Texas Winter 2024-2025

[gpsnowman]

Euro went bonkers. Snow. Ice, frigid cold.

Still a week out but safe to say globals are in similar agreement for next week?

Get to under 120 hours and will feel better about it. I'd like to see more ensemble members join in. At 500 millibar things are looking pretty positive if you're towards cold and wintry weather. By pattern recognition this looks much better than anything at the beginning of the month. At the same time with the big negative AO, can't help but feel like something significant could happen. If you like extremes then you look for something extreme and the AO index is pretty close at the moment.

Things are looking good. Me, I get a bit antsy as winter winds down. I do agree with 120 rule though, things should be somewhat framed by then.

[Stratton23]

EPS is in, and its much colder than its 12z run, looking close to its operational run now

[Ntxw]

EPS is in, and its much colder than its 12z run, looking close to its operational run now

EPS

[Stratton23]

Ntxw its one thing to see a 30-40 degree departure from normal on an operational run, thags wild enough, but to see 35-40 below normal on an ensemble will definitely get youre attention quickly

[txtwister78]

6-7 days out still folks. Things can and will likely change by then. Ensembles trended colder tonight no question, but we've got several days to go to see if this holds. We've seen this movie before with globals and even the ensembles showing insane cold only to back off a few days later (for the CMC/GEPS that's a normal occurrence lol).

0z GFS/GEFS has definitely trended a little colder with each run today but not quite as cold yet as the Euro/EPS and CMC/GEPS.

Need to see a few more runs going into the weekend before this becomes a legit concern headed into next week.

[South Texas Storms]

6-7 days out still folks. Things can and will likely change by then. Ensembles trended colder tonight no question, but we've got several days to go to see if this holds. We've seen this movie before with globals and even the ensembles showing insane cold only to back off a few days later (for the CMC/GEPS that's a normal occurrence lol).

0z GFS/GEFS has definitely trended a little colder with each run today but not quite as cold yet as the Euro/EPS and CMC/GEPS.

Need to see a few more runs going into the weekend before this becomes a legit concern headed into next week.

Yep, well said. And like you mentioned earlier, I'm so glad this is happening February 20 instead of January 20. I would be surprised if Houston dropped below 20 degrees with this upcoming cold blast. I'm not too concerned about frozen precip here in southeast Texas yet either.

[Brent]

TWC already has a potential winter storm Tuesday not sure I've seen one so far out maybe 2021? I don't remember I wasn't here then

[Portastorm]

Frozen precip on the table now for the middle of next week here. Relevant snippet from this morning’s AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio:

“Forecast soundings for the early hours of Wednesday show a potential for a wintry mix with surface
temperatures below freezing and mid level temperatures above freezing. Models are starting to latch onto this trend. Should this trend continue, later forecasts will have to introduce a wintry mix for portions of the Hill Country and our Central Texas counties for Wednesday morning.”

[Wthrfan]

TWC already has a potential winter storm Tuesday not sure I've seen one so far out maybe 2021? I don't remember I wasn't here then

They are always very conservative but already showing 3-6 inches of snow Tuesday here with a high of 20 Wednesday and a low of 2! It can and most likely will change, but seems to bode well for at least some winter weather

[wxman22]

[Cpv17]

https://i.ibb.co/RGNFLBBT/IMG-0243.png

https://i.ibb.co/LXJ73R48/IMG-0244.png

https://i.ibb.co/BkvhHs1/IMG-0245.png

And the GFS has nothing lol

[wxman22]

It’s currently 15 degrees here.

[gpsnowman]

23 degrees currently. Local Mets had the low in the 26-28 range. Might not make it out of the 30s today.

[Ntxw]

Quite chilly this morning! 22F.

6z icon is a little faster with cold out to 120hrs. 6z euro has teens in NW Texas with 0s coming in, 20s in NTX approaching teens. Front a little faster in CTX.

12z runs should keep us buzzing.

[Quixotic]

20 here. Still a bit breezy.

[HockeyTx82]

What happened to Wxman57's wall? Did the DOGE audit pull his funding and now we are going to Make America Cold Again!!!!

MACA

[Portastorm]

What happened to Wxman57's wall? Did the DOGE audit pull his funding and now we are going to Make America Cold Again!!!!

MACA

MACA!!

I really get the sense that the globals are going to be playing catch up with what’s happening with the polar vortex. Next week looks very intriguing to me.

[Ntxw]

You can add the UKMET into the mix. Looks some like the Euro through Thursday quite cold with wintry precip beforehand. GFS is the outlier at the moment.

[wxman22]

6Z Euro

[wxman22]

Chances of at least 1” of snow.