SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Got a good 3 inches in about 2 1/2 hrs. All sleet now at 32 deg

[gboudx]

A guy in Watson, La(near BR) shared these on a Saints fan forum.

http://webovationstudios.com/snow-gallery/index.htm

[KatDaddy]

I picked up about 1.5" perhaps a little more in League City. It really came down for an hour so. Heavier than 2004. I took a ton of photos I will post on Photobucket this weekend. It was a total blast!

[KatDaddy]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1158 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008

...SNOW FALL TOTALS FOR 10 DECEMBER 2008...

A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS YESTERDAY AND HAS PRODUCED A BROAD AREA OF SNOWFALL FOR
EARLY DECEMBER. THIS TIES THE MARK FOR THE EARLIEST SNOW FALL IN
THE HOUSTON AREA FOR DECEMBER. IT HAD ALSO SNOWED ON DECEMBER 10
IN 1944. LIGHT SNOW FELL DURING THE MORNING OVER PARTS OF
WASHINGTON...BURLESON AND BRAZOS COUNTIES ON DECEMBER 10TH. SNOW
REDEVELOPED DURING AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
MOVED INTO THE HOUSTON AREA. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE REGION SAW A
CHANGE OF RAIN AND SLEET TO SNOW BY THE EVENING HOURS. SNOWFALL
WAS AT ITS HEAVIEST BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM LAST NIGHT MAINLY EAST
OF AN INTERSTATE 45 LINE. SNOW FALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A TRACE
OVER PARTS OF WESTERN BRAZORIA...HARRIS AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES
TO AS MUCH 2 TO 3 INCHES IN EASTERN HARRIS COUNTY. TRACE TO ONE
INCH AMOUNTS FELL ON GALVESTON ISLAND WITH GENERALLY AN INCH TO
TWO INCHES OF SNOW FALL FOR GALVESTON COUNTY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
FALL WAS IN A BAND FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY TO POLK COUNTY WHERE
SOME AREAS SAW AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW. BELOW ARE THE
LATEST SNOW FALL TOTALS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS:

...BRAZOS...BURLESON...MADISON...HOUSTON COUNTIES...
COLLEGE STATION - 1.5-2 INCH
EASTERWOOD FIELD KCLL - 2.0 INCH
BRENHAM - 3 INCH
MADISONVILLE - 2-3 INCH
HOUSTON COUNTY - 1.0 INCH
CONROE - 1.2 INCH
NAVASOTA - 2.0 - 3.0 INCH

...HARRIS COUNTY...
KINGWOOD - 1.0 INCH
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL - TRACE
CYPRESS - 0.5 INCH
DW HOOKS FIELD - TRACE
SPRING - 1.0 INCH
RICE/WEST U - 0.5 INCH
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT - 0.3 INCH
PASADENA - 2.5 INCH
CHANNELVIEW - 2.5 INCH
LA PORTE - 3.0 INCH
BAYTOWN - 4.0 INCH
HOUSTON (SE) - 0.5 INCH
ELLINGTON FIELD KEFD - 1.0 INCH

...GALVESTON...BRAZORIA COUNTIES...
GALVESTON - 1.0 INCH
CLEAR LAKE - 1.0 INCH
NWS OFFICE - 1.5 INCH
LEAGUE CITY - 1.5 INCH
PEARLAND - 0.5 INCH
SEABROOK - 1.0 INCH
SANTA FE - 2.0 INCH
SWEENY - 0.5 INCH
ANGLETON - 0.5 INCH

...CHAMBERS...LIBERTY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY COUNTIES...
TRINITY - 1 INCH
LIVINGSTON - 2.0 INCH
SAN JACINTO COUNTY - 2.5 - 3.0 INCH
MOUNT BELVIEW - 5.0 INCH
LIBERTY - 5.0 INCH
ANAHUAC - 4.0 INCH
WINNIE - 5.0 - 6.0 INCH

WHEN DID IT SNOW LAST? SNOW FLURRIES FELL ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION ON MARCH 7TH 2008 BUT THE LAST
MEASURABLE SNOW OCCURRED ON APRIL 7TH 2007 NORTH OF A CALDWELL TO
LIVINGSTON LINE. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW FELL ON THAT SATURDAY
BEFORE EASTER.

THE LAST MEASURABLE SNOW TO FALL IN THE HOUSTON AREA FELL ON
CHRISTMAS EVE IN 2004. SNOW AMOUNTS WERE A TRACE AT
INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT...BUT SOUTHERN SUBURBS LIKE PEARLAND...
WEBSTER AND CLEAR LAKE RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. FURTHER
SOUTH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW AFFECTED WHARTON...FORT BEND AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES.

