Storm Thread for N VA begins Tonight into Jan 25/26.......
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Cheesy_Poofs
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Anonymous
1030pm......................................
Temperature is 14 degrees, ditto the dewpoint.
E winds at 5 mph. Windchill 3 degrees.
We have 2 inches, maybe 2.25 inches of snow on the ground with moderate snow.
On another thread I have been reading about frzra in the Carolinas for tomorrow.
What does that mean for us up here in N VA tomorrow and/or tomorrow night?
Will we be crushed by heavy frzra too?
Better get the blankets ready!!!!
Can you say, "Power Outages?"
Boy this storm is FAR from bein' done with the Mid Atlantic folks.
1035pm: I need to make another EDIT here folks.......
The snow is moderate to heavy.....some flakes are in excess of half an inch in diameter. Definately 2.25 inches on the ground and the snow continues to pile up!!
I'll keep ya all updated into the night..........................
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!! BRING IT !!
Temperature is 14 degrees, ditto the dewpoint.
E winds at 5 mph. Windchill 3 degrees.
We have 2 inches, maybe 2.25 inches of snow on the ground with moderate snow.
On another thread I have been reading about frzra in the Carolinas for tomorrow.
What does that mean for us up here in N VA tomorrow and/or tomorrow night?
Will we be crushed by heavy frzra too?
Better get the blankets ready!!!!
Can you say, "Power Outages?"
Boy this storm is FAR from bein' done with the Mid Atlantic folks.
1035pm: I need to make another EDIT here folks.......
The snow is moderate to heavy.....some flakes are in excess of half an inch in diameter. Definately 2.25 inches on the ground and the snow continues to pile up!!
I'll keep ya all updated into the night..........................
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU, GREENLAND BLOCK!!!!!!!!!! YEAH!!! BRING IT !!
Last edited by Anonymous on Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Alexandria va had heavy snow start at 720 pm whithin 2 minutes it covered the rd.
I went to a H Dean party at 730 pm, left b4 830pm and drove home on the snow cover{1.5in}
In my opinion, the snow will be a little faster than the plows until the dry slot hits here at 3am{we wil have 6 in by then}
Tomorrow night will be another system in what has become an active period.
Im flying to Fla Friday.
I went to a H Dean party at 730 pm, left b4 830pm and drove home on the snow cover{1.5in}
In my opinion, the snow will be a little faster than the plows until the dry slot hits here at 3am{we wil have 6 in by then}
Tomorrow night will be another system in what has become an active period.
Im flying to Fla Friday.
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Anonymous
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Cheesy_Poofs
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Look at this part of the sterling AFD!
" TO BE SURE...TOMORROW NIGHT/S FORECAST WL BE CHALLENGING. MORE ON THIS IN A FEW HRS. STAY TUNED."
Also, Sue Palka on FOX 5 just said the same thing...and said " accumalating ice possible tomorrow night." We'll see...
2" on the ground right now in Howard County.
" TO BE SURE...TOMORROW NIGHT/S FORECAST WL BE CHALLENGING. MORE ON THIS IN A FEW HRS. STAY TUNED."
Also, Sue Palka on FOX 5 just said the same thing...and said " accumalating ice possible tomorrow night." We'll see...
2" on the ground right now in Howard County.
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Lowpressure
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- Age: 58
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- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
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Anonymous
Cheesy_Poofs wrote:Look at this part of the sterling AFD!
" TO BE SURE...TOMORROW NIGHT/S FORECAST WL BE CHALLENGING. MORE ON THIS IN A FEW HRS. STAY TUNED."
Also, Sue Palka on FOX 5 just said the same thing...and said " accumalating ice possible tomorrow night." We'll see...
2" on the ground right now in Howard County.
Man this weather is getting wilder and wilder and wilder!!!! Many of us won't be going anywhere for the next few days!!!!!!
If the 1.00 qpf's turn out to verify here in N VA tomorrow night, we could be getting an INCH of ice accretion here!!!!!
That would indeed be AS BAD, if not WORSE, than Jan 19 1994 with an inch and a half of ice from about four hours of heavy freezing rain!!!! That was a Monday, BTW.............. MAAN, THAT was one BEAST of an ice storm!!!!
Better batten down the hatches!!! Plus, I sure won't be keeping anyone updated tomorrow night, Cuz JEB'll be out of power, along with most of the rest of the Mid Atlantic region lol.........................
WHOA!!!!!! This is turning into one hell of a WILD RIDE!!!!!!
