Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Ivanhater]

Next week I'll be donning my shorts in celebration of the end of winter!

Don't be teasing us Wxman!

[Ptarmigan]

Well this is my best shot for sleet in Tomball...

SO IT GONNA HAPPEN.

Or as my avatar says, I will get dry slotted.

Give it up. I think it's only a remote chance with such a shallow layer of sub-freezing air.

You are too dependent on the models...and it is a little shallow...but this is my last shot of the year.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

Have faith. I want snow.

[downsouthman1]

WV loops kind of give me the feeling that the cold air will slow down because the shortwave is gonna hold it up. I know that was said yesterday, but at least earlier today that seemed to not be the case.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

[southerngale]

Pecos (82) & Amarillo (3). Difference: 279 miles & 79 degrees.

Hard to believe it's 82° there. It's been cold here all day.

[txagwxman]

You are too dependent on the models...and it is a little shallow...but this is my last shot of the year.

http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scr ... .0000W.png

I expect that the models are not going to handle the surface temps too well (they'll be a little warm), but this airmass is quite shallow (sub-freezing layer). It will take some much colder air aloft than the models are forecasting for sleet to fall. Go ahead and enjoy your 1-2 sleet pellets if they fall. Next week I'll be donning my shorts in celebration of the end of winter!

Yep... I expect 80F sometime next week.

[Ptarmigan]

I expect that the models are not going to handle the surface temps too well (they'll be a little warm), but this airmass is quite shallow (sub-freezing layer). It will take some much colder air aloft than the models are forecasting for sleet to fall. Go ahead and enjoy your 1-2 sleet pellets if they fall. Next week I'll be donning my shorts in celebration of the end of winter!

Don't mind some sleet.

[orangeblood]

WV loops kind of give me the feeling that the cold air will slow down because the shortwave is gonna hold it up. I know that was said yesterday, but at least earlier today that seemed to not be the case.

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/products/wx ... 0mbwv.html

It's really hard to see cold air at the surface with that water vapor loop..depiction of water vapor higher up in the atmosphere. I wouldn't rely on that for tracking cold fronts.

[Ntxw]

I expect that the models are not going to handle the surface temps too well (they'll be a little warm), but this airmass is quite shallow (sub-freezing layer). It will take some much colder air aloft than the models are forecasting for sleet to fall. Go ahead and enjoy your 1-2 sleet pellets if they fall. Next week I'll be donning my shorts in celebration of the end of winter!

Enjoy it Wxman! Winter may not be over for good. March has brought surprises! The NAO/AO is doing some mischief planning, don't let off your guards too soon . Afterall, Alamo the Texas longhorn saw his shadow

[SouthernMet]

Just pointing out a few things that haven't been thoroughly talked about..
In DFW, it appears the initial band of frozen precip should fall as freezing rain/sleet (ice). So DFW (esp south of i-20) may have to deal with ice first, before the snow. Snow accum from NWS look very reasonable atm for Dallas and Fort Worth (2-4") so I agree there.. However north of I-20 is favorable for the most signifigant snowfall esp north towards Gainesville/Bowie/Sherman where up to 4-8" could accumulate. Decatur-Denton-Mckinney line looks to get a decent amount of snow where 4-6" could fall and heavy snow for 2 hours in mid morning. 3-5" Looks to be fair for areas south of Denton to Plano but northern areas of Tarrant/Dallas counties.

Another hazard undiscussed is blowing snow and potentially some drifting snow. Which will be more common further north of I-20.

[SouthernMet]

Childress from 50 to below freezing in last hour...

Now 20 in Childress

[kb75007]

Childress from 50 to below freezing in last hour...

Now 20 in Childress

Which map do you use to track the front or what is a good one?

[SouthernMet]

Childress from 50 to below freezing in last hour...

Now 20 in Childress

Which map do you use to track the front or what is a good one?

I pm-ed you

[Metalicwx220]

Not tryin to get off topic,,but lol this thread has 400 pages in one winter. Yall must had a blast this winter.

[txagwxman]

Best I can tell the NAM is roughly 7-10F too warm at the front, and it is about 30-50 miles too slow.

[Ivanhater]

For you folks in Texas

WRF

[txagwxman]

For you folks in Texas

WRF

http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmea ... _1hour.gif

Which WRF is this (4km) or the WRF-NAM?

[Ivanhater]

I'm not sure txag.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

I'm not sure txag.

Can you post what the HRRR is showing, please?!

[Parker_County1]

For the Waco poster (sorry, I don't remember your name), it CAN snow in the heart of Texas. Take a look at the picture I just posted on the FW NWS Facebook page. This photo is of my dad, aunt, and grandmother in December 1929 at Vaughan, about five miles west of Abbott, Texas. If someone can help me post it here, I will.

[SouthernMet]

I'm not sure txag.

Can you post what the HRRR is showing, please?!

I don't know how to post images but HRRR 22z and recent runs have actually been consistently further north... OKC gets pounded though..