FOR WHAT IT`S WORTH...THE LAST LAND FALLING HURRICANE ON GALVESTON
ISLAND BEFORE HURRICANE IKE WAS HURRICANE JERRY IN 1989. THERE
WAS 1.7 INCHES OF SNOW ON DECEMBER 22 1989. HURRICANE ALICIA MADE
LANDFALL IN 1983 AND THERE WERE SEVERAL DAYS WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN
DECEMBER OF 1983. PERHAPS JUST A COINCIDENCE.

[southerngale]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1015 AM CST THU DEC 11 2008

...RECORD EARLY DECEMBER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA...

A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW. THIS RARE SNOW EVENT IS THE EARLIEST MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL OF THE FALL/WINTER SEASON IN RECORDED HISTORY AT
BEAUMONT PORT ARTHUR AND LAKE CHARLES. IN ADDITION...ALL TIME
RECORD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER HAVE BEEN SET
AT BOTH BEAUMONT PORT ARTHUR AND LAKE CHARLES. SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL THIS MORNING AND THESE SNOW TOTALS WILL BE REVISED AND
UPDATED LATER TODAY.


SNOW TOTALS AS OF 1015 AM CDT:

TEXAS
-----
LUMBERTON 4.0 INCH
WEST BEAUMONT 4.0 INCH
WOODVILLE 3.0 INCH
BEAUMONT CITY 2.5 INCH
WILDWOOD 2.2 INCH
GROVES 2.0 INCH
SILSBEE 2.0 INCH
SE TX REGIONAL ARPT 1.8 INCH
NEDERLAND 1.0 INCH
ORANGE 1.0 INCH
PORT NECHES 1.0 INCH
JASPER 0.5 INCH

LOUISIANA
---------
EUNICE 3.0 INCH
OAKDALE 3.0 INCH
OPELOUSAS 3.0 INCH
FOREST HILL 2.0 INCH
DE QUINCY 1.5 INCH
VINTON 1.5 INCH
BUNKIE 1.3 INCH
ELMER 1.2 INCH
MOSS BLUFF 1.2 INCH
BELL CITY 1.0 INCH
DERIDDER 1.0 INCH
JENNINGS 1.0 INCH
LAKE ARTHUR 1.0 INCH
SAM HOUSTON JONES SP 1.0 INCH
WOODWORTH 1.0 INCH
SULPHUR 1.0 INCH
LAFAYETTE 1.0 INCH
LAKE CHARLES SALT WB 0.4 INCH
NWS LAKE CHARLES 0.4 INCH
LEESVILLE 0.2 INCH
ALEXANDRIA 911 TRACE

$$

SHAMBURGER

[vbhoutex]

The following is a report on the snow event in Texas and Louisiana from Jeff Lindner.

Historical and record snowfall across SE TX and much of southern Louisiana on December 10-11.


While there is no comparison to the December 2004 snowstorm (see attached PDF) which shattered 100 year old records…and dropped a foot of snow in parts of the coastal areas…this event still produced records…when it snows in SE TX it is likely some kind of record.

BUSH IAH recorded its first accumulating snow since a trace on Feb 1, 1994 and the 1.4 inches that fell on Wednesday was the greatest accumulating snow since 1.7 inches fell on Dec 22, 1989. Greater accumulations of 2-6 inches was recorded across eastern Harris County, Liberty, and Chambers County. Galveston Island recorded an inch of snow. Of greater historical significance was the snowfall amounts across southern LA with Lake Charles, Lafayette, and New Orleans all recording measurable snowfall yesterday. North of New Orleans up to 8” accumulated.

The snowfall at nearly every climate site is the earliest snowfall on record at IAH, Galveston, and Hobby, along with Beaumont, and Lake Charles. At Beaumont and Lake Charles this snow event is only the second time in recorded history that snow has fallen in the month of December.