-JEB
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Cheesy_Poofs
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
Doug Hill, a local forecaster seems to think we will get more snow later tonight from a band to the west which could hike up our totals another 2-3 inches overnight. He alluded to a good deal of freezing drizzle through tomorrow, then possibly sleet and freezing rain tomorrow night.......uh-oh........then more mix on Tuesday.....................
WOW........Remember when I declared in early Jan that we would have a Mild Winter?
BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUSTed LOL LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MAAN, I'm Busted......................................
-JEB.
WOW........Remember when I declared in early Jan that we would have a Mild Winter?
BUST BUST BUST BUST BUST BUSTed LOL LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
MAAN, I'm Busted......................................
-JEB.
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Anonymous
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Anonymous
brettjrob wrote:Latest LWX radar loop shows that dry area completely filling in... I'm thinking at least 2", possibly 4" more before this is all over.
Agreed on that point, brettjrob.
1220am.............................................
We have fallen to 13 degrees here, with a 13-degree dewpoint. Winds are light. In the last 45 minutes the snow became very, very light, but then the radar has filled in and now there is snow from Woodbridge clear to the next band over the mountains! Hence brettjrob's post quoted in this post I am making now.
We have about 3.25 inches of snow. The lawns are completely covered with snow. Though its dark outside, it looks a lot lighter than that because of the light from streetlights bouncing back and forth between the low cloud cover and the snowpack and all the falling snow. We have light snow again, becoming heavier.
I'll be updating a while longer tonight.
Travel in N VA is not recommended tonight, tomorrow it will only worsen with freezing drizzle expected, then outright sleet and freezing rain tomorrow night. It's going to be a royal mess out there for the next day or two. Mixed precip is expected on Tuesday as well.
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
1255am Jan 26...................................
Temperature is 13 degrees, ditto on the dewpoint. Wind is N at 5 mph.
It's snowing pretty good; we have about 3.6 inches on the ground now, and working on 4. I think we'll get 5 inches; if we get into some good heavy snow, we might even see 6. I'd really like to see 6, but feel that 5 is what it will be. Then tomorrow/tomorrow night, that will be topped with freezing drizzle/freezing rain.
Fairly good winter storm for N VA. I haven't seen anyone on the road in front of my house for hours. The roads must be slippery with nearly 4 inches of snow on them.
At least one more update on the way........................
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Temperature is 13 degrees, ditto on the dewpoint. Wind is N at 5 mph.
It's snowing pretty good; we have about 3.6 inches on the ground now, and working on 4. I think we'll get 5 inches; if we get into some good heavy snow, we might even see 6. I'd really like to see 6, but feel that 5 is what it will be. Then tomorrow/tomorrow night, that will be topped with freezing drizzle/freezing rain.
Fairly good winter storm for N VA. I haven't seen anyone on the road in front of my house for hours. The roads must be slippery with nearly 4 inches of snow on them.
At least one more update on the way........................
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Anonymous
FLguy wrote:hey jeb, ya know how much i have one the ground 0.00" LOL
Sure I do FLguy...................But you never know what could happen there with that PV dropping down into the upper Plains with the strong Greenland Block in place and a 50/50 Low!!!
YOU might see snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You never know dude!!!!!
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!! BRING SNOW TO FLguy!!!!!!!!!!!
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Guest
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Anonymous
125am........................................
The winds are coming up again from the NE and ENE at 5 mph with gusts to 12mph.
Temp is 14 degrees; dewpoint is 14. Pressure is 30.23 and steady.
Light to moderate steady snow is falling; we are at 3.8 inches and working on 4.
This radar shows that precip had filled in over north VA. More showery type snow is moving east from the mountains. If this trend continues on the radar, we could well get occasional snow through the predawn hours. We are coming up on 4 inches of snow...............If this verifies, I think Woodbridge could get 6 tonight. As it stands with the snow to our west, it's 122am now, it should continue snowing through 215. If the radar returns continue to move east from the MTS then the snow could continue in an occasional fashion through the night. So I forecast 5, 6, maybe 7, tho I think that 7 inches of snow accums here in Woodbridge is a definate outlier.
Okay everyone, stay off those roads. Everyone on these boards who is in VA and MD please keep on updating folks as long as you can. Watch out for more snow overnight; and for freezing drizzle tomorrow. Everyone feel free to chime in at any time on this thread!
