Winter Forecast for North Texas

[sertorius]

CaptinCrunch:
I agree with you-not that that means much comming from a Latin/History teacher. It does seem that we have some players on the field. I need something-I mean I've been following todays and Monday's cool down for a week with excitement and all it does is give me some wind and temps in the lower 40's to upper 30's-Man, what will I do if it actually snows here 1-2 inches??? I'm just suprised that the local mets are calling for 40's here on X-Mass day-I thought maybe they would have said 30's with the possibility of some light precip. But, they are the professionals and are prob. right!! Have a great day.

[CaptinCrunch]

Two Words:


Mcfarland Effect


.DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH A DEEP LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. AND RIDGE IN THE WEST. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY MID WEEK WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
ROCKIES AND BRING A DIFLUENT UPPER PATTERN TO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND CUT OFF OVER
NORTHERN BAJA BY THE WEEKEND WHILE ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS OFF THE WEST COAST.

AT THE SURFACE...VERY DRY AND COOL AIR WILL FILTER IN TO NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE MID 20S IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER
30S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A TAD COLDER
WITH LOWER 20S IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID 20S ELSEWHERE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WEDNESDAY AND
ALLOW SURFACE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT IN PLACE.
SINCE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LIMITED...WILL LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES MENTIONED. THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE BRIEF AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL LINGER IN THE WEST AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER AS SURFACE WINDS RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DUE NEXT TUESDAY.

LOOKING BEYOND 7 DAYS...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH ARCTIC AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS PATTERN OVER THE COMING DAYS.


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS...COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE COLDEST READINGS OF THE SEASON THUS
FAR ON TUESDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE. TAKE
PRECAUTIONS NOW TO PROTECT OUTDOOR PETS...PLANTS...AND PLUMBING FROM
THE COLD WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANOTHER HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED REGION-WIDE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...
WITH LIGHTER FREEZES ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
145 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE COOLED THINGS DOWN JUST A TAD MORE FOR TOMORROW MORNING. IT
LOOKS LIKE A FREEZE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST
WHERE IT MIGHT HOVER AT 32. I LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY BUT ONLY BECAUSE MODELS HAVE
FLIP-FLOPPED LAST FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY...MODELS DO NOT SUPPORT PRECIP
IN OUR AREA. IF THE MODELS STABILIZE ON A DRY SOLUTION...I WILL TAKE
IT OUT TOMORROW IF THE MIDNIGHT PERSON DOES NOT.

GFS LONG RANGE MODEL STAYS DRY UNTIL DAY 10...WHEN IT TRIES TO SNOW
ON US. MODEL PUTS A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER OVER KANSAS WITH A
500MB SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A 500MB
CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA AS WELL. USUALLY WE NEED SOME SORT OF CUTOFF
LOW MOVING EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OR MEXICO TOWARDS WEST TX
TO BRING SOME GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MIX...WHICH THE MODEL DOES NOT
SHOW. I COULD BELIEVE THE UPSLOPE PRECIP IT SHOWS ALL THE WAY FROM
THE FRONT RANGE DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLE...BUT WITH NO MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WE WOULD LIKELY STAY DRY...WITH MAYBE A FLAKE SQUEEZED OUT
OF SOME STRATUS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO BELIEVE ANYTHING THE MODEL
SAYS...BUT INTERESTING JUST THE SAME AND THE ONLY WEATHER TO SPEAK
OF ON THE HORIZON.

[CaptinCrunch]

Just talked to Old Man Winter last night, and he said he would be paying a SUPRISE visit to the Deep South next week for Christmas.

Stay tuned, as I will keep you informed on the ever changing forecast.


Thanks for your support!!

C.C.

[gboudx]

CC, when you gonna tell us the details of what Old Man winter said? It's not cool to withhold info man.

[CaptinCrunch]

CC, when you gonna tell us the details of what Old Man winter said? It's not cool to withhold info man.

Old Man Winter is a pretty tuff dude, and I would hate to upset him and cause him to pass us by or cancel his Christmas vacation to the Deep South, so I will wait a little longer before I spill the beans.

[gboudx]

Alright man, but I've got a trip to New Orleans planned on Xmas Eve. I'd like to know if I will be able to go forward with those plans, or go buy tirechains.

[JenyEliza]

Alright man, but I've got a trip to New Orleans planned on Xmas Eve. I'd like to know if I will be able to go forward with those plans, or go buy tirechains.

Tire chains in TEXAS? Is there such a thing (except in the panhandle)?

[gboudx]

Just in case.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/media/media ... safety.htm

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Will the "Watch for Ice" signs that adorn our overpasses and bridges down here really mean something next weekend.

[misty]

Are we only talking about coastal regions of the south or could we see some snow northward. By the way, this is a good site, thanks, I didn't know it existed.

[JenyEliza]

Just in case.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/media/media ... safety.htm

We can't even get chains in Atlanta!! Which, coupled with the whole TWO sand trucks in the city, explains why when it snows, ices or someone spits on the sidewalk and it freezes here, the town shuts down!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Are we only talking about coastal regions of the south or could we see some snow northward. By the way, this is a good site, thanks, I didn't know it existed.

Welcome to S2K Misty,

We may see a mixed bag of winter precip across TX. Snow to the north (D/FW), sleet in the middle (Austin), and freezing rain down south (Houston). It will depend on the SJS and how much moisture comes north and how thick the Cold air mass will be when the two come together over those areas.

[misty]

at least you have sand trucks, we have to empty out dump trucks and have people shovel the sand onto the ground in south arkansas.

[gboudx]

Just in case.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/media/media ... safety.htm

We can't even get chains in Atlanta!! Which, coupled with the whole TWO sand trucks in the city, explains why when it snows, ices or someone spits on the sidewalk and it freezes here, the town shuts down!!

I doubt you can get chains in Dallas. Dallas pretty much shuts down too when a wintry precip event occurs. That's only after they cleanup the thousands of accidents that happen.

[JenyEliza]

at least you have sand trucks, we have to empty out dump trucks and have people shovel the sand onto the ground in south arkansas.

That's the kind of trucks we have here. You mean there's another kind of sand truck?

[misty]

I hear tell they have sand trucks that just drive along and the sand comes out all by itself up north, maybe it is an urban legend

[GalvestonDuck]

at least you have sand trucks, we have to empty out dump trucks and have people shovel the sand onto the ground in south arkansas.

That's the kind of trucks we have here. You mean there's another kind of sand truck?

Yeah, there are trucks rigged with a plow blade on the front and a system that sprinkles and spreads the sand out onto the street.

[misty]

Please don't tell that to our poor highway dept workers down here, they would be devastated. They cringe when they hear ice

[JenyEliza]

at least you have sand trucks, we have to empty out dump trucks and have people shovel the sand onto the ground in south arkansas.

That's the kind of trucks we have here. You mean there's another kind of sand truck?

Yeah, there are trucks rigged with a plow blade on the front and a system that sprinkles and spreads the sand out onto the street.

Nope. We don't have any of THOSE (that I'm aware of). Lived here 37 years, and I can't recall ever seeing one.

Jeny