feel like Wylie has a "force field" or dome over it...
If we do end up getting enough that the grass freezes enough to sled, I don't care what time it is and I don't care that she has school tomorrow - if she wants to take our sleds out, we will!!! (But definitely still not holding my breath...!)

I bet whatever accumulates would be elevated surfaces but we'll see

Temps will have to be colder than the models to get accumulation on the ground I think. Being 31-32 won't do it

[CaptinCrunch]

Don't hold anything long range in the cards, as a matter of fact just toss the entire deck. February has plenty to say before she's up.

[CaptinCrunch]

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for areas north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex, as well as northern portions of DFW, including Denton and Collin Counties. Light freezing rain and freezing drizzle is expected in these areas between 3 PM this afternoon and midnight tonight. Accumulations will be trace to a few hundredths of an inch of ice. This may result in light icing on bridges, overpasses, sidewalks, and possibly some roads. Any ice that accumulates will remain on surfaces through Wednesday morning.


Another potential for freezing rain may exist this weekend behind an arctic front arriving Friday night-Saturday. There is still uncertainty with this system so check back for updates through the week.

[CaptinCrunch]

I won't be surprised if the Winter Weather Advisory is expanded to include Tarrant and Dallas counties for lite FRZ drizzle.

[JayDT]

I won't be surprised if the Winter Weather Advisory is expanded to include Tarrant and Dallas counties for lite FRZ drizzle.

Ohh wow really?? And I was here thinking Dallas County had pretty much zero shot at this lol