Texas Winter 2013-2014

[ludosc]

Texas Storm Chasers ‏@TxStormChasers 12m
10:00 PM Winter Weather Update - Details at http://www.texasstormchasers.com/?p=26427 #txwx pic.twitter.com/1I4QmA5LSH



@ludosc 6m
@TxStormChasers where are you putting your money? EURO, NAM, or GFS?

Texas Storm Chasers ‏@TxStormChasers 4m
@ludosc I think NAM is the best now that we are within 24 hours of the event. Canadian model was best with temperatures.

fwiw

[orangeblood]

Latest RAP run showing 1-2 inches of sleet/snow accumulating in the DFW metroplex late morning into early afternoon


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[katheria]

got a link lost my bookmarks today...ughhh

edit nevermind remembered the page lol

[TheProfessor]

Latest RAP run showing 1-2 inches of sleet/snow accumulating in the DFW metroplex late morning into early afternoon


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

That would be great, better than freezing rain. I don't want my power to go out!!!

[TheProfessor]

0z Nam seems to be trending wetter for North and Northeast Texas. But it has the precip occurring Tuesday evening and night.

[Ntxw]

Low -EPO > models. I had a friend up in Wisconsin tell me today late last week they were expecting teens to near 20 for highs. Didn't get much above 5!

[Lagreeneyes03]

And to top it all off, the "freezing rain advisory" isn't scheduled to start until midnight tonight. With all of the accidents piling up, what am I missing here ? Who is leading the charge in the Fort Worth office at this time ?

Yeah I totally agree with orangeblood .. They've had 6+ hours of the rap & hrrr showing this scenario, so why is it taking so long to update the warning..

I'm sorry but hearing all of these accidents on the road and now some taking a tragic turn...it's inexcusable for the FW Office to not get the message out sooner re: this dangerous situation. The RAP guidance clearly showed this latest round of moderate freezing drizzle moving through from very early on this morning and for them to not start the advisory until midnight makes ZERO sense. They are the pretty much the end all be all for advising folks in this region and given the guidance at hand, there is no excuse for not getting the message out sooner.

Another problem is the well-followed FB mets pages were also not too long ago saying this would not amount to much but a few slick spots. So, those who listen to them are also in a situation right now. IMBY, still no freezing, and my whole driveway is wet as are the streets. No freezing on anything in my neighborhood but I won't be going any further than across the street tomorrow.

[TheProfessor]

And to top it all off, the "freezing rain advisory" isn't scheduled to start until midnight tonight. With all of the accidents piling up, what am I missing here ? Who is leading the charge in the Fort Worth office at this time ?

Yeah I totally agree with orangeblood .. They've had 6+ hours of the rap & hrrr showing this scenario, so why is it taking so long to update the warning..

Another problem is the well-followed FB mets pages were also not too long ago saying this would not amount to much but a few slick spots. So, those who listen to them are also in a situation right now. IMBY, still no freezing, and my whole driveway is wet as are the
streets. No freezing on anything in my neighborhood but I won't be going any further than across the street tomorrow.

It's the exact opposite at my neighborhood. And I live only 1 mile south of lake Grapevine.

[SouthernMet]

2z rap trends towards a significant icing event for north tx with moderate-heavy sleet developing right on top of dfw : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1


& for porta the qpf .25" right on top of dfw metro creating significant problems :
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1

- also the rap showed 1-3" of snow (which would be sleet & more like an inch or 2)

[TheProfessor]

wait so it showed .25 inches of ice with 1-2320 inches og sleet/snow on top?

[SouthernMet]

:uarrow: wait so it showed .25 inches of ice with 1-2320 inches og sleet/snow on top?

no that was the total qpf output, not necessarily if it's freezing rain or sleet/snow.
remember also, the lower you are below freezing the higher the accumulation ratio. Well just have to wait & see

[SouthernMet]

& here is your 3z hrrr : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

okay folks, this is real. PLEASE stay off the roads, esp tomorrow & tomorrow night

Hrrr almost a spitting image, reinforcing the rap with dfw locked in a large (dendritic growth zone, lift underestimated) moderate-heavy precip shield tomorrow during the day.

