SW LA/SE TX Winter 2012-2013

[KatDaddy]

I would not be surprised to see a moderate risk issued in later SPC outlooks. Travel will likely become hazardous Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday.

[vbhoutex]

Here is Jeff's take on the upcoming system:

MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
Increasing potential for widespread heavy rainfall and severe weather Tues-Thurs.

A powerful upper level storm system currently of the California coast will bring high impact weather to much of the state of TX this week.

Discussion:

The potent upper level system will dig SE into N MX over the next 24 hours resulting in the activation of the cold frontal boundary over the western Gulf of Mexico. This front will begin to return northward as a warm front, while above the surface strong moisture advection brings clouds and developing rainfall rapidly northward off the western Gulf by late Monday night. This is in response to deepen moisture profiles and increasing large scale lift. The powerful upper level storm moves into and across TX from the Big Bend area toward NC TX on Tues-Thurs. Surface low pressure will form somewhere over the lower Rio Grande plains and track ENE to NE across SC into EC TX Tues-Wed bringing a warm front northward over nearly all of SE TX. Widespread heavy rainfall is likely with this set up along with sporadic severe weather.

Heavy Rainfall/Flood Threat:

Models and HPC QPF guidance is really pegging the area with some large totals. Moisture level do increase significantly late Monday into Tuesday with PWS approaching 1.6-1.8 inches on Tuesday….which is above +2SD of normal for early January and at or above maximum expected values. This alone raises a warning flag for excessive rainfall, but combine those moisture levels with sustained lift and surface boundaries such as a warm front or slow moving cold front and the potential for flooding rainfall increases. Forecast soundings show a nearly saturated air column by Tuesday afternoon suggesting efficient rainfall processes…or high rainfall rates. Model guidance has been fairly consistent on the placement of amounts of rainfall with this event.

Expect widespread 2-4 inches across much of the area with isolated totals of 4-6 inches possible. Given already moist to wet grounds much of this rainfall is going to run-off. Additionally hourly rainfall rates under the stronger storms may average 1-3 inches suggesting a higher urban flooding threat. With the upper level system slowing as it moves into TX, the threat for training thunderstorms will be increasing and be prolonged from late Tuesday into Wednesday evening. Significant rises on area watersheds appears likely with the amount of rainfall forecasted.

A Flash Flood Watch will likely be required if forecasted rainfall amounts continue to look likely.

Severe Weather:

This system will be highly dynamic with a well defined warm sector spreading inland over the TX coastal plains overspread by strong winds aloft. Track of the surface low will be important for defining where the greatest severe weather threat will reside…best determination at this time is for the surface low to track from near Laredo toward College Station and then toward NW LA with the warm front moving inland across all of SE TX. Elevated instability above the retreating cold dome on Monday night into Tuesday morning will support a threat for strong to severe thunderstorms near the warm front or from north of Corpus Christi to Matagorda Bay. Low level wind shear will increase on Tuesday as ESE to SE surface winds veer to SW mid level flow and increase with height producing strong low level wind shear. Thunderstorms that develop along the warm front or in the warm sector will have very favorable low level turning in place for updraft rotation. Low level helicity values increase to 300-500 m^2/s^2 on Tuesday supporting tornado production in supercell type thunderstorms. Only limiting factor may be a lack of good instability with forecasted CAPE values of 400-800 J/Kg. The setup is similar to the 1-9-12 tornado outbreak over SE TX, only this event will be much longer in duration and wind fields slightly stronger.

Main severe threat will be damaging winds and tornadoes. Some sort of squall line or MCS feature may eventually develop over the coastal bend into C TX Wed-Wed PM and spread toward the coast ahead of a Pacific cold front/dry line. Area may very well be in for a prolonged (12-24 hour) period of severe weather threat from Tuesday PM to Wed PM.

SPC has already outlooked the SW parts of the area for severe weather on Tuesday and much of the area on Wednesday.

[GaryHughes]

I just hope we will all get the much needed rain that the models are showing!

[Houstonia]

Happy New Year everyone!

Latest from Jeff Lindner:

Heavy Rainfall threat increasing for Tuesday-Wednesday.

Powerful upper level storm system currently located inland over S CA will be moving ESE into N MX over the next 24 hours. Large scale ascent developing over TX over the next 24 hours ahead of this feature will help to induce surface pressure falls across S TX. Deepening surface low pressure over S TX will start to bring a warm front northward with this feature situated from near Port Lavaca to Bay City and then ESE into the northern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday. Strong 850mb low level jet will rapidly return moisture over the top of the warm front and surface cool dome resulting in the formation of light rainfall by late tonight. As large scale lift increases on Tuesday expect thunderstorms to develop along the warm front. Expect very heavy rainfall in these storms along with widespread rainfall north of the boundary to help hold the boundary roughly in place between I-10 and the coast for much of Tuesday into Tuesday night.

