Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Golfisnteasy7575]

There's also a decent signal on the NBM for snow in North Texas next week, especially when you consider the range. I see why OUN added a 30% chance of rain/snow to the forecast on Tuesday.

https://i.ibb.co/HfGN2Lwt/snowfall-acc-imp-us-sc-1.png

Hey, do you have a map of the 12z euro with it further east towards the mid south? It's also interesting how it weakens dramatically while heading east.

[txtwister78]

Important to note that the GFS/GEFS isn't as extreme as the Euro/EPS is. Heck even the CMC/GEPS isn't as wild and that's saying something (lol). Plenty of time to watch these trends though but thankfully we're looking at Feb 20th on the calendar and not Jan 20th and so that should help a bit (especially the further south you get into Texas) as I've mentioned in previous post in terms of the departures from normal even if the Euro is right for a change.

The one thing that Porta mentioned earlier definitely merits watching as globals don't and haven't handled these frontal boundaries well at all in terms of location and as a result colder temps verify due to shallow nature of these airmasses. Of course, if you put a 1052 to 1055 arctic high down the plains, you can bank on it getting cold further south with that kind of muscle push behind it although that's definitely the extreme.

[wxman22]

There's also a decent signal on the NBM for snow in North Texas next week, especially when you consider the range. I see why OUN added a 30% chance of rain/snow to the forecast on Tuesday.

https://i.ibb.co/HfGN2Lwt/snowfall-acc-imp-us-sc-1.png

Hey, do you have a map of the 12z euro with it further east towards the mid south? It's also interesting how it weakens dramatically while heading east.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Important to note that the GFS/GEFS isn't as extreme as the Euro/EPS is. Heck even the CMC/GEPS isn't as wild and that's saying something (lol). Plenty of time to watch these trends though but thankfully we're looking at Feb 20th on the calendar and not Jan 20th and so that should help a bit (especially the further south you get into Texas) as I've mentioned in previous post in terms of the departures from normal even if the Euro is right for a change.

The one thing that Porta mentioned earlier definitely merits watching as globals don't and haven't handled these frontal boundaries well at all in terms of location and as a result colder temps verify due to shallow nature of these airmasses. Of course, if you put a 1052 to 1055 arctic high down the plains, you can bank on it getting cold further south with that kind of muscle push behind it although that's definitely the extreme.

Imo, the pattern supports very cold air mainly due to the split, which allowed the ao to tank and mjo progression

[Ntxw]

Imo, the pattern supports very cold air mainly due to the split, which allowed the ao to tank and mjo progression

Golfisnteasy7575 maybe better for postseason analysis but winter 24-25 has not be run by the strat PV much at all. Everything has been tropical forcing driven for the most part. The PV has remained strong and only during minor warmings did it go back to average with little linkage. What we can conclude is that the warmings/stretch/split whatever you want to call it has been AFTER the tropical forcing bottom up. In other words the MJO and TNH/Pacific pattern has been the deciding factor this season. It's been very much like the 2013-2015 period where a shift was occuring from cold ENSO to warmer ENSO/PDO. The near record +PNA we have seen is nothing at all resembling what a -PDO should be, in fact this winter so far resembles more of El Nino that we remember, warm December and colder second 2/3rds season with favorable tropical forcing.

[Ptarmigan]

Imo, the pattern supports very cold air mainly due to the split, which allowed the ao to tank and mjo progression

Golfisnteasy7575 maybe better for postseason analysis but winter 24-25 has not be run by the strat PV much at all. Everything has been tropical forcing driven for the most part. The PV has remained strong and only during minor warmings did it go back to average with little linkage. What we can conclude is that the warmings/stretch/split whatever you want to call it has been AFTER the tropical forcing bottom up. In other words the MJO and TNH/Pacific pattern has been the deciding factor this season. It's been very much like the 2013-2015 period where a shift was occuring from cold ENSO to warmer ENSO/PDO. The near record +PNA we have seen is nothing at all resembling what a -PDO should be, in fact this winter so far resembles more of El Nino that we remember, warm December and colder second 2/3rds season with favorable tropical forcing.