[TrekkerCC]

& here is your 3z hrrr : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

okay folks, this is real. PLEASE stay off the roads, esp tomorrow & tomorrow night

Hrrr almost a spitting image, reinforcing the rap with dfw locked in a large (dendritic growth zone, lift underestimated) moderate-heavy precip shield tomorrow during the day.

Thanks for the updates. I have been watching the HRRR/RAP trends with interest over the past several runs. If RAP/HRRR is right, then we might either have a snow storm (if the atmosphere column is colder than predicted which might be the case given how badly the models are handling everything else) or a sleet storm, either way, it might be very rapid upgrade to WSW for the DFW area in the morning. If I recall correctly, half-inch of sleet is considered warning criteria for the FWD office. I will watch with interest as the precipitation develops later this morning and afternoon.

[Tcu101]

2z rap trends towards a significant icing event for north tx with moderate-heavy sleet developing right on top of dfw : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1


& for porta the qpf .25" right on top of dfw metro creating significant problems :
http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1

- also the rap showed 1-3" of snow (which would be sleet & more like an inch or 2)

How do you see the total accumulated precipitation on the RAP?

[SouthernMet]

Latest hrrr accumulated precip .10"-.25" qpf : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014021104&plot_type=totp_sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1

More impressive(but goes out 3hrs longer), the latest RAP accumulated precip widespread .25" right on top of dfw : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=rap_jet:&runtime=2014021104&plot_type=totp_sfc&fcst=18&time_inc=60&num_times=19&model=rr&ptitle=RAP%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=full&adtfn=1

1-2" "snowfall" accumulations(most likely sleet) on top of dfw, see for yourself : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/displa ... ll&adtfn=1

[SouthernMet]

5z rap spitting image.. #icestorm

[ravyrn]

Guys I live 12 miles west of Henderson. I am having major surgery early Wednesday (5am) Morning @ LSU Hospital in Shreveport.That is about 100 minutes away. I am probably going to have to leave around 3am to get there. My question is will the roads be bad Tuesday night making that trip hard to make in 100 minutes or at all? If so I am thinking of going Tuesday afternoon and getting a room near the Hospital. What say Ye?

Hey Doug, I'm not too far from you. I'm on the Henderson Highway just on the east side of Jacksonville. This is a really tough event to forecast conditions as a few degrees in temperature make a huge difference in the outcome of the event. My best advice to you, is to travel to Shreveport this morning and get you a hotel room and stay the night there. It's better to be safe than be sorry. It's hard to say how bad road conditions could get, but the I-20 corridor could certainly see some sleet, snow, and ice within the next 24 hours. I'd make the trip now, this morning, and just pay the extra cash for a hotel room for one night.

Sorry no one responded to you earlier. You definitely want to make the trip this morning or in the early afternoon. You absolutely do not want to try to make the trip early Wednesday morning. I'd leave by noon today if I were you. Watch conditions to our west though, if they begin to deteriorate before then, leave sooner. Be safe traveling and best of luck on your surgery my friend!

[DougNTexas]

Thanks Ravyrn. I am probably going to do just that. I am halfway between Troop and Henderson in Price, Texas (Carlisle High School) a couple blocks off Hwy 42. Thanks so much for the response.

[JDawg512]

Interesting... EWX mentions thunder sleet a possibility this morning.

[ravyrn]

Thanks Ravyrn. I am probably going to do just that. I am halfway between Troop and Henderson in Price, Texas (Carlisle High School) a couple blocks off Hwy 42. Thanks so much for the response.

If you can eat tomorrow evening, I recommend Logan's Roadhouse in Shreveport. Go get you a brewski sirloin or filet brewski style. I used to manage the kitchen at the Logan's in Lake Charles, and that's the best steak I've ever had. The steak is on a bed of brewski onions and topped with garlic butter and some crispy onions (thinly sliced, battered, and fried onions). Absolutely delicious!