Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Turtle]

Marshall, TX (East TX I-20)

Wednesday: Rain, snow, and sleet, becoming all snow after noon. High near 33. Northeast wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Up from 1-3 with a high of 36.

I hope you get some Turtle. This is probably our last chance this winter to get some freezing precip.

Thanks! I'm feeling pretty confident at 2"+. I hope you get some snow too.

NWS SHV hasn't issued a Winter Storm Warning yet, but they said they will when their AFD comes out. Which will be soon.

[russham3]

Wow, it's like waiting for water to boil for that front to hit Childress. Are we starting to believe the models a little more as far as timing for DFW?

The problem is there are no real monitoring stations just to the N, NW, & W of Childress.

There is nearly a 30 degree difference between these two locations west of Childress.



From http://www.mesonet.ttu.edu/

[txagwxman]

HGX issues Winter Weather Advisory for N and W part of SE TX...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM
WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN AND SLEET.

TXZ163-164-176-177-195>198-210>212-091200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1600Z-110209T2300Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-TRINITY-
WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CROCKETT...
EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...
LAKE SOMERVILLE...MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...PRAIRIE VIEW...
SEALY...TRINITY...WEIMAR
312 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE ADVISORY REGION MAY ALSO
EXPERIENCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SLEET. THE THREAT WILL PROGRESS FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OFF QUICKLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ENDING THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT.

ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS UPCOMING WEATHER EVENT
WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME COVERED
WITH A THIN LAYER OF PATCHY ICE MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

A HA! I got something right today!

[tecohorn]

Wow, it's like waiting for water to boil for that front to hit Childress. Are we starting to believe the models a little more as far as timing for DFW?

The problem is there are no real monitoring stations just to the N, NW, & W of Childress.

There is a nice mesonet system by the NWS... One of my very favorite sites..

Just drag it to north Texas or use the tools in the upper left hand to pan around the USA.. or the small map on the bottom right to quickly move the map to north texas.. you can see many stations all across the USA... It also has several other nice features..

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mtr/mesonet/

[LearnedHat]

The cold air sure seems to be moving slow on the DFW longitude. At this rate, Marfa will be freezing and Dallas will still be in the 50s

[wxman57]

As for Dallas, the NAM indicates about 0.1" precip during the period when the 850mb temp drops below freezing. That would indicate around an inch of snow. Precip would start as freezing rain, change to sleet then snow:

[Ntxw]

Ok I think we should stop cherry picking the cold air lol. Of course it moves south faster in West Texas, it always has and always will. Elevation there slopes downward so it speeds up faster out that way. DFW is not progged to get below freezing until after midnight at the earliest. Lets relax and wait!

[tecohorn]

Clarendon, Tx dropped from 43 to 15 in less than two hours...

Dropped from 43 to freezing in 15-20 minutes.. And from 39 to 29 in just 5 minutes..

Memphis Texas is at 47 degrees and Clarendon is just 15-20 miles NW..

If you look at the distance from Clarendon to Amarillo... The front is moving eastward at 8 to 10 mph or so currently.. pretty slow..

[txagwxman]

As for Dallas, the NAM indicates about 0.1" precip during the period when the 850mb temp drops below freezing. That would indicate around an inch of snow. Precip would start as freezing rain, change to sleet then snow:

GFS is wetter .25"...but snow ratios maybe higher tomorrow.

We will see...GFS 2m temps are about 10-12F too warm behind the front in the Panhandle.

[Jarodm12]

the cold air is coming and it will probably expoentially get faster as we get closer the precip i would imagion as that low moves south that air is going to be given than push that it needs no worries texas is going to get hammerd again.

this is not an offical forecast im just a guy on the computer

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO AND
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
VISIBLE SAT LOOPS SHOW EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE PANHANDLE...THE HIGH PLAINS AND OKLAHOMA WHICH WILL SPREAD
INTO NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS EVENING. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
ARCTIC FRONT FROM NW ARKANSAS DOWN ALONG I-40 IN OKLAHOMA THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CHILDRESS TO CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. INVERT SURFACE
TROUGH HAS FORMED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH TOMORROW.