As the upper level storm ejects ENE to NE across TX on Wednesday a slow moving cool front/dry line will punch eastward into the area. While some of the models have begun to diverge some with respect to rainfall potential on Wednesday, feel that good upper level divergence on the eastern side of the upper level storm coupled with a slow moving frontal boundary will continue to produce heavy thunderstorms. Dry slot could impede development to some degree, but this feature looks aimed more at central TX than SE TX.

Heavy Rainfall:

Main threat with this event will be very heavy rainfall. Models continue to show PWS climbing to over 1.7 inches which is about .25 of an inch above the +2SD for this time of year and very near the “maximum” values for early January. GPS loops of PWS over the Gulf of Mexico do suggest an area of 1.8-2.0 inch values located over the Bay of Campeche and this plume of deep moisture should become ingested into the storm system and brought northward into the area by late Tuesday. While such moisture is commonplace in the summer, it is rare in the winter when storm systems and dynamics are much stronger. The combination of such high moisture levels and strong dynamics will produce some very heavy rainfall. The air column is nearly saturated from the surface through the mid levels which will support efficient rainfall production with little evaporation leading to high short term rainfall totals. Moisture of this magnitude will support hourly rainfall totals of 1-2.5 inches.

Flash Flood Guidance across the region is lowest along and SE of US 59 where rains have been plentiful of late. 3-hr flash flood guidance is running around 3.0 inches. Suspect the axis of heaviest rainfall will be along and SE of US 59 (or just north of the warm frontal boundary) at least on Tuesday night. It is likely that flash flood guidance will be exceeded and significant run-off generated in this region. Rises on area bayous, creeks, and rivers is likely. Street flooding will be likely especially under areas of persistent cell training.

Severe Threat:

Not overly confident in a significant severe weather threat will this system as instability appears to be generally lacking south of the warm front due to widespread clouds and rainfall. Low level wind shear will be more than sufficient for storm rotation with ESE surface winds under stronger WSW mid level flow. Main threats will be wind damage and isolated tornadoes. Should the instability be slightly greater than forecast, the tornado threat would increase over the are Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Extended:

Much focus on the short term, but the extended does bring another wet looking system into the area by the weekend followed by a strong cold front early Sunday. Appears rains may continue after the cold front Sun-Mon. Will need to keep an eye on low temperatures by Tuesday AM if moisture is still lingering.

[vbhoutex]

Flash Flood Watch has been issued through Wednesday.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
323 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-080530-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0001.130108T1800Z-130110T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
323 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...
BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...
MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...
WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING

* RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START EARLY TUESDAY NEAR THE COAST AND THEN
EXPAND NORTHWARD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL REGION
LATE TUESDAY AND WILL HELP TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS.

* GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THE RAINFALL STREET FLOODING WILL
BECOME MORE COMMON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WORSEN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TRAVEL MAY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. MAINSTEM RIVER AND BAYOU FLOODING
MAY BECOME INVOLVED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LARGE AREAL EXTENT OF THE RAINFALL AND THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
THE GROUND TO QUICKLY SATURATE AND RAIN TO RUNOFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

IF POSSIBLE AVOID TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT
DELAYS IF TRAVEL CANNOT BE PUT OFF TO A LATER TIME.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
AS FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

&&

[Jagno]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
343 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL SFC HIGH RETREATING EASTWARD
...WITH ENE TO E FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. VIS SAT IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL CLOUD FIELD INCREASING ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WILL INCREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING. TEMPS ACROSS THE
REGION AVERAGING IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER BAJA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS N MEXICO TONIGHT INTO TUE AND MOVE NE
ACROSS TX TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THE ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE RIO GRAND VALLEY AND MOVE NNE ACROSS E TX DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS...COUPLED WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT...WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHRA/TSRA OVER SE
TX/LA BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU. AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE REGION
WILL BE CLOSE TO 4 INCHES OVER SE TX/W LA...AND 3-4 INCHES OVER C
AND SC LA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE. AS MOST
OF HEAVY PRECIP IS EXPECTED EARLY WED THROUGH EARLY THU...A FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT LIKELY ISSUED BY THE
MORNING FORECAST RUN IF CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE.

