Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Thunderstorm at 37 degrees here earlier

[Stratton23]

That is some brutally cold air about to enter the US on the 00z ICON, seeing -30’s to -45 showing up on the ICON with a new EPO ridge popping over alaska

[Ntxw]

That is some brutally cold air about to enter the US on the 00z ICON, seeing -30’s to -45 showing up on the ICON with a new EPO ridge popping over alaska

Manifestation of the severe -AO as well with Hudson Bay and Arctic blocks. MJO 7-8 coming.

[Brent]

Huge winter storm next Wednesday here on the GFS

The end of the icon was definitely headed for something wintry

[wxman22]

[Stratton23]

Major winter storm on the GFS at day 9 for texas , looks like the models are seeing the MJO moving into phase 8 as that is a much colder run as well

[gpsnowman]

Hmmm. Feb 20-March 7 late winter explosion. Let's do it.

[Cpv17]

Hmmm. Feb 20-March 7 late winter explosion. Let's do it.

Heck yeah, bring it on!

[Stratton23]

You can actually see a lobe of the polar vortex cross over into northern canada on the GFS, thats crazy

[Sambucol]

That is some brutally cold air about to enter the US on the 00z ICON, seeing -30’s to -45 showing up on the ICON with a new EPO ridge popping over alaska

I heard about that earlier today, and wondered if that kind of cold would pour down into Texas, modified, of course.

[Stratton23]

Euro just got really cold, looks like the GFS bery impressive blocking over the top

[gpsnowman]

I enjoyed hearing the peaceful overnight rains. Still going strong currently especially south of DFW. More storms tonight. Enjoy.

[Wthrfan]

I haven't been around here that long and was wondering how the activity on the 24-25 thread compared to past winters. I was surprised to see that at 399 pages and counting, it blew past the epic Texas Winter 2020-2021 thread of 380 pages. Texas Winter 23-24 only had 217 pages. Give me your predictions has to what page count Texas Winter 2024-2025 ends with...I'm going with 423!

[orangeblood]

When you have both the Euro and GFS aligned, look out! Next weeks storm should dig like this considering downstream is a log jam and with true arctic air involved, this one has a lot of potential!

King Euro has Borderline blizzard conditions with temps dropping into upper teens for a good portion of Texas by Noon next Wednesday

[wxman22]

Yep,the overnight run of the Euro has the same winterstorm as the GFS. The 6z GFS also still shows the storm FWIW.

[orangeblood]

Yep,the overnight run of the Euro has the same winterstorm as the GFS. The 6z GFS also still shows the storm FWIW.

Ensembles picking up on the storm system too, just a little further north attm.

[Ntxw]

Hard to believe with this kind of severe -AO that there won't be some anomalous south digging system this time of year.

[jasons2k]

Temp just dropped from 68 to 56 in about 20 minutes with heavy rain.

[Ntxw]

It looks like the pattern is starting to reflect the AO and MJO passage. Some time ago I noted the back half of February could look colder, I think us and models were rushing it too fast trying to defy the mjo, which as a signal has worked well this winter. Those two combos have been pretty reliable in terms of pattern recognition this year. The EPO has not been the driver for cold, only the cold loading pattern for Canada.

Jan 29th

If you're going by MJO precedent (we are in P4 now) then it won't be until late February until the pattern recovers. Have to make it through P6 first then the lag into 7 and COD is where cold relative to averages comes in this kind of ENSO.

Oklahoma may reap benefits from this in March (blizzard season for them.)

[HockeyTx82]

When you have both the Euro and GFS aligned, look out! Next weeks storm should dig like this considering downstream is a log jam and with true arctic air involved, this one has a lot of potential!

King Euro has Borderline blizzard conditions with temps dropping into upper teens for a good portion of Texas by Noon next Wednesday

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1739232000/1739988000-zBy0dKZjkWE.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/gust_mph/1739232000/1739988000-yappOHRcwoY.png
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f/1739232000/1739988000-AhRQwEnq2ww.png

But I thought we canceled winter? Maybe the groundhog is right?