This is Jeb in Dale City/Woodbridge, VA, reporting from the Jebcast Weatherplex. Please take care, stay warm and stay safe!!!
This will be my last transmission tonight; I am signing off for the night. Good night everyone!
Over and out.
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The winds are coming up again from the NE and ENE at 5 mph with gusts to 12mph.
Temp is 14 degrees; dewpoint is 14. Pressure is 30.23 and steady.
Light to moderate steady snow is falling; we are at 3.8 inches and working on 4.
This radar shows that precip had filled in over north VA. More showery type snow is moving east from the mountains. If this trend continues on the radar, we could well get occasional snow through the predawn hours. We are coming up on 4 inches of snow...............If this verifies, I think Woodbridge could get 6 tonight. As it stands with the snow to our west, it's 122am now, it should continue snowing through 215. If the radar returns continue to move east from the MTS then the snow could continue in an occasional fashion through the night. So I forecast 5, 6, maybe 7, tho I think that 7 inches of snow accums here in Woodbridge is a definate outlier.
Okay everyone, stay off those roads. Everyone on these boards who is in VA and MD please keep on updating folks as long as you can. Watch out for more snow overnight; and for freezing drizzle tomorrow. Everyone feel free to chime in at any time on this thread!
This is Jeb in Dale City/Woodbridge, VA, reporting from the Jebcast Weatherplex. Please take care, stay warm and stay safe!!!
This will be my last transmission tonight; I am signing off for the night. Good night everyone!
Over and out.
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Lowpressure
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- Age: 58
- Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
- Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
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Anonymous
1130am Mon Jan 26........................................
Low was 13 degrees overnight.
It has warmed up to 19 degrees, dewpoint 19. We are progged to soar to 28 degrees this afternoon; it will feel like a heat wave compared to 14 degrees. I think its safe to say some locations in S VA will safely warm above freezing today so tonight may be plain harmless rain for them...........
Winds are NE at 5 to 10 with gusts to 17mph.
We got 4.5 inches of snow here, it is a winter wonderland out there!!
The roads are snow-packed. We have freezing drizzle; it's slicking things up. This is not exactly the best time to drive. Best to stay home today.
Check this out:
000
FXUS61 KLWX 261459 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
SOME CHANGES WILL BE COMING UP WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...
WINTER STORM WARNING OVER LWR SRN MD WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OCCASIONAL -FZDZ.
12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS A CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDING WITH NO
MOISTURE ABV -10C INDICATING NO ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO
THE CLOUDS. LATEST RUC AND 12Z MESOETA SUGGEST CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY-SLOTTED THRU 12Z TUE. THIS INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO
OCCUR FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT THRU 7AM TUE IS "OFF AND ON"
FZDZ. 12Z MESOETA NOW BRINGS THE SLUG OF MOISTURE (700-500 RH)
ASSOCIATED WITH NEW LOW OFF HAT AFTER 12Z TUE. BUT PERHAPS BY
TOMORROW TEMPS COULD CLIMB JUST ABV FREEZING IN SOME AREAS THAT THIS
COULD BE A RAIN EVENT FOR SOME PLACES. FAVORED CLIMO LOCATIONS LIKE
WRN/NCNTRL MD AND THE NRN SHENANDAOH VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FZRA. WILL LEAVE WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE CWA AS IS FOR NOW AND
WILL MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER ALL 12Z MODEL
DATA IS IN.
LOWERED HIGHS EVERYWHERE AND WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. HIGHS PERHAPS A
DEG OR SO ABV YESTERDAYS HIGHS. STILL EVERYONE BLO FREEZING TODAY.
AGAIN THINK THAT THRU 7AM TUE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR IS
OCCASIONAL -FZDZ AS CWA REMAINS DRY-SLOTTED.
ROSA
PREVIOUS AFD...
NOTE TO USERS...DUE TO COMPUTER SOFTWARE PROBLEMS...SOME FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE DELAYED THIS MORNING. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
INCONVENIENCE...AND ARE WORKING TO REMEDY THE SITUATION AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION BELOW UNCHANGED. -HTS
.DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER VRY DIFFICULT FCST TODAY.
STG OVERRUNNING EVENT ONGOING EARLY THIS MORN...WITH TTLS RUNNING SO
FAR IN THE 3-6 IN RANGE OR SO. SOME OF THE ACCUMS ARE BEING
MODULATED BY -PL MIXING IN IN THE CEN SHEN VLY AND SRN MD BASED ON
SPOTTER REPORTS. FURTHER TO THE N FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED AREA OF
SN WITH GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND STG DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CNVGC CONTS WITH
BIG DENDRITES...HIGH RATIOS AND RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SN.