Final Snowfall Totals:

Winnie: 5.5
Liberty: 5.0
Mont Belvieu: 5.0
Baytown: 4.0
Anahuac: 4.0
Brenham: 3.0
La Porte: 3.0
Pasadena: 2.5
Livingston: 2.0
Santa Fe: 2.0
Navasota: 2.0
Kingwood: 2.0
College Station: 2.0
NWS League City: 1.5
IAH: 1.4
Lake Jackson: 1.2
Conroe: 1.2
Clear Lake: 1.0
Galveston: 1.0
Seabrook: 1.0
Sweeny: .5
Cypress: .5
Hobby: .3
Sugarland: .2
Tomball: .1
Bay City: trace
Wharton: trace

Other sites:
Beaumont: 1.8 (all time snowfall record beating .4 on an inch on Dec 22, 1989)
Lumberton: 4.0
Woodville: 3.0
Nederland: 1.0
Orange: 1.0


Lake Charles: .4 (all time record beating .2 of an inch on Dec 22, 1989)
New Iberia: .8 (all time record beating .5 of an inch on Dec 22, 1989)
Lafayette: 1.0 (all time record…no snow recorded ever in December)
Opelousas: 6.0
Tangipahoa: 8.0
Baton Rouge: 5.5
New Orleans: 1.0


Tropical Cyclone Impacts and SE TX Snow:

At BUSH IAH it has snowed 7 times in the month of December since 1895 and 5 of those times saw a landfalling hurricane in the months before the snow event. While there seems to be a strong correlation…it is backwards as there are far more landfalling hurricanes than snow events so while the data seems appealing that when we have a hurricane…we will have a December snow…it does not work out that way when adding up all hurricane impacts vs. snow.

2008: Hurricane Ike—cat 2 at Galveston ---1.4” Dec 10
1989: Hurricane Jerry and Hurricane Chantal---cat 1 at Galveston --- 1.7” on Dec 22, 1989
1983: Hurricane Alicia --- cat 3 at Galveston --- Snow and Ice Dec 22-26
1961: Hurricane Carla --- cat 4 at Port O Connor --- Trace of snow on Dec 13
1929: Hurricane --- cat 1 at Port O Connor – 2.5” on Dec 21-22

[vbhoutex]

I'll be interested to hear comments from locals Tuesday or even tomorrow afternoon if they haven't followed the weather within the last 12 hours with all the major changes in temps coming. Local OCM's were/are hugging the models hard and did not start acknowledging the new push of "arctic" air coming in tomorrow until midday today or later. This is one of the reasons I rely on what I find here more often than on the local channels when it comes to weather unless is a currently unfolding event in progress.
What may be even more interesting is how the rest of the week pans out vs the models. I am still not seeing a reason to go against Jeff's reasoning on the weather for the next week. Some of the OCM's need to take their noses off of the graphics board and models and look at what is actually happening to their North(at least in the winter).

[jasons2k]

Latest from Jeff Lindner - sent about an hour ago and the front has since pushed past Conroe and IAH:

Long advertised arctic front blasting through SE TX way ahead of schedule.

Currently 38 at Caldwell and 42 at College Station then jump the front to 64 at Conroe and 66 at IAH. Down to 25 at DFW and 10 at Amarillo currently…so a very cold air mass will overtake the entire region shortly.

No doubt that cold air is on the way, main question now is how cold tonight and how much light rain falls. Arctic dome is very shallow only extending to around 2000 ft deep with warm moist southerly flow overrunning the shallow cold dome. Upstream temps near freezing have spread as far southward as Waco and the freezing line continues to bleed southward. Given very cold upstream temps. will need to visit the idea of freezing rain for tonight for the NW 1/3rd of SE TX or roughly N and W of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston. Low level air mass is extremely dry with surface dewpoints in the 1’s and 10’s across N TX advecting southward. Expect temps. across SE TX to fall 20-25 degrees behind the arctic boundary within the first 15 minutes of the frontal passage and then continue downward through the afternoon. Mesoscale models show light rain developing overnight as lift above the cold dome intensifies. These same models nailed the snow event last week. Given expected near freezing or sub freezing temperatures that will be in place across our NW counties…light rain will fall as liquid and then freeze on contact with the surface…freezing rain. This will result in some minor ice accumulation on bridges and overpasses and power lines and trees. Do not expect much icing as QPF will be light…however it does not take more than a thin glaze to result in hazardous driving. Will likely need a freezing rain or winter weather advisory for this area starting this afternoon and into tonight.

Cold arctic dome will entrench at the surface and fight against increasing southerly flow. Cold dome will gradually modify from top down as warmer air aloft gradually erodes the surface cold. Feel the models are just too fast in this process as they barely grasp this air mass to begin with. Will shows highs nearly steady on Tuesday in the mid 30’s to lower 40’s then slowly rising temps. Tuesday night through the 40’s and mostly in the 50’s on Wednesday before warm front passes Wednesday night. Could see some fairly thick fog develop along and ahead of northward moving warm front. It is going to be real nasty for the next 2 days with periods of drizzle, light rain, fog, and cold.