AS FOR THE RAIN/SLEET/SNOW PROCESS BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OUR THINKING.
STILL FEEL THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE SOME FORM OF WINTER
WEATHER WITH AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4+ INCHES. THE
COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF I-20 SHOULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH A COMBINATION OF SLEET AND SNOW MAY REACH 1 INCH.

ONE THING THAT WE HAVE ADJUSTED FOR IS DIMINISHED FORCING PER
DIV-Q AND OMEGA FIELDS WEDNESDAY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THUS THE BEST
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE
MORNINGS HOURS WEST HALF AND UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON EAST HALF. HAVE
TONED DOWN PRECIPITATION FROM MID AFTERNOON ON AS THE FORCING DIMINISHES.

WE/VE INCLUDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
ON WEDNESDAY AS READINGS FALL TO ZERO OR LESS BETWEEN 7 AM AND 4
PM. ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY AND A HARD FREEZING WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RECORD SETTING LOW TEMPS ARE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT BOTH DFW AND WACO.

SINCE THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS THE LAST ONE...IT
SHOULD MODIFY A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY....THUS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM UP REASONABLY ON THURSDAY AND INTO THE 40S ON FRIDAY.
GENERALLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH SEASONAL TEMPS ON
SATURDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK
FRONT IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

THE LONGWAVE HEMISPHERIC PATTERN IS GIVING INDICATION OF A PATTERN
CHANGE AFTER DAY7 AS OUR CURRENT FOUR-WAVE PATTERN MORPHS INTO A
FIVE-WAVE PATTERN. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS WHERE
THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER HIGH IS REPLACED BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AND A BREAK DOWN OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
RETURN TO WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE MONTH.
75

[tim_aka_tim]

Marshall, TX (East TX I-20)
NWS SHV hasn't issued a Winter Storm Warning yet, but they said they will when their AFD comes out. Which will be soon.

Just out with a WSWarning

[Kelarie]

Turtle, just for us...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

* TIMING: ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING...AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS NEAR ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY. MINOR
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF AN IDABEL OKLAHOMA...TO ASHDOWN...HOPE...AND
ROSSTON ARKANSAS LINE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS... EXPECT TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES.

* IMPACTS: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
AND OUTDOOR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW PACKED ROADS AND LOW
VISIBILITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

[Ntxw]

FW continues to waffle on amounts. Why do I have a strange feeling they will get burned so bad lol (maybe bc they always do generally finding ways to limit accums. I'm surprised they haven't said 50s today warmed ground temps!)



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[txtiff]

Kids just got home and said they were told that school would start at 10a.m. tomorrow. I guess they are thinking this wont be a problem by 10a.m.

[Ntxw]

Kids just got home and said they were told that school would start at 10a.m. tomorrow. I guess they are thinking this wont be a problem by 10a.m.

It will get worse after 10am precip or no precip falling then.

[iorange55]

I have a strange feeling this is going to be a bust of somewhat. There is a lot of factors coming together and too many forecast changes not for it to be.

Rather it be a big ice storm, a big snow storm or hardly anything at all.

[Ntxw]

I have a strange feeling this is going to be a bust of somewhat. There is a lot of factors coming together and too many forecast changes not for it to be.

Rather it be a big ice storm, a big snow storm or hardly anything at all.

Models don't agree, NWS keeps trending away at totals, NAM slowly giving way. Do we want it any other way? Just as planned lol.

[downsouthman1]

I have a strange feeling this is going to be a bust of somewhat. There is a lot of factors coming together and too many forecast changes not for it to be.

Rather it be a big ice storm, a big snow storm or hardly anything at all.

I don't know about the "rather it be a big ice storm" part. I'd rather nothing than ice.

[Turtle]

Thanks for the updates guys. Interesting how the NWS SHV says

"ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.."

Does that mean there will be little to no rain from the start? I thought the rain would change to snow around noon.