North Texas Winter 08/09. Analogs, Forecast, and Discussions

[CaptinCrunch]

Well, so far for the month of November (1-25) we have avg. 60.6 degrees, that's 4.6 degrees above the normal monthly temp. The good news is we are 1.84" above the monthly precip avg.

And we still have not recorded a official freezing temp (32) at D/FW Airport.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, so far for the month of November (1-25) we have avg. 60.6 degrees, that's 4.6 degrees above the normal monthly temp. The good news is we are 1.84" above the monthly precip avg.

And we still have not recorded a official freezing temp (32) at D/FW Airport.

really? Ive had 3 and im only about half an hour away...

[gboudx]

Well, so far for the month of November (1-25) we have avg. 60.6 degrees, that's 4.6 degrees above the normal monthly temp. The good news is we are 1.84" above the monthly precip avg.

And we still have not recorded a official freezing temp (32) at D/FW Airport.

really? Ive had 3 and im only about half an hour away...

Aren't you close to Allen? In Rockwall, I don't think we've had a freeze yet either. But I know points just north of us in Wylie and Lavon have.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, so far for the month of November (1-25) we have avg. 60.6 degrees, that's 4.6 degrees above the normal monthly temp. The good news is we are 1.84" above the monthly precip avg.

And we still have not recorded a official freezing temp (32) at D/FW Airport.

really? Ive had 3 and im only about half an hour away...

Aren't you close to Allen? In Rockwall, I don't think we've had a freeze yet either. But I know points just north of us in Wylie and Lavon have.

yeah im just sw of allen i think, west of wylie...and my weatherbug has showed 30 once and 32 twice

[PineyWoods]

Well, so far for the month of November (1-25) we have avg. 60.6 degrees, that's 4.6 degrees above the normal monthly temp. The good news is we are 1.84" above the monthly precip avg.

And we still have not recorded a official freezing temp (32) at D/FW Airport.

Just to the east of you here in east Texas we've hit 29° F. Hopefully we'll have a couple of snow days here .............. or at least have it in the forecast.

[CaptinCrunch]

I have had 2 freezes here at the house is southern Tarrant Co so far this year. I'm about 45 min from D/FW, (I'm closer to Burlenson than the airport) but you have to account for the heat island effect around the airport, the lowest temp they recorded at the airport has been 34.

[CaptinCrunch]

November Break Down. Lets hope December is better than this.

TEMPERATURE DATA

DAILY AV...... H/70.7....... L/48.6
AVERAGE MONTHLY:....... 59.7
DPTR FM NORMAL:...... +4.6

PRECIPITATION DATA

TOTAL FOR MONTH: 4.53
DPTR FM NORMAL: +1.96

[gboudx]

It hit 32 this morning so this is our 1st freeze at my house. We live up on a ridge and about 300 yards from Lake Ray Hubbard so maybe those factors contributed to us not hitting 32 prior to this.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
240 PM CST THU DEC 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH IS STILL LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO TEXAS TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH THIS
EVENING...BUT CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID AND LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A CLEAR NIGHT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS TO FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY
TONIGHT SO TENDER PLANT AND ANIMALS SHOULD BE PROTECTED.

Well we finally had our Official first freeze of the season last night and it looks like tonight and friday night will also hit freezing or below.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE SLOWLY STARTING TO WARM AND JUST
ABOUT EVERY SITE HAS WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. DFW HAD IT/S FIRST
OFFICIAL FREEZE FOR THIS SEASON THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SAW LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 20S. SEE THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS AND
INFORMATION.

[CaptinCrunch]

December Outlook for NC TX,

To sum it up in one word "BUST"!

Expect December to average out +3-4 degrees above normal, with little precip after the 8th-9th. Christmas Eve-Day look to be average at best, high's in the mid to upper 50's low's in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Southern jet will continue to keep arctic air to the north, pushing most of it off to the E-SE of the state. Expect the SE part of the U.S to be colder than normal with good chances of frozen precip from northern Bama to the Carolina's

[iorange55]

December Outlook for NC TX,

To sum it up in one word "BUST"!

Expect December to average out +3-4 degrees above normal, with little precip after the 8th-9th. Christmas Eve-Day look to be average at best, high's in the mid to upper 50's low's in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Southern jet will continue to keep arctic air to the north, pushing most of it off to the E-SE of the state. Expect the SE part of the U.S to be colder than normal with good chances of frozen precip from northern Bama to the Carolina's

I don't expect any major arctic outbreaks....but i have no idea what you're talking about here. Southeast being cool? From what I've been seeing and reading they're changing right now to a warmer pattern.

[CaptinCrunch]

December Outlook for NC TX,

To sum it up in one word "BUST"!

