Texas Winter 2017-2018

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS has been pretty stable in the long range keeping most of Texas mild. The 00z run actually has very few members even getting DFW below freezing beyond D7 or so with all the cold air over in Russia. As posted above, MJO P8 -AO/NAO would typically be considered a cold look for Texas. Interesting period setting up and I keep expecting the ensembles to flip but still waiting.

[hamburgerman7070]

John Homenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
All eyes should be on the Kara/Barents Sea, where the ECMWF EPS are beginning to signal the development of a large blocking ridge in the wake of a major stratospheric warming event

[missygirl810]

John Homenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
All eyes should be on the Kara/Barents Sea, where the ECMWF EPS are beginning to signal the development of a large blocking ridge in the wake of a major stratospheric warming event

What would that mean for us?

[bubba hotep]

The Euro EPS has been pretty stable in the long range keeping most of Texas mild. The 00z run actually has very few members even getting DFW below freezing beyond D7 or so with all the cold air over in Russia. As posted above, MJO P8 -AO/NAO would typically be considered a cold look for Texas. Interesting period setting up and I keep expecting the ensembles to flip but still waiting.

Looking again, the neutral EPO and positive WPO are probably driving the milder look in the longer range.

[hamburgerman7070]

John Homenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
All eyes should be on the Kara/Barents Sea, where the ECMWF EPS are beginning to signal the development of a large blocking ridge in the wake of a major stratospheric warming event

What would that mean for us?

I have no idea. This guy is a consultant meteorologist from NY. Was curious as well. If it happens like that

[aggiecutter]

Nearly 2" of rain last night in Texarkana.

[orangeblood]

John Homenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
All eyes should be on the Kara/Barents Sea, where the ECMWF EPS are beginning to signal the development of a large blocking ridge in the wake of a major stratospheric warming event

Don't believe it will mean much for us unless it can hook up with an Alaskan/Bering Sea ridge...if not, cold air will probably stay on the other side of the globe in Russia

[hamburgerman7070]

John Homenuk
John Homenuk
@jhomenuk
All eyes should be on the Kara/Barents Sea, where the ECMWF EPS are beginning to signal the development of a large blocking ridge in the wake of a major stratospheric warming event

Don't believe it will mean much for us unless it can hook up with an Alaskan/Bering Sea ridge...if not, cold air will probably stay on the other side of the globe in Russia

Orangeblood, he mentions that possibility with increasing Alaska ridging and -ao/nao couplet on eps toward mid/end Feb.

[Brent]

models seem to be back to the usual "east of us" for most of the rain coming up

Still need something to dig...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hey guys! Missed alot of analysis over the last week and a half. Come home from vacation and the market is going nuts, so I've been very busy. Glad to see you guys in North Texas got some winter weather.

[bubba hotep]

models seem to be back to the usual "east of us" for most of the rain coming up

Still need something to dig...

It doesn't seem to matter what the models show beyond D7, it appears that every system is going to trend to a more progressive look. Luckily, we scored decent rain with this last system but the Panhandle and back into the SW continue to hurt for any kind of precipitation.

[Portastorm]

models seem to be back to the usual "east of us" for most of the rain coming up

Still need something to dig...

It doesn't seem to matter what the models show beyond D7, it appears that every system is going to trend to a more progressive look. Luckily, we scored decent rain with this last system but the Panhandle and back into the SW continue to hurt for any kind of precipitation.

So what do we need ... a negative NAO for Greenland blocking? A southeast CONUS ridge?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Id love to still see some type of winter weather but at this point I’m more interested in rain. It’s been over 3.5 months since we’ve had any measurable precipitation. It’s already bad here and doesn’t seem like we can even buy a drop of any type of precip.

[Brent]

Id love to still see some type of winter weather but at this point I’m more interested in rain. It’s been over 3.5 months since we’ve had any measurable precipitation. It’s already bad here and doesn’t seem like we can even buy a drop of any type of precip.

yeah the thunderstorms here last night were the highlight to me... I knew it wasn't going to ice anyway in DFW Lol

its not over yet for winter but time starts running against us before long and I just want to see a wetter pattern if nothing else

oh and I definitely think there needs to be a SE ridge if we're gonna have any hope, something has to slow down the pattern or it'll keep blowing up past us

[Yukon Cornelius]

Id love to still see some type of winter weather but at this point I’m more interested in rain. It’s been over 3.5 months since we’ve had any measurable precipitation. It’s already bad here and doesn’t seem like we can even buy a drop of any type of precip.

yeah the thunderstorms here last night were the highlight to me... I knew it wasn't going to ice anyway in DFW Lol

its not over yet for winter but time starts running against us before long and I just want to see a wetter pattern if nothing else

oh and I definitely think there needs to be a SE ridge if we're gonna have any hope, something has to slow down the pattern or it'll keep blowing up past us

I definitely agree

[Brent]

very little rain on the Euro in DFW the entire 12z run and certainly nothing wintry

[Ralph's Weather]

I received over 3.5" of rain last night. Temps are holding in the mid 30s with thick cloud cover so far today.

Hoping that the SSW results in -AO/-NAO. That is typical of a SSW, but we will see. Been a long time since we have seen a real SSW event which is likely part of the reason we have seen very little Atlantic blocking over the past 5 or so years.

[orangeblood]

models seem to be back to the usual "east of us" for most of the rain coming up

Still need something to dig...

It doesn't seem to matter what the models show beyond D7, it appears that every system is going to trend to a more progressive look. Luckily, we scored decent rain with this last system but the Panhandle and back into the SW continue to hurt for any kind of precipitation.

So what do we need ... a negative NAO for Greenland blocking? A southeast CONUS ridge?

Not sure about southeast ridge....Plenty of cold air across Canada right now but nearly every one of these HP's that are heading south are getting very little push and/or facing a lot of resistance. With the WPO forecast to turn positive over the next few days, I fear Canada may begin losing its cold as well. Extremely frustrating back to back winters in the N/2 of the southern plains as nothing can seem to align correctly!!!

[Brent]

It doesn't seem to matter what the models show beyond D7, it appears that every system is going to trend to a more progressive look. Luckily, we scored decent rain with this last system but the Panhandle and back into the SW continue to hurt for any kind of precipitation.

So what do we need ... a negative NAO for Greenland blocking? A southeast CONUS ridge?

Not sure about southeast ridge....Plenty of cold air across Canada right now but nearly every one of these HP's that are heading south are getting very little push and/or facing a lot of resistance. With the WPO forecast to turn positive over the next few days, I fear Canada may begin losing its cold as well. Extremely frustrating back to back winters in the N/2 of the southern plains as nothing can seem to align correctly!!!

3 winters... 15-16 was a disaster too...

I was thinking SE ridge because several DFW winter storms this decade thats been a feature

[dhweather]

I received over 3.5" of rain last night. Temps are holding in the mid 30s with thick cloud cover so far today.

Hoping that the SSW results in -AO/-NAO. That is typical of a SSW, but we will see. Been a long time since we have seen a real SSW event which is likely part of the reason we have seen very little Atlantic blocking over the past 5 or so years.

Wow!

You must have gotten trained on by storms? We had a couple of thunderstorms comes through quickly last night, but only 0.53" of liquid gold. At first I thought there was a trace of sleet in one of them, but with the amount of convection going on, and looking at column temps, it had to be hail. That distinct "chink" sound on the windows.