Texas Winter 2017-2018

[northjaxpro]

When will the gulf low develop?

GFS has wave of Low Pressure forming by 0Z tonight off the TX coast, then moves it east during Friday, taking the deepest moisture away with it. 6Z NAM this morning closes off Low by 6Z Friday morning and keeps moisture lingering a little longer near coast and SE TX into Friday morning, before clearing out by midday Friday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im an amateur at this of course, but i think SE Tx has a good chance of snow this afternoon if temps dont rise. Often the guidance gets it wrong on days like this. Heights aloft continue to drop. Might need some luck. The comparison to 2004 still interests me greatly too. Lets see if it plays out like 2004, but without the accumulation.

[wxman57]

I think that there's an excellent chance that coastal counties will see snowflakes tonight. However, a warm ground combined with temps above freezing won't allow it to hang around long. It could accumulate briefly on cars and some grassy surfaces, but streets should remain above freezing and free of any ice.

We're discussing requesting the U of H send up a balloon around noon today to sample the air aloft and determine if there is, indeed, no warm tongue up there.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I think that there's an excellent chance that coastal counties will see snowflakes tonight. However, a warm ground combined with temps above freezing won't allow it to hang around long. It could accumulate briefly on cars and some grassy surfaces, but streets should remain above freezing and free of any ice.

We're discussing requesting the U of H send up a balloon around noon today to sample the air aloft and determine if there is, indeed, no warm tongue up there.

I agree. Im hoping to see flakes fall if its around 40F here. According to the models, friday morning may be drifting away from us. They could be wrong though, such a rare event, they may not have a good grasp of things. Really appreciate your input!

https://www.weather.gov/media/crp/NWA_D ... 04Snow.pdf Wonderful paper on the 2004 event with some in-depth analysis. Something we can look at to compare that event with this one.

[wxman57]

One thing I keep seeing on TV is that we could have some sleet, POSSIBLY mixed with a few snowflakes. However, the vertical profile is definitely not one that could produce sleet (unless all the models are incorrect). Sleet requires a shallow layer of freezing air near the surface, with warmer (above-freezing) temps in the precip column. However, according to the GFS, NAM, and WRF, at no time today is the precip column above freezing. This points to a potential snow event, not sleet.

As I left the house in SW Houston this morning, I’m fairly sure that I saw something that wasn’t rain mixed in with the raindrops. It didn’t look like flakes, but it was much larger than the raindrops and it didn’t fall straight down. I think it was graupel or partially melted snowflakes.

Take a look at the projected vertical profiles for late this evening. They’re not much different from the current profile (a bit colder aloft). There is no above-freezing air anywhere near the precip column. That said, temps above freezing at the surface would not allow for any accumulations except for on cars and briefly on the grass. No travel issues. Streets should stay well above-freezing in most areas from TX to LA.

[jaguars_22]

The moisture looks to be moving south very quickly... It may be out of here by tonight?? Its a solid rain here in Victoria this am

[gboudx]

This thread is going to get popping quickly, COLD is coming. The storm system that will effect the southern plains and NTX is hammering the berrin straight right now and as this system moves SE it will continue to gain strength. It's going to drag down a lot of arctic air as it swings across, and I will go out on the limb here and say we get our first official freeze next Thursday or Friday morning.

Don't be surprised if we only see high's in th 40's Thursday/Friday and maybe even Saturday with lows in the 29-32 range for most of DFW and the surrounding counties.

We had a good bit of anxiety over model performance going back to last week. I want to quote this post from CaptinCrunch from a week ago.
Seems spot on now, except he was too warm on the lows.

It would be a good exercise to see what the models were forecasting starting at 10 days ago, until now, see the changes compared to what's actually happening. There was a post from Brent late last week where he mentioned a model was showing snow in Mexico with DFW in the mid-40's. Not too different from what we're seeing now right?

[wxman57]

We had a good bit of anxiety over model performance going back to last week. I want to quote this post from CaptinCrunch from a week ago.
Seems spot on now, except he was too warm on the lows.