Expect December to average out +3-4 degrees above normal, with little precip after the 8th-9th. Christmas Eve-Day look to be average at best, high's in the mid to upper 50's low's in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Southern jet will continue to keep arctic air to the north, pushing most of it off to the E-SE of the state. Expect the SE part of the U.S to be colder than normal with good chances of frozen precip from northern Bama to the Carolina's

I don't expect any major arctic outbreaks....but i have no idea what you're talking about here. Southeast being cool? From what I've been seeing and reading they're changing right now to a warmer pattern.

depends on just how far South you are in the SE. Only northern parts of Alabama, Georiga, and South Carolina will see colder than normal temps, with chance of frozen precip

[iorange55]

December Outlook for NC TX,

To sum it up in one word "BUST"!

Expect December to average out +3-4 degrees above normal, with little precip after the 8th-9th. Christmas Eve-Day look to be average at best, high's in the mid to upper 50's low's in the upper 30's to lower 40's.

Southern jet will continue to keep arctic air to the north, pushing most of it off to the E-SE of the state. Expect the SE part of the U.S to be colder than normal with good chances of frozen precip from northern Bama to the Carolina's

I don't expect any major arctic outbreaks....but i have no idea what you're talking about here. Southeast being cool? From what I've been seeing and reading they're changing right now to a warmer pattern.

depends on just how far South you are in the SE. Only northern parts of Alabama, Georiga, and South Carolina will see colder than normal temps, with chance of frozen precip

I disagree with your December outlook for the area. But we shall see how it unfolds.

[CaptinCrunch]

Chilly morning to start the day for sure, weather gauge read 26 at 7:30am (currenty temp is 34). I saw a few snow flakes yesterday, to bad they were on the 10 O'Clock news...lol

.UPDATE...
1023 AM.
WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE TEENS WITH BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS
AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES. EVEN AT 16Z (10 AM CST)...FEW SITES
HAVE TOPPED 32F. WITH INCESSANT COLD ADVECTION...HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40F...PARTICULARLY WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
LONGER. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO EVACUATE...WITH MOST AREAS SUNNY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALL AREAS...NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

But have no fear, as another spring will soon be here, forcasted highs for the weekend are in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

Talk around the campfire is of a arctic plunge coming by early next week, with a chance of precip, we shall see.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE QUITE A
BIT IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT TO THE RED RIVER AND THEN STALLS IT FOR A
COUPLE DAYS. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE DENSE 1050 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IT HAS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
FRONT THROUGH...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES OF AS MUCH AS
20-30 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN HOW MUCH TROUBLE THE GFS HAS HAD WITH THESE
AIRMASSES...HAVE SIDED HEAVILY WITH THE ECMWF. BOTH MODELS
INDICATE PRE-FRONTAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY
POST-FRONTAL OVERRUNNING. FREEZING RAIN MAY BE OF CONCERN IF
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING.

[gboudx]

Out in Rockwall, the temp is still 28 and rising very slowly. I don't think it'll break 32 if the clouds don't clear up soon.

[CaptinCrunch]

Out in Rockwall, the temp is still 28 and rising very slowly. I don't think it'll break 32 if the clouds don't clear up soon.

Mostly sunny here, so your clouds should be clearing out in the next couple of hours.

[CaptinCrunch]

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/forecast/city_e.html?nt-24&unit=i

If Arctic plunge does come it will be very cold, look at the link for YellowKnife up in the Northwest Territories, now thats some mighty cold weather, and that's the 1050 High that SUPPOST to come south. BURRRR -29 for the high

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
323 PM CST WED DEC 10 2008

.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK HAS HELD ITS OWN EAST OF I-35 TODAY...WITH SOME
LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR AREAWIDE TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL PRECIPITOUSLY THIS EVENING...BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S
MOST AREAS. A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS OF THE WEST...WHERE DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS...MAY SEE THE MERCURY DIP BELOW 20F. BUT
WITHOUT THE STRONG WINDS...COMMUTE WILL BE A BIT MORE BEARABLE
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOW HUMIDITY...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE 50S. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
BY LATE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL MAKE HIGHS IN
THE 60S FEEL A BIT COOL...BUT THE WARMING TREND WILL PUSH HIGHS
INTO THE 70S REGIONWIDE ON SUNDAY...A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY FOR
MID DECEMBER.

BUT WINTER HAS ONLY JUST BEGUN. GFS NOW COMING IN LINE WITH OTHER
EXTENDED MODELS WITH A SHALLOW ARCTIC INTRUSION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PROLONGED POSTFRONTAL UPGLIDE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS. A BIT TOO EARLY TO PERFECT PROG THE EVENT...BUT
APPEARS LOW TEMPS MAY FLIRT WITH FREEZING NORTHERN ZONES. WILL
INTRODUCE SOME FREEZING RAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

[ntxweatherwatcher]

Do the models look favorable for freezing rain to happen? I would prefer snow!!! Freezing rain is a mess....

[cheezyWXguy]

Do the models look favorable for freezing rain to happen? I would prefer snow!!! Freezing rain is a mess....

Yeah, but snow wont cancel school unless we get a lot of it. Just common sense, dont drive when its icy.