Siberian Express January/February 2011

[Ivanhater]

I'm really liking the aspect for a southern tier storm though...the gulf coast region will be the battlezone.

For some reason when I upload the 216 image is shows some other time frame..Here is the direct link for 216 showing the 1060 High in the U.S

I can't tell if there is a storm along the Gulf coast on the Euro like that of the GFS.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... PUS216.gif

[northjaxpro]

The baroclinic zone Ivanhater looks to set-up in place in the GOM just south of the Gulf Coast and into Central Florida peninsula for this event next week.

[iorange55]

The north pole seems to have moved it's address to northern Saskatchewan after the intial cold surge!

Wow, that is pretty to look at.

[Ivanhater]

The baroclinic zone Ivanhater looks to set-up in place in the GOM just south of the Gulf Coast and into Central Florida peninsula for this event next week.

That sounds good I think...I really wish the precip was part of the free Euro maps

[Texas Snowman]

If - and I repeat IF - this whole set-up can have snow cover to work with, I'm of the opinion that this will be a 1980s style event.

While I doubt it will last as long as Dec. 1983, I think a week or more looks reasonable for near or below freezing weather in much of the southern Great Plains.

If there is snowcover to work with, I also think that there could eventually be some record cold with this. Models are just too consistent in painting some big arctic highs with mega pressures.

Bottom line to me is that everything looks ripe for long cold and perhaps severe cold.

And I agree wholeheartedly with Porta - we're closing in on the time when media outlets need to begin to prepare people for what's coming. Thursday evening at the latest I'd say.

[Ntxw]

The baroclinic zone Ivanhater looks to set-up in place in the GOM just south of the Gulf Coast and into Central Florida peninsula for this event next week.

That sounds good I think...I really wish the precip was part of the free Euro maps

The Euro doesn't have any precip or storms along the gulf coast beyond 200 hours. However there is moisture trying to return after hour 216. But that is so far out it's only speculation.

[northjaxpro]

The baroclinic zone Ivanhater looks to set-up in place in the GOM just south of the Gulf Coast and into Central Florida peninsula for this event next week.

That sounds good I think...I really wish the precip was part of the free Euro maps

The Euro doesn't have any precip or storms along the gulf coast beyond 200 hours. However there is moisture trying to return after hour 216. But that is so far out it's only speculation.

Ntxw, I was only speculating to my best educated guess as to where the baroclinic zone would be set-up observing the long range EURO by the middle of next week. You are right, it is a bit far out right now to pinpoint precisely. However, should the southern stream jet gets cranking next week, it really is shaping up to be quite interesting that's for sure.

[Ntxw]

Does anyone know if that one location in Siberia hit the record low for the northern hemisphere?

[HockeyTx82]

Does anyone know if that one location in Siberia hit the record low for the northern hemisphere?

http://wmo.asu.edu/northern-hemisphere- ... emperature

Northern Hemisphere: Lowest Temperature
Record Value -67.7°C (-90°F)
Date of Event Verkhoyansk: 5/2/1892, 7/2/1892
Oimaykon: 6/2/1933
Length of Record
Geospatial Location Verkhoyansk, Russia [67°33'N, 133°23'E, elevation 107m (350ft)]
Oimaykon, Russia [63°28'N, 142°23'E, elevation 107m (350ft)]
Instrumentation See below - Spirit Thermometer

If I remeber the post from the other day it said -90F so that would have tied it right?

[Ntxw]

^ well I know that the record was -90, I just wanted to know if it was broken. They were forecasting -92 for a time there but don't know if it actually verified.

Aside from that, with the EC depicting such cold in central Canada mid month, with a chance at a +PNA and -NAO, both blocks, no place to go but due south. Could be a rough January...what a change.

[HockeyTx82]

^ well I know that the record was -90, I just wanted to know if it was broken.

I don't see it hitting -90 in Dec. or Jan.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/sta ... story.html

http://www.wunderground.com/history/sta ... story.html

Check my math. Still colder then I would care to be in. Look at those dew points!!!!!!! You would dry out very quickly, talk about needing lip balm.

[gboudx]

Norman put out an SWS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
302 PM CST TUE JAN 4 2011

...TURNING MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK...

A LARGE ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN
END TO THE CURRENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER.

IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD AIR ARRIVING... A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND PERHAPS A RAIN SNOW MIX TO PARTS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK THE PRECIPITATION
MAY TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

THIS ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON AND ALONG WITH
BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY LOW WIND CHILLS. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE MULTIPLE DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW
FREEZING AND WINDS CHILLS BELOW ZERO. THESE COLD CONDITIONS COULD
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

RESIDENTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS ARE ENCOURAGED TO BEGIN
PREPARING NOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY COLD
CONDITIONS. PROVIDE WATER AND SHELTER TO OUTSIDE PETS... AND PROTECT
PIPES AS THE EXTENDED COLD COULD RESULT IN SOME BECOMING FROZEN.
ALSO IF TRAVELING... TAKE ALONG BLANKETS AND COLD WEATHER GEAR IN CA
SE YOU BECOME STRANDED.