Strong warm front will pass through the region late Wednesday with warm Gulf air mass returning. Warm and muggy Thursday through Saturday morning before another powerful arctic front blasts through the area Saturday. This front looks even stronger than the current one and will likely result in sub-freezing temps. across a larger area. Large blizzard ongoing across the plains will lay a good swath of snow from CO to the Great Lakes resulting in little modification of this incoming air mass. Various models show differing solutions with respect to post frontal precipitation…although given the intensity of this air mass if something were to fall it will likely be freezing or frozen. A few of the models like the idea of surface low pressure developing over the NW Gulf of Mexico resulting in extensive moisture being pushed back northward into the cold air with high QPF. For now will just go with cloudy and cold…and see how things pan out this week.

[vbhoutex]

"Nuff said!!!

Jeff has continued to nail this!! Temp when I got up 1 hour ago was 51ºf is now 43ºf. The next week and a half could be very interesting!!!

[Tireman4]

Today: A 30 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 43 by 5pm. North wind around 15 mph.


Umm it is 44 now. Busting the bad boys of model huggin'. LOL.

[CajunMama]

NWS doesn't have us getting any lower than 51 this week and that's a morning low. Looks like your front won't make it here.

[Tireman4]

I would not be to sure on that one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1108 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
UNTIL 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

.A COLD SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASS IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>199-210>212-160400-
/O.NEW.KHGX.ZR.Y.0001.081216T0000Z-081216T1500Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZOS-BURLESON-COLORADO-GRIMES-HOUSTON-MADISON-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...
BRYAN...CALDWELL...COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...EAGLE LAKE...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HUNTSVILLE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
MADISONVILLE...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PRAIRIE VIEW...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WILLIS
1108 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008

...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO
9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A COLUMBUS TO CONROE TO
LIVINGSTON LINE.

PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FREEZING
RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS THE TEMPERATURE DROPS
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE INCREASES.
INITIALLY THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A CALDWELL TO COLLEGE STATION TO MADISONVILLE TO
CROCKETT LINE. HOWEVER...BY 10 PM FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AS FAR SOUTH AS
COLUMBUS...BELLVILLE...HUNTSVILLE AND LIVINGSTON. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL EXTEND TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA
IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S
TONIGHT...TWO TO THREE DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.

FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THEREFORE THIS WINTER WEATHER SITUATION
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THIS EVENING FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A
WINTER STORM WARNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES THAT
WILL BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS. ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES WILL MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS WITHIN THE ADVISORY
AREA.

[jasons2k]

They are still saying all liquid for my location. We'll see, it will be close. I could do without the ice.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dewpoint still dropping slowly, but temps starting to climb a bit around the area, as even a low angle December Sun can do some good through the low cloud cover. Up to 42 and 43ºF at Hooks and IAH. 2ºC colder than 12Z NAM forecast. If that 2ºC holds true as an error (and there is no solid reason to think it will, really) may briefly approach freezing at Hooks, but I personally doubt it would cause any issues.

In my amateur opinion, after being a bit behind the curve, the trained professionals at NWS HGX seem to be on top of the situation, and their Winter Weather Advisory seems, if anything, to show an over-abundance of caution. But in a situation like this, better safe than sorry.

[jasons2k]

Updated email from Jeff Lindner:

NWS has issued a Freezing Rain Advisory for areas along and north of a line from Columbus to Livingston from this evening to 900am Tuesday this includes Austin, Waller, and Montgomery counties northward.

Already getting reports of ice forming of car windshields just outside of Huntsville on I-45 from freezing drizzle.

Very cold arctic air mass continues to advance southward with freezing line moving southward into SE TX faster than expected. Models prog incoming short wave to generate areas of light rain late tonight within sub-freezing surface layer resulting in freezing rain and glazing of elevated surfaces. QPF in the College Station to Huntsville areas is getting borderline Winter Storm Warning criteria and the issuance of such a product may be needed this afternoon after a full review of the full 12Z guidance.

Hard to gage the freezing line’s southward progression tonight….but would not be surprised to see surface temps. fall near or below freezing from Victoria to Wharton then to Katy and Tomball and The Woodlands. Freezing rain or winter weather advisory may need some southward adjustment this afternoon or evening and may need to include parts of Harris County.

At this time ice accumulations of 1/10th to 1/4th of an inch will be possible in the advisory area. Glazing of this magnitude will result in very hazardous driving conditions with brings and overpasses icing and becoming very slick. Surface streets will remain wet due to warm temps. of late. Ice will also develop on trees and power lines, but should not become heavy enough for power outages.

