Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Extremeweatherguy]

post the 81 ohour snowfall masp i bet thaty one is diffrent.

That's the one I posted. Hour 81.

[Ntxw]

What i've noticed is that twisterdata is always on the low side with the snow depth charts. Maybe I'm wrong, i was comparing it (GFS wise) with the one on wxcaster and they are different.

[srainhoutx]

In Portastorm's back yard from Austin/San Antonio...

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. A MUCH STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION
ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DRAW A COLDER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
SOUTHWARD MAKING FOR A WET AND CHILLY DAY ON TUESDAY. OVERRUNNING
MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD RAIN
STARTING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU.
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ON TUESDAY. THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED
WITH SNOW AT TIMES...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE DROPPING SOUTHWARD
TO HIGHWAY 90 TUESDAY EVENING. THE PCPN WILL END ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM.

[gofrogs2]

I meant 84 can oyu post the 84 hour map.

[msstateguy83]

no change in 81 to 84 hrs really... twister data seems to be on the low side but just my opinion...

[gofrogs2]

how much qpf from the nam falls in the time frame

[gofrogs2]

i meant in dfw

[srainhoutx]

Corpus Christi a bit better for Portastorm, S Central TX and folks in SE TX...

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY AS THE WEAKER COLD FRONT
NOSES INTO THE REGION. COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
DYNAMICS FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TEXAS BIG BEND/HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT TO LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS
TO THE EAST. BUT THERE MAY BE SOME QUESTION TOWARD PRECIP TYPE AS
THE GFS IS MUCH COLDER THAN THE NAM/ECMWF...SHOWING 925MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF A VCT-HBV LINE BY LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ECMWF/CAN SHOW THE 546 1000-500 MB THICKNESS
LINE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA COMPARED TO GFS NEAR THE
COAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT WITH AIRMASS
EXPECTED TO BE TOO WARM FOR FROZEN PRECIP BUT DEFINITELY MERITS
WATCHING IN LATER MODEL RUNS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
THROUGH THE 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS
FOR LOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE COASTAL BEND WEDNESDAY WITH
A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What i've noticed is that twisterdata is always on the low side with the snow depth charts. Maybe I'm wrong, i was comparing it (GFS wise) with the one on wxcaster and they are different.

I think it is because the wxcaster chart doesn't account for melting, while the twisterdata chart does.

[gofrogs2]

GFS should be running soon.

[srainhoutx]

Shreveport for those in E and NE TX...

MODEL RUNS CONCERNING TUESDAY/S POTENTIAL SNOW LOOK SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY/S...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EURO LOOKING A LITTLE
DRIER. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR
SNOW MAKING...SO REALLY THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT THE QPF THAT THE GFS IS
FORECASTING. AT ANY RATE...STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS TO
LOOK AT BEFORE WE HAVE TO CHOOSE SIDES...AND HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
GUIDANCE ACCORDINGLY. HOWEVER...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL...A WINTER STORM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

[srainhoutx]

Houston/Galveston...hmmm...

TWO MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD. FIRST IS CHC OF STRONG
TSTMS TOMORROW AND THEN WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. HAVE SIDED WITH THE LOWER POP NUMBERS FROM THE NAM FOR
SUNDAY AS I THINK THE CAP IS GOING TO BE A PROBLEM FOR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. WE WILL SEE SCT SHWRS...BUT QUESTIONABLE CONCERNING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WE WILL REALIZE WITH LITTLE SUN AND A
STRONG CAP IN PLACE. IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN...IT WILL LIKELY
OCCUR IN THE AFT HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE AREA. WILL
MENTION TSTMS AREAWIDE...BUT THINK THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. A COUPLE
COULD BE STRONG ACROSS EASTERN AREAS IF CAP WEAKENS ENOUGH.

THE LATEST GFS HAS MAINTAINED CONSISTENCY CONCERNING A CHC OF SNOW
ON TUE AND INTO TUE NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. ONLY MADE A COUPLE OF ADJUSTMENTS CONCERNING THIS EVENT. ADDED
A MENTION OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE EXTREME NW ON TUE MORNING AS 1000/500
MB THICKNESSES WILL BE NEAR 540 BY MID MORNING AND THE GFS INDICATES
A BAND OF PRECIP WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS THE
MORNING HOURS. ALSO BUMPED POPS UP A LITTLE FOR TUE. WE MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX MAKE IT DOWN TO HWY 59 AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT LATE ON TUE NIGHT. STAY TUNED IT IS
STILL EARLY FOR FIGURING ALL OF THIS OUT.

[Ntxw]

18z is so far south and dry, central and parts of S\E Texas gets some light snow, but the accumulating stuff is defined to West Texas.

[txwxwatcher]

Given the continued trends southward, I won't be surprised to see Tuesday's track end up even a little further south than the 18z indicates. Let's see what tonight's 0z has to say...

[wxman57]

The model trends (GFS, NAM and ECMWF) are definitely farther south with the heavier precip. Not to the coast by far, but south of I-20. Little accumulations (if any) up along the Red River on the latest 12Z and 18Z runs. Euro seems to show much less precip now, but it's hard to tell with 24hr increments.

[iorange55]

This is either a trend, and it will go south, and be much weaker. Or it's a wobble before the storm like the models do sometimes. If it's going to go south I'd at least want it to be stronger, so Austin and others get more than flurries, but we'll see.

[Portastorm]

Am posting via crackberry so I can't copy and post EWX's discussion, but I'm stunned to see them so sure "no accumulating snow." How can they ignore model guidance? It's maddening!!

[Rockets420]

Portastorm, I live in Austin too, and I am in complete disbelief that even local weather forecasts have us in the 40s. Some not even mentioning frozen precip (KVUE, KEYE). KXAN bullish on GFS, but still has high and low @ 39 degrees. These models cannot be ignored. I have a feeling we are going to be surprised, just like Dallas was last week. Maybe not a foot of snow but a few inches at least.

[Ntxw]

I think if it keeps going far southern track, a concept of a coastal low isn't out of the question, then precip would be defined to the coast and you have another S\E Tx snow miracle

[southerngale]

Thanks for making those soundings earlier, wxman57. Much appreciated.


NWS LCH has put rain/snow in my forecast and taken it out many times today. I'm not sure what's going on, but I never know what it's going to say when I check it. It changed 3 times, back and forth, in less than an hour this afternoon... and that's just what I happened to see.