https://i.imgur.com/T7XXQqP.png

Here is the Tropical/Northern Hemisphere (TNH)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh_ts.shtml

[gpsnowman]

Latest from Steve McCauley

20m ·
Showers and thunderstorms from Monday night through today have left many areas soaked with 1 to 5 inches of rain (green to yellow to orange colors), with some of the heaviest totals in Dallas and Tarrant Counties.
But the rains have gone, and cloud cover will be on the decrease tonight, and without our heavy blanket of clouds, the freeze that has long been foretold will materialize as most areas fall into the 20s overnight. But it is only a brief shot at cold air as we will rebound Friday and especially on Saturday as we climb back to the 60s and 70s to start the weekend before the next cold snap on Sunday.
Overall we have been lucky so far with no real Arctic air for the first half of the month, but February is notorious for its severe cold snaps. Indeed today is the anniversay of the coldest temperatures ever recorded in the local area when the thermometer plunged well below zero in 1899. That was the year "icebergs" were observed floating down the Mississippi from New Orleans!
Though we will not get anywhere near that cold, we do see a batch of real Arctic air that will finally be able to make its way deep into Texas by the middle of next week.
So, get ready...February is about to pay us a real visit!

[Ntxw]

0z ICON is gonna be another cold run. 1050s mb high and some intense cold along the US-Canadian border.

Blocking moving into Hudson Bay really displaces the cold air.

[Stratton23]

Lots of teens and 20’s for lows on the ICON, with even some single digits in north texas, wind chills are absolutely brutal

[Sambucol2024]

Lots of teens and 20’s for lows on the ICON, with even some single digits in north texas, wind chills are absolutely brutal

What does it look like for SE Texas on that run?

[wxman22]

The GFS and CMC trended towards the Euro and Icon.

[Stratton23]

GFS colder, sheesh the CMC with a mega 1057 arctic high over wyoming really driving that arctic air all the way to mexico

[wxman22]

The GFS also brought back the light wintry mix into North Texas. It has a on and off wintry mix from next Tuesday night through the day Wednesday. The CMC also shows a similar scenario with a light wintry mix Tuesday-Wednesday.

[Ntxw]

Euro went bonkers. Snow. Ice, frigid cold.

[gpsnowman]

Euro went bonkers. Snow. Ice, frigid cold.

Still a week out but safe to say globals are in similar agreement for next week?

[Stratton23]

not in terms of a winter storm ( yet) but they are coming into agreement on the cold more, models are definitely trending toward the ICON in terms of the magnitude of the cold, that euro run is filthy, wide spread ice storm and absolutely beyond brutal wind chills -10 to -20 below zero in north texas with single digit wind chills in. houston

[Harp.1]

Euro went bonkers. Snow. Ice, frigid cold.

Could you post please?

[Ntxw]

Euro went bonkers. Snow. Ice, frigid cold.

Still a week out but safe to say globals are in similar agreement for next week?

Get to under 120 hours and will feel better about it. I'd like to see more ensemble members join in. At 500 millibar things are looking pretty positive if you're towards cold and wintry weather. By pattern recognition this looks much better than anything at the beginning of the month. At the same time with the big negative AO, can't help but feel like something significant could happen. If you like extremes then you look for something extreme and the AO index is pretty close at the moment.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw so far on the GEPS/ GEFS 00z runs, they definitely have trended noticably colder with the GEPS especially looking like the operational run and the Euro, GEFS definitely colder but not as wacky yet, EPS out soon

[Ntxw]

Ntxw so far on the GEPS/ GEFS 00z runs, they definitely have trended noticably colder with the GEPS especially looking like the operational run and the Euro, GEFS definitely colder but not as wacky yet, EPS out soon

I was hesitant with EPO as it hasnt really delivered this year in terms of direct cold back from late Jan for 7-14 day period, I don't think ultimately it is the right season for that. It's the cold loading patterns but not delivery. A west based negative AO over Hudson Bay with TPV opening up is the way to dislodge it. Hopefully ensembles will continue to lower heights over our region.