Deep South Winter 2024-2025-2026

[Ivanhater]

This obviously won't be anything like last year. But crazy to have any snow 2 years in a row for the Gulf coast if it happens

[BigB0882]

I'm definitely not holding my breath and it looks like I would be on the very western edge but it would be remarkable if anyone that got snow last year got some again, even if only a couple of inches.

[Jag95]

Yeah, we broke our daily record snowfall last year. Two consecutive years of measurable snow would probably be another record.

[Steve]

Yeah, we broke our daily record snowfall last year. Two consecutive years of measurable snow would probably be another record.

We (both New Orleans and Pensacola) broke all existing snowfall records. Haha. I have to go back to Louisiana a couple of days and was thinking about coming back Monday since it’s a holiday. But if snow potential trends up for the panhandle, I’ll probably come back Saturday am.

[Jag95]

18Z GFS is pretty much the same as the last run. The Euro shows flurries while the CMC shows nothing at all (less amplified). I saw where Tallahassee has the mention of snow in their forecast. Mobile shows the following in their discussion:

The latest guidance is advertising enough ingredients for
precipitation over mainly the southern half of the forecast area and
over the Gulf. The biggest question will be what form the
precipitation will be, with a cold and saturated enough airmass in
the lowest 15k`. Consensus in the guidance says enough for light
snow to snow flurries on the back side of the precipitation. The GFS
is advertising enough overrunning/southwesterly flow in the 750mb
and above to bring significant accumulations, mainly along and
southeast of I-65. This is a significant increase from previous
runs, and other guidance. The GEFS and ECMWF ensembles are hinting
at very small accumulations, so at this point, am just mentioning
light snow/flurries behind the rain. I would like to see more
consistency in the guidance before I go any higher than flurries,
and with this time frame being in the extended, have some time to
play with. Will keep an eye on it.

[Ivanhater]

18z Gfs holds serve

[Steve]

It’s a good bit less accumulation than 12z though.

[Stormcenter]

It’s going to snow.

[Ivanhater]

It’s a good bit less accumulation than 12z though.

True but I think that has more to do with more starting as rain and changing over.

If I remember correctly, the epic event last year was the 2nd system. The first attempt never came to fruition so something to watch here as well

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro much more accumulation in the eastern parts of AL/GA/SC/NC.

[Ivanhater]

18z Euro much more accumulation in the eastern parts of AL/GA/SC/NC.

And Florida panhandle. Big step toward Gfs



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[Jag95]

NAM is getting in range. It shows a surface low south of P'cola @ 84 hours with a narrow band of light sleet and snow on the LA/MS/AL coast.

[Steve]

Won’t be long until GFS hits the timeframe. It’s not tropical season so I’m not dusting off all the links. NAMs have ample moisture but delayed rain onset. If they verify you’d expect that to translate to snow and ice in the SE and up the Atlantic coast with the overrun where it’s colder.

[Jag95]

GFS is looking good. Much wetter. Wow. 7" in South Al and MS.

[Steve]

GFS is looking good. Much wetter. Wow. 7" in South Al and MS.

Yeah. Icon has rain out front. Canadian still running.

[Ivanhater]

00z Icon coming in much wetter. Models showing more and more . moisture every run. Good trend

[Ivanhater]

GFS is looking good. Much wetter. Wow. 7" in South Al and MS.

Whoaa. Keep the trends going. Last year's event kept playing catch-up. Went from a couple of inches to 10 the morning of

[Kingarabian]

Moisture envelope with a solid shift NW this suite

[Steve]

00z Icon coming in much wetter. Models showing more and more . moisture every run. Good trend

Agreed. I don’t know that much about winter precip above freezing. I’ve been hit with sleet in the 50’s once and I know it can snow at least several degrees above freezing. I didn’t cheat to look it up but maybe 38ish?

Looked it up and AI has up to 50 which is higher than I thought.

[Ivanhater]

00z Icon coming in much wetter. Models showing more and more . moisture every run. Good trend

Agreed. I don’t know that much about winter precip above freezing. I’ve been hit with sleet in the 50’s once and I know it can snow at least several degrees above freezing. I didn’t cheat to look it up but maybe 38ish?

I don't either, Steve. Something about a wet bulb or something like that