Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Extremeweatherguy]

18z GFS snow depth at hour 78:

[southerngale]

I'll take it! We've already had accumulating snow once this winter. To see snow again in the same winter would be awesome, even if there's no accumulation. It's getting pretty late in February... I'd be happy with any amount of snow. Of course I'll probably just get a rock. And cold rain, of course. But one can hope!

[Turtle]

This would be the second time I'm too north for snow. How often does that happen? I hope you get some snow southerngale!

P.S. Page 400!!

[iorange55]

This would be the second time I'm too north for snow. How often does that happen? I hope you get some snow southerngale!

P.S. Page 400!!

I have a feeling north texas, through north east texas will see something. Maybe just a dusting or an inch. But I think there will be a tad more moisture up here than the 18z is showing. I do think central Texas will get bulk of it, though.

[Ntxw]

The ensembles mostly has some snow for north Texas and what falls should stick nicely with cold northerly winds, but it does appear Waco to Austin is where the GFS likes hitting this time . They are well deserving of it though.

[gofrogs2]

A couple of things that need to stay in our heads.

One is that Well frankly it was to 18z runs. lets see what the 0z run shows.

Two is that it really hard for me to believe that 0 precip is possible in dfw since this time yesterday it was showing .70 for my area.

Three is that this is textbook wobbling by the models. This has happened before. look for the runs to start going back to the north within the next few runs. maybee by the 00z runs.

[iorange55]

The ensembles mostly has some snow for north Texas and what falls should stick nicely with cold northerly winds, but it does appear Waco to Austin is where the GFS likes hitting this time . They are well deserving of it though.

Yes I just hope by some small miracle San Antonio sees something too.

[iorange55]

A couple of things that need to stay in our heads.

One is that Well frankly it was to 18z runs. lets see what the 0z run shows.

Two is that it really hard for me to believe that 0 precip is possible in dfw since this time yesterday it was showing .70 for my area.

Three is that this is textbook wobbling by the models. This has happened before. look for the runs to start going back to the north within the next few runs. maybee by the 00z runs.

Like I said I don't believe the 18z. I think we'll see something up here. I think it's just trending right now that central texas will get more than us. Of course it could just be wobbling, but if still shows the same on the 0z runs, and the 12z run tomorrow than I think it's more than a wobble.

[Ntxw]

The storm is still well offshore and hasn't even organized itself yet, don't write it off. As for Portastorm, get you're kicking shoes ready!

[southerngale]

Thanks, Turtle. I hope all of you up there get some too! Let's get all of Texas in on it.

Earl's page hasn't updated with the 18z info, but here's the 12z for SE TX. It's a good bit further south than it was yesterday afternoon. And I'm in the pink!

[Portastorm]

The storm is still well offshore and hasn't even organized itself yet, don't write it off. As for Portastorm, get you're kicking shoes ready!

I couldn't agree more Ntxw ... until this storm is close to the coast and has been sampled by the upper air network I wouldn't (and I'm not) getting too hung up on any model run. I still think anyone from the Red River to San Antonio has a shot at accumulating snow.

As for my kicking shoes ... let's just say that I will be addressing that subject tomorrow after the 12z runs. I do know where they are in the closet though!

[Ntxw]

Earl's page only makes graphics for 0z and 12z, and for sure! I hope you guys see more than just a dusting to an inch . If its going to snow, let it dump! =P

As for now, I'll be awaiting patiently for Portastorm's press conference tomorrow via 12z.

[southerngale]

:uarrow: Earl's page only makes graphics for 0z and 12z, and for sure! I hope you guys see more than just a dusting to an inch . If its going to snow, let it dump! =P

As for now, I'll be awaiting patiently for Portastorm's press conference tomorrow via 12z.

Oh, ok. Thanks. I'm an Earl newbie.

[vbhoutex]

The storm is still well offshore and hasn't even organized itself yet, don't write it off. As for Portastorm, get you're kicking shoes ready!

I couldn't agree more Ntxw ... until this storm is close to the coast and has been sampled by the upper air network I wouldn't (and I'm not) getting too hung up on any model run. I still think anyone from the Red River to San Antonio has a shot at accumulating snow.

As for my kicking shoes ... let's just say that I will be addressing that subject tomorrow after the 12z runs. I do know where they are in the closet though!

I'm amazed you could even find them. They've been sitting in the back of that closet for a long time!! Will be waiting eagerly for the news conference tomorrow after the 12Z run!:cheesy:

[vbhoutex]

I have been watching this developing storm with interest. I have something I would like any of our resident pro-mets(and any others too)to comment on. for the last few days and it looks like tomorrow possibly too here in Houston we have not made our progged temps for highs. It appears we will be running 3-5 degrees below progs for highs. If this continues will this affect the possibilities of snow with us entering into the colder weather at a lower temperature than originally thought(if the Southern track trend continues)? Is anything like this figured into the models?
SG I am in the pink too! It looks like it goes right up my street on the West side of Houston.

[Nederlander]

Cautiously keeping my fingers crossed that the southward trend continues.. Trying not to get too excited yet.. Looking forward to the 0z run

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts, he mentions the Tues storm. He's been pretty solid this winter.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner

[gofrogs2]

Hey guys what are the new model runs showing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey guys what are the new model runs showing.

00z NAM snow depth maps..

HOUR 60


HOUR 66


HOUR 72


HOUR 78

[Ntxw]

500mb flow energy from the NAM has the energy crossing more southwest to NE unless im seeing wrong, but the storm just doesn't have a lot of moisture to put into the cold sector.