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srainhoutx wrote:DentonGal wrote:I know we're focusing on Tuesday's potential snow event, but do I see something going on the first week of March for the DFW area?
A very potent storm is showing up on virtually all the guidance in the longer range for all of TX. Bears watching IMHO.
We'll have a lot more problems with a deepening system oh my.
msstateguy83 wrote:holy wow....
Nam is finally on board, and to answer yes, more precip with this run than the previous nam run, but you can never be sure what Msstateguy is "holy wow"ing at... lol
Just remember the NAM has a tendency to 'overdo' QPF IMHO. msstateguy83 wrote:ntxw covered it well, my map might be right on target dfw area west will get blasted
with snow amts between 6-8" some areas plus 8 inches....
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CST SAT FEB 20 2010
...THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN A WINTRY MIX
ARRIVES TUESDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL REACH WEST TEXAS
AROUND MIDNIGHT AND NORTH TEXAS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RESULT IN BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION THAT WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE CWA FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK THROUGH SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. GFS
HAS CAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 J/KG WHILE BULK SHEAR IS BEST OVER
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SOME STORMS MAY BE MARGINAL SEVERE WITH
HAIL POTENTIAL UP TO NICKLE SIZE. THE WIND THREAT REMAINS LOW.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM PASSES...COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK. THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY THAT WILL ELONGATE WEST-EAST BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY. FORECAST NORTH TEXAS SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE GOOD SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AS STATED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT...LOW
LEVEL WINDS FIELDS WILL BE NORTHERLY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. ALSO THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE WILL BE MID 30S WHERE THE
SNOW POTENTIAL IS GREATEST. HAVE GONE WITH A SNOW/RAIN MIX SOUTH
OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO ATHENS LINE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
JUST SNOW ELSEWHERE WITH LITTLE NORTH OF I-20. BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF... SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE VERY HARD TO PREDICT...THUS EXPECT
SEVERAL INCHES IN SOME AREAS SOUTH OF COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO LINE.
THIS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMES CLEARER. NO WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
THIS TIME AS WE THINK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT EXCEED WARNING
CRITERIA (4" OR MORE IN 12HRS).
DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND AROUND NORMAL ON SATURDAY. 75
everyone else can have the 5+ =P .LONG TERM...
THE CURRENT BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
INTO WESTERN CANADA WILL NOT HANG ON MUCH LONGER. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW THE NEARLY
CUTOFF DOWNSTREAM SYSTEM OVER THE NW CONUS TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS TX ON TUESDAY. ONCE THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...THE PACIFIC
WAVE TRAIN WILL BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK...LIKE IT HAS BEEN MUCH OF THIS WINTER.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY RESIDES JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE SAN ANGELO WFO AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (CWA). THIS
BOUNDARY WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL...BUT
POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN AZ. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS W CENTRAL TX LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...THE WORK WEEK WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AREA WIDE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES WITH A POSITIVE
TILT...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN THE
REGION. STRONG MID LEVEL COLD FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL SWEEP GENERALLY NW TO SE ACROSS THE CWA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE INITIAL PRECIP MAY BE IN
THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...THE PRECIP SHOULD
QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW WITH BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWING
850MB TEMPS IN THE -2C TO -4C RANGE. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS A
POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH THE WARM GROUND...GIVEN THAT SNOW MAY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES WITH STRONG...BUT NARROW FORCING AND SOME HINT OF
CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY (CSI) PRESENT TO INCREASE
SNOWFALL RATES. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH SNOW WILL
FALL AND WHERE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE SPS THAT WE HAVE GOING.
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY EVENING
AND THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF.
It must be thinking that some of the precipitation that falls melts due to marginal surface temperatures..especially toward the beginning of the event. If surface temperatures are colder than predicted though, like what happened last time, then snow totals would surely be higher than what the NAM is showing.gofrogs2 wrote:How though that was a ton ofprecip it showed. and oly that little snow map.
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