ALSO...AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS ACROSS E TX WED...OUR REGION WILL BE
WITHIN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SVR WX...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISO TORNADOES A POSSIBILITY. THUS SPC HAS OUTLINED AREA IN SLIGHT
RISK.

GOING WITH THE FAVORED ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLN...THE SHRA/TSRA WILL
END FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY THU. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER IN
ENDING THE PRECIP AND INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR. NOT EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND THE LOW...AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS
FROM THE SW. WHATEVER PRECIP BREAK WE WILL ENCOUNTER WILL BE
SHORT LIVED...AS MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL UP AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
BUT STRONGER COLD FRONT DURING THE WEEKEND. THE EVENTUAL END OF
THE PRECIP REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS THE GFS/ECMWF DIVERGE ON THE
EVENTUAL FROPA AND ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT COOLER AIR NEXT WEEK.

DML

[jasons2k]

This is a dynamic link (it will change as it's updated) but as of now, the HPC is showing 6-7" totals across all of SE Texas. It looks like flooding will be the main concern with this storm. Stay safe everyone!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

[vbhoutex]

Jeff Lindner's latest update:

Significant heavy rainfall event increasingly likely on Tuesday-Wednesday with threat for flooding.

Flash Flood Watch in effect for all SE TX counties through Wednesday evening.

Factors continue to come together to support a prolonged period of excessive rainfall from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening. Coastal warm front will approach the coast on Tuesday morning and slow down as large scale lift arrives from the west yielding the formation of strong showers and thunderstorms along and north of this boundary. Upper level jet is forecast to split apart across the region favoring strong upper level divergence within a very moist air mass with moisture levels near the maximum values for early January. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will expand throughout the day across the region.

Warm front will attempt to progress inland Tuesday evening, but this is suspect as widespread rain north of the boundary may help lock it in place. Training heavy to excessive rainfall to continue along and north of the boundary. With moisture levels very high expect rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour in the stronger storms.

On Wednesday the warm front may reach into our northern counties while a cool front slowly approaches from the west with a slow moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms may also continue to develop in the warm sector and train across the area.

Amounts:

Models are really hammering the area with 4-6 inches of rainfall, but differ on their placement with two models favoring the NW ½ of the region, one the southern ½ of the region and the other toward the LA/TX state line. The heaviest rainfall will occur along and north of the warm front and how long this front takes to move northward will determine the areas at greatest risk. If the boundary lingers near the coast for an extended period of time the heaviest rains will fall along the US 59 corridor. It is just nearly impossible to determine where the heaviest rainfall axis will reside until it has developed. It appears the best upper level divergence is aimed at our NW counties, but models may be too extensive with convection in this region especially if a large storm cluster develops closer to the coast and helps “rob” the inflowing moisture.

Will continue with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals of 5-7 inches. Short term rainfall rates will near or exceed 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance so some significant run-off is likely resulting in major rises on area watersheds. Street flooding and ponding is likely.

There could be some serious issues for the Wednesday morning commute depending on if the axis of heavy rainfall sets up over the urban areas Tuesday night.

Residents are urged to review their flood safety measures and remember to never drive into high water….Turn Around Don’t Drown!

[BigB0882]

It seems odd that my area of LA (SELA) is in the 2 inch area when I keep seeing only 50% probs of rain. That sure is a lot of rain with only a 50/50 shot of even getting some. Are the models just in big disagreement about how far East the rain will make it?

[PTrackerLA]

After a very dry fall, December landed us in a wet pattern and we look to stay this way for a while. Just this past saturday night we had a "30% chance of showers" and it ended up raining most of the night and I had a solid 1" at the house. Standing water still abounds as the grounds are pretty much saturated and evaporation is low this time of year. If the 6"+ or more rainfall amounts pan out I would expect a pretty significant flood event for the area and there's another system coming for the weekend!

[LaBreeze]

After a very dry fall, December landed us in a wet pattern and we look to stay this way for a while. Just this past saturday night we had a "30% chance of showers" and it ended up raining most of the night and I had a solid 1" at the house. Standing water still abounds as the grounds are pretty much saturated and evaporation is low this time of year. If the 6"+ or more rainfall amounts pan out I would expect a pretty significant flood event for the area and there's another system coming for the weekend!

Yes, I wondering if we'll get that amount or not too, PTrackerLA. Stay safe and on high ground.