COLD BOUNDARY LYR NOT GOING ANYWHERE AS MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES WK
PRES RISES OVR THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA ATTM DESPITE VRY STG WAA ALF.
GSO SOUNDING SHOWING 55KT OF WND OUT OF THE S TO OUR 10 KT HERE AT
IAD. SOME IMPRESSIVE CNVGC AND ITS GOING STRAIGHT UP.
PRIND SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WL LINGER ON IN THE MORNING...AND WL
TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THE SPOTTER RPTS AND RADAR B4 TWEAKING TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE PKG. ATTM APPEARS THAT PL WL BE CONFINED TO THE
SRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE CWFA BEFORE THE STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END.
LLVL MOISTURE THRU ABT H7 OR SO NOT GOING ANYWHERE...AND WITH LLVL
ISENTROPIC LIFT...-DZ WL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY. MID LVL DRY AIR
ENCROACHES DURING THE DAY...REMOVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY ICE TO
BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLDS DURING THE DAY. SFC TEMPS STARTING OFF
IN THE TEENS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH M/U20S SAVE FOR FAR SE ZNS WHERE
TEMPS ABV FREEZING LIKELY LTR TODAY. PRIND THE -DZ WL BE IN THE
"OCCASIONAL" FORM OFF AND ON ALL DAY WITH MDLS SPITTING OUT A FEW
HUNDRETHS OVR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE FCST TEMPS...THE DZ WL BE
FZDZ WITH SOME GLAZING XPCTD.
BEYOND THIS MORN FCST BECMS MUCH MORE CHALLENGING. MDLS COMING INTO
BETTER AGRMT AS TO DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
EARLY THIS MORN. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING PRES FALLS OVR HATTERAS AND
THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORN. THIS LOW WL NOT BE A BIG PLAYER OVR
THE NEXT 24-36H AS IT WL TRUCK E PRETTY QUICKLY IN STG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED STJ.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
A FAIRLY POTENT SUBTROPICAL SW TROF RACING NE FM SRN TX. THIS WL
BECOME A PROBLEMATIC ISSUE TDY/TNGT. WHILE THE SFC LOW OFF HATTERAS
MOVES E...SUFFICIENT LLVL ATLANTIC INFLOW WL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT
THE FORCING FM THE APCHG SW TROF WL PRODUCE AN AREA OF PCPN LATE TDY
AND TNGT. AGAIN...TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING
WITH LLVL FLOW REMAINING NLY THRUT THE NIGHT. BEST ESTIMATE OF QPF
IS GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND 0.25 IN E OF THE MTNS. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN WOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF FZRA AND PL. MDL SNDGS RIGHT ON THE
RAGGED EDGE BETWEEN THE 2 PCPN TYPES SO WHICH ONE PREDOMINATES
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. HOPEFULLY 06Z AND 12Z MDL CYCLES WL BE ABLE TO
BETTER PIN THIS DWN.
THE PROBLEMS CONT INTO TUE. MDLS AGREE A TERTIARY (!?) LOW WL FORM
OVR HATTERAS AND MOVE N. UPR PATN STGLY DIFLUENT WITH THIS LOW
TAKING MORE OF NLY/NNELY TRACK TO THE DELMARVA. AFTER A BREAK IN THE
ACTION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY TUES WITH FZDZ AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...A THIRD AREA OF PCPN XPCTD TO DEVELOP. THIS TOO COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN THE FORM OF ADDITIONAL ICING AS WARM LYR ALFT WELL
IN PLACE BY THAT TIME. BEING THAT TUE IS STILL SEVERAL PDS AWAY
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS OF TYPE AND AMT. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ACROSS THE AVAILABLE MDL GUIDANCE AS TO EXACTLY
WHAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW IS. THE CLOSER THE BETTER TO
AVOID A SECOND ICING EVENT E OF THE MTNS IN 2 DAYS. THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE FARTHEST W AND THE ECMWF AND ETA RIGHT IN THE MIX AS WELL.
EITHER WAY THE WHOLE MESS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE E AS UPR LOW LIFTS OF
THE MID ATL CST WED WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND. DIDN/T SPEND A
WHOLE LOT TIME ON THE XTND AS THE CURRENT PKG LOOKS JUST FINE...JUST
A FEW TWEAKS.