Given the situation developing…feel temperatures on Tuesday will be colder than forecast this morning….will go with near steady temps. in the low to mid 30’s for most of the day…especially if icing develops just to our N and W.

Will likely send another update this afternoon after full 12Z guidance is in.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The dewpoint looks like it has stopped dropping at College Station, and has stopped dropping in the Houston area with dewpoints below freezing. Below freezing up towards CLL, but been stable for four hours at 36ºF at Conroe.


When precip starts, temps will fall towards the dewpoint, and as long as some fresh cool and dry air is coming in, the temps will stay surpressed.


Early this morning I noticed a slight increase in Northerly winds combined with a 2 or 3ºF drop in dewpoints, perhaps a subtle reinforcement of cold air in North Texas. If there is a little reinforcing shot of cool air coming, it might be able to bump Conroe's dewpoint to near freezing, but I don't see how the immediate Houston Metro area gets any freezing precip of consequence tonight.

[jasons2k]

Sent from Jeff Lindner a couple of hours ago:

No big changes this afternoon with respect to winter weather event tonight.

Freezing rain advisory remains in effect from 600pm until 900am Tuesday NW of a line from Columbus to Conroe to Livingston.

At 400pm current temperatures range from 34 at Caldwell to 36 at College Station to 43 at Tomball and 41 at Victoria. Freeze line extends from just south of Austin to between College Station and Hearne. Shallow arctic air mass will continue to entrench itself this evening while above the cold air dome warm moist southerly air will glide up and over the surface cold dome. The resulting lift will produce periods of drizzle and light rain tonight into Tuesday. Problem will lie where surface temperatures fall to or below freezing as this is where the fall light rain will freeze on contact and become ice.

Model QPF is generally on the light side and suggest total amounts of 1/10th of an inch or less...although a few locations in the advisory area could see up to 1/4th of an inch. Glazing of bridges and overpasses will be possible in the advisory area through Tuesday morning along with trees and powerlines. This will make travel extremely hazardous in the advisory area late tonight and through about midday Tuesday. May need to include N Jackson and Wharton counties in an advisory later tonight along with Victoria County as cold air is damming against the high terrain of central TX and funneling southward into this region. Would not be surprised to see a few hours of freezing temps. at VCT early Tuesday although QPF amounts in this area may only be around .01-.05 of an inch.

Across Harris County...generally most locations will remain above freezing. The only exceptions could be along and NW of a line from Kingwood to Cypress to Katy. Not confident that enough evaporative cooling can occur to bring the surface temp. to freezing, but will leave that door up as cold air advection continues and upstream dewpoints are very low.

[vbhoutex]

It is going to be interesting to watch what happens here in SE TX next week. Depending on which local OCM you listen to we will have temps in the 40's and 50's early next week or temps not getting above freezing for a few days. I imagine if one follows the models closely they could tell which model each station relies on by what temps etc. they forecast. It is amazing to me that they have a 20º in forecasted highs just one week out.

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Cold arctic dome slowly eroding from the top toward the surface.

Fog and drizzle is slowly lifting inland while continuing to hang thick along the coast. Arctic boundary remains offshore and will follow closely with the NAM on the forecast of slow erosion of the cold dome with a warm frontal passage early Thursday. Temps. will slowly increase through the day...although feel that the best we will do is about 50-53 given thick clouds. Temps. will warm throughout the night as the warm front moves northward. Should see a fairly rapid rise on Thursday with area being returned into the low 70's for highs as the entire area is warm sectored. Should see fog and low clouds continue through today and into tonight as cold air mass erodes and is replaced with warm Gulf marine layer.

Will maintain mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions as active SW flow aloft continues to bring moisture across the area and Gulf moisture returns at the surface through Saturday evening.

This Weekend:

ECMWF and GFS have now slowed down the next arctic frontal passage until Sunday. Will go with the faster ECMWF model and not the slower GFS suggesting a frontal passage early Sunday morning. Models are usually too slow and too weak with arctic intrusions....so I will side with the faster and stronger push. After highs reaching to near 80 on Saturday, will see temps. tumble behind the front on Sunday with highs early and then temps. falling into the 30's and 40's during the afternoon. Drier NW flow aloft will build in for a short period behind this front...however ECMWF is showing SW flow aloft developing by early Monday suggestive of isentropic upglide once again over the shallow frontal surface. Will go with increasing clouds Monday along with cold temps. remaining in place. Sub-freezing temps. will be possible Monday morning if winds are low enough...right now I am siding with the higher wind speeds and warm morning lows on Monday. May see a chance of drizzle and light rain develop late Monday into Tuesday ahead of another front around Christmas Eve.