Texas Winter 2013-2014

[SouthernMet]

& here is your 23z hrrr - comes in line with the rap.. : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

(Please remember this is after light freezing rain tonight)

[Tcu101]

The most frustrating part of the FW NWS forecast is that the RAP model is backed by one of the best Models we have on this planet, The European and thus boggles the mind that the European model seems to be being discounted by the FW office.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

that's my whole point.. they must be behind due to conference calls/skywarn programs or something.. I want to see what they are seeing to not go ahead and up to the warning criteria, maybe they just want to be sure, before they do it & not jump the gun.

What type of warning? What is the criteria for an Ice Storm Warning?

[Ntxw]

Interesting the conservative forecasts. Soundings looks favorable for an icy mess. There is a warm nose but it's a dry warm (and small) nose that could be overcome easily with precipitation and late in the RAP run actually looks somewhat favorable for slightly wet snow. Usually when temps bust low (below freezing) with incoming precipitation it's never a good outcome for forecasters.

[ludosc]

I live just west of downtown fort worth. Just went to the store to grab a few things and the roads here are ok at the moment (we've been pretty dry most of the day). However, the fog/freezing drizzle has picked up and there is now a thin layer of ice on anything metal in my backyard.

[SouthernMet]

The most frustrating part of the FW NWS forecast is that the RAP model is backed by one of the best Models we have on this planet, The European and thus boggles the mind that the European model seems to be being discounted by the FW office.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

that's my whole point.. they must be behind due to conference calls/skywarn programs or something.. I want to see what they are seeing to not go ahead and up to the warning criteria, maybe they just want to be sure, before they do it & not jump the gun.

What type of warning? What is the criteria for an Ice Storm Warning?

an ice storm warning is usually for over .25" of freezing rain accumulation, so maybe for some of our counties, but .25" of freezing rain would just be horrible, it looks like the band that's going to bring us most of the problems is going to be mostly sleet, so maybe a winter storm warning, it just depends.

[ludosc]

that's a lot further south than i would expected this soon

Carol Riddle ‏@TheCrimeDolphin 2m
@DFWscanner S\B 287 from W/B 20 overpass has thin sheet of ice. Car infront just spun out and hit wall but was able to drive off. Watch out!

[TarrantWx]

& here is your 23z hrrr - comes in line with the rap.. : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

(Please remember this is after light freezing rain tonight)

Yikes! That's quite a band of moderate precip at the end of the run that extends from DFW to west of Abilene. The entire band is moving east. Which means that based off of this run of the RUC there would be moderate freezing/frozen precipitation for an extended period in the DFW area.

[TexasF6]

Uhmmm....It went from 35 at my work in Round Rock? To 33 at The Longhorn Wx Center in NW Austin????!!!!!! This was an hour ago..........

[ludosc]

NWS Fort Worth ‏@NWSFortWorth 56s
Accidents occurring in Parker Co on I-20 between Weatherford/Fort Worth. Please don't venture out. A light glaze is still dangerous! #txwx

[Tcu101]

Thanks !
.25" of whatever falls would not be good with these temps

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Don't need models I just drove it, if the roads are already icy in northern half of Denton and Collin counties. As traffic dies down the same will happen further south.

If you need to verify what a model is trying to say, go drive any farm road north of 380. Not to mention 380 itself.

[WeatherDuck]

30 in Temple. Already broke the NWS forecast low of 31.

[opticsguy]

Just went outside, 3 miles east of KADS (Addison). Plants and cars have a thin layer of ice (very thin).

[WeatherNewbie]

Around what time is the precipitation band supposed to start forming in the Metroplex?

[SouthernMet]

00z rap continues trend, shows atleast .25" qpf at dfw with light precip at the end of the run. but it also showed snowfall accumulations at the end of the run which may mean sleet as I said earlier.. Either way a moderate band, with decent qpf, looks more likely for dfw tomorrow morning with temps well below freezing.

[TarrantWx]

Around what time is the precipitation band supposed to start forming in the Metroplex?

The 00z RAP continues its trend, it shows a light band of preciptation forming over the metroplex by 7am. This band then merges with a band of preciptation moving north from central texas over the metroplex between 10 and 11 producing moderate precip until at least noon when the model run ends.

Keep in mind this is just what one model shows and is by no means an official forecast for DFW.

[TheProfessor]

Don't need models I just drove it, if the roads are already icy in northern half of Denton and Collin counties. As traffic dies down the same will happen further south.

If you need to verify what a model is trying to say, go drive any farm road north of 380. Not to mention 380 itself.

You can count parts of southern Denton county, my parents said 114 in Trophy club was icy, and that was a couple of hours ago.