[amawea]

I had just copied that and was about to post it when I saw your gboudx.

Looks like everyones getting onboard for this.

[PTPatrick]

Crappy disc from Denver office this afternoon. Not even any mention of cold coming down sunday. HTey have lows below zero sunday nigth in the forecast but they stop the disc at a weak low near the area saturday afternoon. Not to mention said weak low is progged to drop a 3-6 inches of snow in the area. Guess they are dumping it on the morning forecasters to talk about it.

[Ntxw]

Crappy disc from Denver office this afternoon. Not even any mention of cold coming down sunday. HTey have lows below zero sunday nigth in the forecast but they stop the disc at a weak low near the area saturday afternoon. Not to mention said weak low is progged to drop a 3-6 inches of snow in the area. Guess they are dumping it on the morning forecasters to talk about it.

That's surprising given Denver and the high plains will be taking the worst beating out of the cold. Subzero high days are not out of the question.

[PTPatrick]

Ha...they must have read my post because they posted an ammendment. :


SUNDAY AND BEYOND...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS POINT
TO A BIG WEATHER CHANGE FOR THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY. 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...AND THE 12Z AND 18Z RUNS OF THE NAM SHOW A
POTENT AND VERY COLD TROUGH DIVING SEWRD OUT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NRN ROCKY MTN REGION ON SATURDAY...AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE NRN
AND CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION BY SUNDAY. ACCOMPANYING THIS PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH IS A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WHICH MODELS SHOW SLIDING DOWN
THE LEE SLOPE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO NERN COLORADO BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. BELIEVE WE/LL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
WITH ITS PASSAGE AND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTERWORDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THERE/S STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO
SNOW AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE MUCH EXCEPT PERHAPS UP ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE WHICH OROGRAPHICALLY FAVOR
A N-NELY SFC-700MB FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET COLDER THROUGH
THE DAY WITH FALLING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
MAX TEMPS ARE LIKELY REACHED BY NOON ASSUMING CURRENT MODELS HAVE
TIMED ALL THIS CORRECTLY. A GUARDED ASSUMPTION TO SAY THE LEAST. AS
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONE THE WEST COAST THE STRONG
NWLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER US WILL DRIVE
INCREASINGLY COLD AIR DOWN FROM THE FRIGID NWRN REACHES OF CANADA.
COULD SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR IF NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
YOUNG WINTER SEASON NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...PROSPECTS FOR MUCH SNOWFALL
APPEARS SLIM. STAY TUNE AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH THIS ONE.



IN any case, it does look cold no doubt. At this point hard to say whether models are calling this colder than the early December 2008 cold blast. Given its January and not December and source regions would be colder and have more snow cover, I am guessing its going to be worse than that and that is the worst cold I have seen in Denver. In the 2008 cold wave we had lows near 20 below and a high around 2, and that is the coldest i've seen. I cant really fathom below zero highs in Denver because I have only been here 5 years. BUt the last time it happened was January 1997 with 60 hours below zero. In 1983 We had 115 consecutive hours, and in 1989 69 hours, and 86 hours in the December 1990 cold wave. I think we are pretty over due. Suffice it to say a high below zero would be a big deal here. On thing to watch though all of those streaks had good snow cover. We will likely have none other than what falls on Sunday with the frontal passage, and that remains to be seen.

[lrak]

What do the models say about deep S. Tex? If S.Tex has snow or ice the cities just shut down....no work

[Portastorm]

What do the models say about deep S. Tex? If S.Tex has snow or ice the cities just shut down....no work

Karl, there hasn't been a lot of consistency in the models about precip for your area and points south after next Monday. Every run of the GFS has a slightly different approach. Most of the pro mets have been saying it's still too far out to pinpoint any potential wintry weather. The cold looks definite. The precip will be the next piece of the puzzle.

[mvtrucking]

Not much mentioned in our disc but wonder how this would affect north central Louisiana? About the same as north of Dallas I would expect?

[srainhoutx]

Not much mentioned in our disc but wonder how this would affect north central Louisiana? About the same as north of Dallas I would expect?

Shreveport had a great discussion this afternoon...

MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE 1060MB POOL OF VERY
COLD...ARCTIC AIR SPILLING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIRMASS MOVING INTO OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. DETAILS CONCERNING THE LONGEVITY AND
DEGREE OF COOLING THAT WILL TAKE PLACE IS STILL IN QUESTION BUT
WITHOUT A DOUBT...THIS WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
WINTER SEASON. ATTM...PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF THE SFC RIDGING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND KEEPING IT THERE THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS
OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF WHICH PUSHES THE ARCTIC AIR TO FAR EAST TOO
QUICKLY. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BE WATCHED IN EARNEST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...BUT THIS AIRMASS AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DOES MIMIC SOME OF THE MORE NOTABLE MCFARLAND SIGNATURES IN THE
PAST...INCLUDING DECEMBER OF 1983 AND DECEMBER OF 1989. HAVE MADE
MENTION OF THIS IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...TALKING ABOUT
THIS AIRMASS NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MAKING PREPARATIONS.