THE QUESTION REMAINS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT HEADLINES. PRIND THAT
THE CURRENT WARNINGS LOOK FINE THROUGH MON MORN WHEN STEADY SN ENDS.
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF FZDZ CONTG THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND THE
SECOND ICING EVENT GETTING GOING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE SW AND
MOVING TO THE NE...FEEL THAT PRUDENCE SUGGESTS EXTENDING THE WARNING
THRU TNGT IN MOST AREAS. AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFCS AND
MAKING BEST ESTIMATION OF WHERE HIGHEST ICING RISK IS...WL KEEP THE
WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHENR SHEN VLY...AND FOR
ALL AREAS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR SRN MD. IN SRN MD...NRN
NECK...AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WL LET THE WARNING RUN THRU THIS
MORN. LTR SHIFTS MAY HV TO CONSIDER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS.
TO SUM IT UP...BEST ESTIMATE ATTM IS TODAY SN ENDING FM SW-NE. FZDZ
WITH A FEW PERIODS OF PL ALL DAY. AREA OF PL/FZRA MOVING IN FM THE
SW LATE THIS AFTN OVERSPREADING REMAINDER TRUT THE EVE.
MANNING
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARN.
MD...WINTER STORM WARN ALL ZNS.
VA...WINTER STORM WARN ALL ZNS.
WV...WINTER STORM WARN ALL ZNS.
MARINE...NONE.
$$
Yeah folks we are not out of this yet. Sure you folks up north are in for the BIG snowstorm, but that ICE is truly BAD BAD news. The freezing drizzle is only the appetizer for the freezing rain tonight which will transform N VA into one huge outdoor ice-skating rink. One quarter inch of ice is plenty enough to cause accidents on roads that are already super-cold with air temps still in the teens and twenties.
I won't be trying any jebwalks for a while on that ice; the freezing drizzle has already done its damage on the roads. They were already snow-packed; then the freezing drizzle put down a glaze on that snow and its still in the teens.
Yep we have to watch out through most of Tuesday and Tuesday night, we sure aren't going to be BURIED under 12 to 24 inches of wind-driven snow like parts of the NE will tomorrow into Wednesday, but we will all be sliding on ice-slicked snow.
Further updates will continue here at the Jebcast Weatherplex.
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Low was 13 degrees overnight.
It has warmed up to 19 degrees, dewpoint 19. We are progged to soar to 28 degrees this afternoon; it will feel like a heat wave compared to 14 degrees. I think its safe to say some locations in S VA will safely warm above freezing today so tonight may be plain harmless rain for them...........
Winds are NE at 5 to 10 with gusts to 17mph.
We got 4.5 inches of snow here, it is a winter wonderland out there!!
The roads are snow-packed. We have freezing drizzle; it's slicking things up. This is not exactly the best time to drive. Best to stay home today.
Check this out:
000
FXUS61 KLWX 261459 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1000 AM EST MON JAN 26 2004
SOME CHANGES WILL BE COMING UP WITH THE MORNING UPDATE...
WINTER STORM WARNING OVER LWR SRN MD WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OCCASIONAL -FZDZ.
12Z IAD SOUNDING SHOWS A CLASSIC FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUNDING WITH NO
MOISTURE ABV -10C INDICATING NO ICE CRYSTALS WILL BE INTRODUCED INTO
THE CLOUDS. LATEST RUC AND 12Z MESOETA SUGGEST CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY-SLOTTED THRU 12Z TUE. THIS INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO
OCCUR FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT THRU 7AM TUE IS "OFF AND ON"
FZDZ. 12Z MESOETA NOW BRINGS THE SLUG OF MOISTURE (700-500 RH)
ASSOCIATED WITH NEW LOW OFF HAT AFTER 12Z TUE. BUT PERHAPS BY
TOMORROW TEMPS COULD CLIMB JUST ABV FREEZING IN SOME AREAS THAT THIS
COULD BE A RAIN EVENT FOR SOME PLACES. FAVORED CLIMO LOCATIONS LIKE
WRN/NCNTRL MD AND THE NRN SHENANDAOH VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FZRA. WILL LEAVE WARNING FOR THE REST OF THE CWA AS IS FOR NOW AND
WILL MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER ALL 12Z MODEL
DATA IS IN.