It would be a good exercise to see what the models were forecasting starting at 10 days ago, until now, see the changes compared to what's actually happening. There was a post from Brent late last week where he mentioned a model was showing snow in Mexico with DFW in the mid-40's. Not too different from what we're seeing now right?

We don't have all of the models back to 10 days, but we do have the GFS back to 6Z Nov. 30th. The vertical profile for today is not much different from the current profile. The entire precip column is in the sub-freezing air, but the precip column was predicted to be shallower and higher up. In addition, the freezing level was predicted to be way up at around 8000ft vs. the current 2000-2500 ft (and dropping).

[srainhoutx]

NWS Corpus Christi reports rain/snow line dropping S/SE across their far Northern CWA. Expect a transition to snow across Cotulla/La Salle County over the next 30 minutes.

[stormlover2013]

I don't trust any models down towards this way for a snow event, usually when we have something like this it's always a surprise, could this be one of those who knows we shall see

[hriverajr]

NWS Corpus Christi reports rain/snow line dropping S/SE across their far Northern CWA. Expect a transition to snow across Cotulla/La Salle County over the next 30 minutes.

I find that questionable. Here in Del Rio.. well NW of there.. we mostly have had light to moderate rain with perhaps a snow flake mixed in. Yes radar is showing snow aloft ... but obviously one or more warm layers.

[weatherdude1108]

We got 1.75 inches of rain from this event. No snow. Bummer.

But, the EWX had reports from Kinney County of up to an inch of snow in parts of that county!

Not sure if it was verified or not.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
We are getting reports of snow accumulation of up to an inch in parts
of Kinney County, so we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
snow up to an inch on grassy surfaces. Temperatures are still above
freezing across the area and roads remain clear. We do not expect any
impacts from this snowfall.

[hriverajr]

We got 1.75 inches of rain from this event. No snow. Bummer.

But, the EWX had reports from Kinney County of up to an inch of snow in parts of that county!

Not sure if it was verified or not.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
We are getting reports of snow accumulation of up to an inch in parts
of Kinney County, so we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
snow up to an inch on grassy surfaces. Temperatures are still above
freezing across the area and roads remain clear. We do not expect any
impacts from this snowfall.

I have seen those reports.. interesting... if we did not have melting going on here.. it would be one hell of a snowstorm going on right now.

[wxman57]

We got 1.75 inches of rain from this event. No snow. Bummer.

But, the EWX had reports from Kinney County of up to an inch of snow in parts of that county!

Not sure if it was verified or not.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
620 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
We are getting reports of snow accumulation of up to an inch in parts
of Kinney County, so we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
snow up to an inch on grassy surfaces. Temperatures are still above
freezing across the area and roads remain clear. We do not expect any
impacts from this snowfall.

I have seen those reports.. interesting... if we did not have melting going on here.. it would be one hell of a snowstorm going on right now.

Keep in mind that the air aloft is projected to cool through the day and into this evening. The current profile across the southern Hill Country has a deep warm layer near the surface. That drops to below freezing in the precip layer late this afternoon.

[Tireman4]

This will be an interesting set of hours today going into tonight. The weather, as always, is ever changing.

[weathaguyry]

12z NAM 3km...

[wxman57]

This will be an interesting set of hours today going into tonight. The weather, as always, is ever changing.

I LOVE this cold weather! Bring on the snow!

[ronyan]

I'm a little behind. When did wxman lose the bet?

[Tireman4]

This will be an interesting set of hours today going into tonight. The weather, as always, is ever changing.

I LOVE this cold weather! Bring on the snow!

Oh gee, here we go again..man oh man...I swear I am going to go to your office and (if it snows) take a picture of you and the snow...remember, I am 5 miles from you..

[Ntxw]

DFW has been falling throughout the morning as second surge of cold air has pushed through and gusting winds. This should be making it's way south into the evening. Surface freezing line is approaching and located in Southern Oklahoma. 850mb analysis shows 0C well deep into Texas. Abilene and Wichita Falls is already near or below freezing.







I would say this is a pretty good early December cold snap