[vbhoutex]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 080250
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRAPHICASTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S MM BRIEFING OUT ON OUR
WEB PAGE COMMUNICATING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT(S). THIS EVENING`S LOWERING PRESSURES OVER CHIHUAHUA
MEXICO IS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE COUPLE OF
MID-WEEK DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS VERY ADVERTISED EVENT
IS STILL FORECAST TO COME TO FRUITION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS A WARM
FRONT SLIDES UP FROM THE COASTAL BEND. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIR
MASS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THAT...IN TANDEM WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE THE
(THERMO)DYNAMICS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE WIND/TORNADO SITUATION.
THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GOOD TURNING (BACKING) OF THE
LOWER 3KM WINDS LEADING TO HIGHER HELICITIES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOMORROW. THIS INDICATES A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
STRONG CELLS DISPLAYING ROTATING UPDRAFT STRUCTURE...COULD LEAD
TO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH A ISOLATED TORNADO MENTION. THE MAIN
THREAT STILL REMAINS HIGH RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE
FALL WITHIN THE 24 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS THREAT. TRAINING
CELLS...EITHER IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME TOMORROW OR AHEAD
OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...WILL CREATE
AVERAGE AREAWIDE 3 TO 5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). DARK HOUR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY HEIGHTENS THE NEED FOR STRESSING THIS
FLOODING THREAT. 31

[CajunMama]

It was 20 years ago this month (1/20/93 to be exact) that a cold front stalled between Lake Charles and Lafayette. I ended up with 6" of water in my home that we bought 7 months previous. I'm always a bit apprehensive in January. I hope nothing like this happens again and I'm keeping an eagle eye out on this weeks weather.

[vbhoutex]

EVERYONE in SE TX/SW LA needs to stay on top of this situation. NWS continues to hammer away at how serious this situation could be. Most models are showing anywhere from 2" to 8" of rain over most of the area and for that matter much of E TX. The set up is definitely one that could cause some substantial flooding in some areas if training rains set up. The low that will help cause these rains and storms will probably be lingering over TX and especially E TX through at least Wednesday evening if not longer. Remember TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN!!

[BigB0882]

Why can't this ever happen when it is freezing? Could you imagine the snow? I know, it would be crippling and perhaps as bad as a hurricane in damage for us but how about an 1" of QPF with freezing temps?

[Ntxw]

Why can't this ever happen when it is freezing? Could you imagine the snow? I know, it would be crippling and perhaps as bad as a hurricane in damage for us but how about an 1" of QPF with freezing temps?

If it was freezing the air wouldn't support as much moisture and you'd get less than the 1 inch ! A lot of rain comes from warm air advection from the gulf! Unless you get a super deep intense low like storm of the century in 1993 that pulls all those thunderstorms back over the cold air

Latest predicted rainfall amounts from HGX

[CYCLONE MIKE]

It seems odd that my area of LA (SELA) is in the 2 inch area when I keep seeing only 50% probs of rain. That sure is a lot of rain with only a 50/50 shot of even getting some. Are the models just in big disagreement about how far East the rain will make it?

Watch for the next update in the morning.Almost guarantee you they will raise chances of rain. They always seem to play catch up behind lake charles. Like pttracker said it he got 1 in of rain and we did as well at my house. Only had a 40% that night.

[Jagno]

Don't feel bad Big. Our local weather guy acts like it's going to be spring showers and nothing anywhere near what I'm hearing from every other met and weather service out there. That's why we come to S2K for the real weather news. LOL

[vbhoutex]

It seems odd that my area of LA (SELA) is in the 2 inch area when I keep seeing only 50% probs of rain. That sure is a lot of rain with only a 50/50 shot of even getting some. Are the models just in big disagreement about how far East the rain will make it?

The models are in pretty good agreement where it will rain and won't rain. The difference between the amounts expected in SE LA and SW LA/SE TX is because there is a blocking high over that area which will stall the low pressure over TX and turn in N to NE over E TX and NW LA. The stalling and the transit over E TX is also the reason for the excessive rains expected in TX.

[Jagno]

This is a dynamic link (it will change as it's updated) but as of now, the HPC is showing 6-7" totals across all of SE Texas. It looks like flooding will be the main concern with this storm. Stay safe everyone!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

Wow, and change it did. That 6-7" went up into the 8-10" this morning. I pray it doesn't come to fruition. I can't fathom another 8-10" on top of our already still floaded property.

After looking at it again it's a 7 day forecast so I'm sure that is combining this round of rains with the ones projected for this coming weekend as well. Whew, it's still not good but at least with a day or two break in between it might help a little.