LOWERED HIGHS EVERYWHERE AND WENT WITH PERSISTENCE. HIGHS PERHAPS A
DEG OR SO ABV YESTERDAYS HIGHS. STILL EVERYONE BLO FREEZING TODAY.
AGAIN THINK THAT THRU 7AM TUE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR IS
OCCASIONAL -FZDZ AS CWA REMAINS DRY-SLOTTED.
ROSA
PREVIOUS AFD...
NOTE TO USERS...DUE TO COMPUTER SOFTWARE PROBLEMS...SOME FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE DELAYED THIS MORNING. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THE
INCONVENIENCE...AND ARE WORKING TO REMEDY THE SITUATION AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION BELOW UNCHANGED. -HTS
.DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER VRY DIFFICULT FCST TODAY.
STG OVERRUNNING EVENT ONGOING EARLY THIS MORN...WITH TTLS RUNNING SO
FAR IN THE 3-6 IN RANGE OR SO. SOME OF THE ACCUMS ARE BEING
MODULATED BY -PL MIXING IN IN THE CEN SHEN VLY AND SRN MD BASED ON
SPOTTER REPORTS. FURTHER TO THE N FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED AREA OF
SN WITH GOOD JET DYNAMICS AND STG DEEP LYR Q-VECTOR CNVGC CONTS WITH
BIG DENDRITES...HIGH RATIOS AND RAPIDLY ACCUMULATING SN.
COLD BOUNDARY LYR NOT GOING ANYWHERE AS MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES WK
PRES RISES OVR THE NRN 2/3 OF THE AREA ATTM DESPITE VRY STG WAA ALF.
GSO SOUNDING SHOWING 55KT OF WND OUT OF THE S TO OUR 10 KT HERE AT
IAD. SOME IMPRESSIVE CNVGC AND ITS GOING STRAIGHT UP.
PRIND SUGGEST THAT THE PCPN WL LINGER ON IN THE MORNING...AND WL
TAKE A LAST LOOK AT THE SPOTTER RPTS AND RADAR B4 TWEAKING TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMS FOR THE PKG. ATTM APPEARS THAT PL WL BE CONFINED TO THE
SRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE CWFA BEFORE THE STEADY PCPN COMES TO AN END.
LLVL MOISTURE THRU ABT H7 OR SO NOT GOING ANYWHERE...AND WITH LLVL
ISENTROPIC LIFT...-DZ WL BE COMMON MUCH OF THE DAY. MID LVL DRY AIR
ENCROACHES DURING THE DAY...REMOVING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANY ICE TO
BE INTRODUCED INTO THE CLDS DURING THE DAY. SFC TEMPS STARTING OFF
IN THE TEENS WL BE LUCKY TO REACH M/U20S SAVE FOR FAR SE ZNS WHERE
TEMPS ABV FREEZING LIKELY LTR TODAY. PRIND THE -DZ WL BE IN THE
"OCCASIONAL" FORM OFF AND ON ALL DAY WITH MDLS SPITTING OUT A FEW
HUNDRETHS OVR MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE FCST TEMPS...THE DZ WL BE
FZDZ WITH SOME GLAZING XPCTD.
BEYOND THIS MORN FCST BECMS MUCH MORE CHALLENGING. MDLS COMING INTO
BETTER AGRMT AS TO DEVELOPMENT OF SECONDARY LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
EARLY THIS MORN. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING PRES FALLS OVR HATTERAS AND
THE DELMARVA EARLY THIS MORN. THIS LOW WL NOT BE A BIG PLAYER OVR
THE NEXT 24-36H AS IT WL TRUCK E PRETTY QUICKLY IN STG
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED STJ.
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS
A FAIRLY POTENT SUBTROPICAL SW TROF RACING NE FM SRN TX. THIS WL
BECOME A PROBLEMATIC ISSUE TDY/TNGT. WHILE THE SFC LOW OFF HATTERAS
MOVES E...SUFFICIENT LLVL ATLANTIC INFLOW WL BE PRESENT SUCH THAT
THE FORCING FM THE APCHG SW TROF WL PRODUCE AN AREA OF PCPN LATE TDY
AND TNGT. AGAIN...TEMPS REMAINING STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN FALLING
WITH LLVL FLOW REMAINING NLY THRUT THE NIGHT. BEST ESTIMATE OF QPF
IS GOING TO BE SOMEWHERE AROUND 0.25 IN E OF THE MTNS. MUCH OF THIS
PCPN WOULD FALL IN THE FORM OF FZRA AND PL. MDL SNDGS RIGHT ON THE
RAGGED EDGE BETWEEN THE 2 PCPN TYPES SO WHICH ONE PREDOMINATES
REMAINS TO BE SEEN. HOPEFULLY 06Z AND 12Z MDL CYCLES WL BE ABLE TO
BETTER PIN THIS DWN.
