Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

amen thank you bro good to see someone thinking that... i mean i might have a head as hard as steel BUT i just cant
help but take into acct when this first showed up on the models to the NAM now to just other factors including climatology
so ANYONE should think twice before they get to confident of a central/southern tx snow storm! but just my opinion and for portstorms sake and everyone else down that way i hope iam wrong but we will see

[Ntxwx]

Hey guys, have not been on in a while, I love all the talk of snow, but, It will be intresting to compare the 2 biggest snowstorms wise county has seen this season Christmas Eve and Snowmaggeden.

I have to ask... Is this Snow bout going to have strong winds? What can I be worried about? heavy snow or strong winds?

[vbhoutex]

amen thank you bro good to see someone thinking that... i mean i might have a head as hard as steel BUT i just cant
help but take into acct when this first showed up on the models to the NAM now to just other factors including climatology
so ANYONE should think twice before they get to confident of a central/southern tx snow storm! but just my opinion and for portstorms sake and everyone else down that way i hope iam wrong but we will see

With soundings showing snow almost all the way into Houston downtown, how can you ignore that? Climatology is important in forecasting, to say the least, but with this pattern we aren't real close to climatology imo.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Just a word of caution. That map will change as future guidance comes in just as the image I posted yesterday of Storm Tracks. Just too soon to know where and how this will all play out IMHO.

Note, too, that the HPC map above only goes out to 12Z Tuesday - before the snow starts in most areas of TX.

Made some soundings for SE TX areas. First, Houston. No change from 6Z GFS. Cold rain changing to rain/sleet mid afternoon then maybe to sleet/snow as precip ends late afternoon/evening. If that tiny warm (above-freezing) area is not there, then we could see a few hours of snow here:


Now, Austin. Austin sounding is definitely colder than Houston, and the preicp lingers longer after temps aloft are cold enough. I'd say 1-2" of snow may be possible there.


Now, Beaumont. Same story as Houston, but a tad warmer aloft. Cold rain then rain mixed with sleet Tuesday PM. Maybe some flakes as it ends. Probably no accumulation.


College Station. Definitely colder than Houston. Maybe a few inches of snow Tuesday afternoon.

[wxman57]

amen thank you bro good to see someone thinking that... i mean i might have a head as hard as steel BUT i just cant
help but take into acct when this first showed up on the models to the NAM now to just other factors including climatology
so ANYONE should think twice before they get to confident of a central/southern tx snow storm! but just my opinion and for portstorms sake and everyone else down that way i hope iam wrong but we will see

The NAM is definitely farther north with the snow track. Bit it's also the poorest performing model of the past few snow events. What are the odd of the NAM being right THIS time with all the other models being wrong?

[katheria]

how about one for dfw area?
always love looking at them...i learn more each time...

[Weatherdude20]

amen thank you bro good to see someone thinking that... i mean i might have a head as hard as steel BUT i just cant
help but take into acct when this first showed up on the models to the NAM now to just other factors including climatology
so ANYONE should think twice before they get to confident of a central/southern tx snow storm! but just my opinion and for portstorms sake and everyone else down that way i hope iam wrong but we will see

We shall see, I think the highest snow accumulations will be from San Angelo to Fort Worth, north and westward, (Mainly Centered along I-20) Im not going into details on the actual amounts, but, I will address the snowfall acumulations amounts will probably be lower than initially expected.

[wxman57]

how about one for dfw area?
always love looking at them...i learn more each time...

Go to Earl's models page (Link below). Click the blue square closest to you and it'll plot a map of projected snow accumulations out to 120 hrs based on the latest GFS run:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm

For Dallas, it's now saying around 2". 12Z is farther south with the heavy snow.

[katheria]

how about one for dfw area?
always love looking at them...i learn more each time...

Go to Earl's models page (Link below). Click the blue square closest to you and it'll plot a map of projected snow accumulations out to 120 hrs based on the latest GFS run:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.htm

For Dallas, it's now saying around 2". 12Z is farther south with the heavy snow.

thanks a bunch, i had lost earls page....

[gofrogs2]

It will be an intresting weekend to say the least weatherwise just wish we oculd get some consitency.

[wxman22]

12z Canadian definitely more in line in what the GFS shows...

[gofrogs2]

Looks like the candain give everyone six inches right.

[DentonGal]

I know we're focusing on Tuesday's potential snow event, but do I see something going on the first week of March for the DFW area?

[txwxwatcher]

amen thank you bro good to see someone thinking that... i mean i might have a head as hard as steel BUT i just cant
help but take into acct when this first showed up on the models to the NAM now to just other factors including climatology
so ANYONE should think twice before they get to confident of a central/southern tx snow storm! but just my opinion and for portstorms sake and everyone else down that way i hope iam wrong but we will see

The NAM is definitely farther north with the snow track. Bit it's also the poorest performing model of the past few snow events. What are the odd of the NAM being right THIS time with all the other models being wrong?

Couldn't agree more with wxman57. Also, I noticed your mention of College Station possibly getting a few inches Tuesday afternoon. I have no bone in this as I do not live in the College Station area. It just seems hard to deny the fact that there could be a more southern track taking shape. Like others in here, I hope that the entire system wreaks havoc and that much of Texas gets in on the snow. Time will tell soon enough...

[gofrogs2]

What does the canadian say. i may have read it wrong. how much for dfw based of that run.

[Weatherdude20]

I know we're focusing on Tuesday's potential snow event, but do I see something going on the first week of March for the DFW area?

Again, can't really go into the specifics because it is definatly long term, but, we warned it would be an active patern between now and the 1st or 2nd week of March atleast! And Sunday-Monday of NEXT week like the 28 or the 1st of March looks intresting(Wintry Mix, or Snow wise).

[txagwxman]

What does the canadian say. i may have read it wrong. how much for dfw based of that run.

1-2" ...

ECMWF drier north of I-20 though...and not as wet...

Houston on the cusp---542-544 thickness...College Station/Austin 1-2" on the ECMWF.

[vbhoutex]

It will be an intresting weekend to say the least weatherwise just wish we oculd get some consitency.

Consistency is word all weather geeks long for and fear all at the same time!LOL! Consistency is what we want in the model runs so we can make some sense of them and we fear it because if they were always consistent we wouldn't have anything to discuss.

Watching the Tuesday event with much interest! Looks like my area is going to be right on the edge of the snow if this pans out for SE TX.

[txagwxman]

That GEM model is wet for Houston after 6PM...precip doesn't end until midnight.

[srainhoutx]

I know we're focusing on Tuesday's potential snow event, but do I see something going on the first week of March for the DFW area?

A very potent storm is showing up on virtually all the guidance in the longer range for all of TX. Bears watching IMHO.