[Houstonia]

Jeff Lindner speaks of ominous storm for SE U.S.:

Winter refuses to give up…

Freezing Rain Advisory in effect for the following counties from 300am into Tuesday night for the following counties:
Houston, Trinity, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Madison, Brazos, Grimes, Burleson, and Washington

Incoming arctic air mass continues to push southward into the region with 700pm temperatures ranging from 38 at College Station to 42 at BUSH IAH and 46 at Palacios under gusty north winds. Warm air continues to overrun the shallow cold dome in the mid layers. In fact the latest HRRR sounding for IAH shows a temperature of 42 at the surface warming to 50 degrees at 2900 ft. Flow aloft will continue to support warm moist advection of Gulf air mass over the shallow cold dome into Tuesday evening as incoming upper level storm system helps foster this process. Expect light to moderate rain to continue in favored band of ascent generally along/SE of US 59 corridor this evening then becoming more widespread on Tuesday as increasing lift arrives from the west.

P-type:

This is a freezing rain event for the advisory counties is surface temperatures can fall to the freezing mark. Given such warm air aloft it will be all liquid falling to the surface and then freezing on contact if the surface is at or below freezing. Looking at dewpoints this evening and a review of the low level soundings do not show a lot of room for evaporative cooling…unlike the previous winter weather events this year. Hence precipitation falling will not help to cool the surface temperature. In fact all dewpoints are above freezing across all of the area currently. So how can the temperature be reduced to the freezing mark…through cold air advection or the southward transport of colder and drier air from north TX. This process is ongoing and has been all afternoon helping to slowly lower the surface air and dewpoint temperatures yet at the same time keeping the low levels near saturation. Cold air advection will continue all night and into Tuesday and this should come close to lowering the surface air temperature to at/below freezing north of a line from Brenham to Huntsville to Livingston. Drizzle and light rain in this area will likely transition over to freezing drizzle/rain after 400am Tuesday and possibly continue through much of the day as temperatures hover in the low 30’s.

Do not expect any sleet given the warm layer in the mid levels…hence the Freezing Rain Advisory verses a Winter Weather Advisory.

Accumulation:

Ice accumulations of .01 to .10 of an inch will be possible in the advisory area especially from I-45 eastward. Portions of the advisory area around Lake Livingston WNW to near Crockett are very close to possible accumulations upwards of .15 of an inch which would push these areas into Winter Storm Warning criteria of .12 of an inch accumulation. Think the most likely impacts will be to bridges and overpasses and ice on all elevated objects. Accumulation may be slow to form with marginal temperatures Tuesday morning…but worsen during the late morning hours as temperatures remain at or below freezing for several hours allowing objects and pavement to cool. I am a little concerned that guidance is underplaying the QPF…as so far parts of the area have already picked up .40 to .70 of an inch of rainfall today…but this higher axis of rainfall appears to be displaced just south of where the freezing line may end up. Would not be surprised to see portions of the eastern part of the advisory area upgraded to a warning late tonight or early Tuesday morning.

Houston Metro:

No guidance is indicating freezing temperatures reaching this far southward and expect a very cold rain with this system. Do not expect enough cold air advection to lower the temperature enough to result in freezing rain or ice accumulation.


Southern US:

SE TX is at the formative edge of what looks to become a crippling ice storm across much of the southern US from Louisiana into the Carolinas that has the potential to have long lasting societal and economic impacts. A quick look at forecast surface temperatures and expected QPF (rainfall amounts) over much of Georgia into South Carolina indicate some very ominous ice amounts. Generated liquid precipitation of 1.0-1.75 inch in surface temperatures in the upper 20’s is possible from central/north GA into NC. Ice accumulation grids indicate devastating amounts of ice on the order of .50-1.25 inches. Ice accumulation of this magnitude will result in considerable damage to vegetation and above ground power infrastructure. The event duration is also impressive possibly lasting 36-48 hours of freezing rain which is how you can get some of those very impressive amounts of ice accumulation.

[orangeblood]

Around what time is the precipitation band supposed to start forming in the Metroplex?

The 00z RAP continues its trend, it shows a light band of preciptation forming over the metroplex by 7am. This band then merges with a band of preciptation moving north from central texas over the metroplex between 10 and 11 producing moderate precip until at least noon when the model run ends.

Keep in mind this is just what one model shows and is by no means an official forecast for DFW.

Actually two models, the other being one of the most respected models in the Met Community, The Euro. Which by ignoring this model, some on here believe is on the verge being irresponsible.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

CAn someone explain to me how coastal lows form all of a sudden? They seem to happen when short waves come into the vicinity of the coast but i really have no clue.... Havent figured that out yet..... HALP!??!?!?