THE PROBLEMS CONT INTO TUE. MDLS AGREE A TERTIARY (!?) LOW WL FORM
OVR HATTERAS AND MOVE N. UPR PATN STGLY DIFLUENT WITH THIS LOW
TAKING MORE OF NLY/NNELY TRACK TO THE DELMARVA. AFTER A BREAK IN THE
ACTION DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY TUES WITH FZDZ AGAIN A
POSSIBILITY...A THIRD AREA OF PCPN XPCTD TO DEVELOP. THIS TOO COULD
PRESENT ITSELF IN THE FORM OF ADDITIONAL ICING AS WARM LYR ALFT WELL
IN PLACE BY THAT TIME. BEING THAT TUE IS STILL SEVERAL PDS AWAY
PLENTY OF TIME TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS OF TYPE AND AMT. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT ACROSS THE AVAILABLE MDL GUIDANCE AS TO EXACTLY
WHAT THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS LOW IS. THE CLOSER THE BETTER TO
AVOID A SECOND ICING EVENT E OF THE MTNS IN 2 DAYS. THE GFS AND
UKMET ARE FARTHEST W AND THE ECMWF AND ETA RIGHT IN THE MIX AS WELL.
EITHER WAY THE WHOLE MESS XPCTD TO LIFT TO THE E AS UPR LOW LIFTS OF
THE MID ATL CST WED WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND. DIDN/T SPEND A
WHOLE LOT TIME ON THE XTND AS THE CURRENT PKG LOOKS JUST FINE...JUST
A FEW TWEAKS.
THE QUESTION REMAINS WHAT TO DO WITH CURRENT HEADLINES. PRIND THAT
THE CURRENT WARNINGS LOOK FINE THROUGH MON MORN WHEN STEADY SN ENDS.
GIVEN THE HIGH LIKELYHOOD OF FZDZ CONTG THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND THE
SECOND ICING EVENT GETTING GOING LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN THE SW AND
MOVING TO THE NE...FEEL THAT PRUDENCE SUGGESTS EXTENDING THE WARNING
THRU TNGT IN MOST AREAS. AFTER COORD WITH SURROUNDING OFCS AND
MAKING BEST ESTIMATION OF WHERE HIGHEST ICING RISK IS...WL KEEP THE
WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT FAR NORTHENR SHEN VLY...AND FOR
ALL AREAS E OF THE BLUE RIDGE EXCEPT FOR SRN MD. IN SRN MD...NRN
NECK...AND THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS WL LET THE WARNING RUN THRU THIS
MORN. LTR SHIFTS MAY HV TO CONSIDER ADVISORIES IN THESE AREAS.
TO SUM IT UP...BEST ESTIMATE ATTM IS TODAY SN ENDING FM SW-NE. FZDZ
WITH A FEW PERIODS OF PL ALL DAY. AREA OF PL/FZRA MOVING IN FM THE
SW LATE THIS AFTN OVERSPREADING REMAINDER TRUT THE EVE.
MANNING
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARN.
MD...WINTER STORM WARN ALL ZNS.
VA...WINTER STORM WARN ALL ZNS.
WV...WINTER STORM WARN ALL ZNS.
MARINE...NONE.
$$
Yeah folks we are not out of this yet. Sure you folks up north are in for the BIG snowstorm, but that ICE is truly BAD BAD news. The freezing drizzle is only the appetizer for the freezing rain tonight which will transform N VA into one huge outdoor ice-skating rink. One quarter inch of ice is plenty enough to cause accidents on roads that are already super-cold with air temps still in the teens and twenties.
I won't be trying any jebwalks for a while on that ice; the freezing drizzle has already done its damage on the roads. They were already snow-packed; then the freezing drizzle put down a glaze on that snow and its still in the teens.
Yep we have to watch out through most of Tuesday and Tuesday night, we sure aren't going to be BURIED under 12 to 24 inches of wind-driven snow like parts of the NE will tomorrow into Wednesday, but we will all be sliding on ice-slicked snow.
Further updates will continue here at the Jebcast Weatherplex.
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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