Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Here's jeff's update for you SETX folks.

Freezing rain advisory remains in place for today for the northern 1/3rd of the area.

Strong short wave clearly noted over New Mexico spreading lift toward the region this morning. 700am surface temperatures are above freezing at all locations across SE TX however surface dewpoints have fallen below freezing as far south as northern Harris County under dry air advection overnight as the light rainfall and drizzle ended. While surface temperatures have been unable to fall to below freezing under the influence of cold air advection…the advection of drier low level air southward sets the stage for enough room for some evaporative cooling as precipitation begins to onset again later this morning. With surface temperatures in the 33-35 degree range north of HWY 105 it will not take much cooling to get the advisory area to freezing. While dewpoints further southward are at freezing even into Harris County, do not think evaporative cooling will be enough to reduce the surface temperature to freezing…hence all liquid and no ice.

P-type:
Impressive warm layer remains in the mid levels with 850mb temperatures on the order of the mid and upper 40’s suggesting this is a freezing rain profile. With that said the slightly drier air might result in just enough mid level cooling to produce some sleet mixture as far south as HWY 105 this afternoon. Not confident that is going to happen and this would really not change the impacts in the advisory area any.

Accumulation:
Rainfall amounts look light on the order of .05-.10 of an inch in the advisory area which would equate to about 50% of that of ice accumulation especially since surface temperatures are so marginal. Looks like bridges and overpasses could be the issue, but time od ay with a slightly increased solar angle does support some radiation getting through the clouds and bring absorbed by the bridges…which may just be enough to keep them wet instead of ice covered. Bigger concern is after sun set with light freezing rain still falling and temperatures falling into the 29-31 degree range…which could result in fairly quick icing over of bridges in the advisory area. Still think the best chances for ice accumulation will be east of I-45 and more likely around Lake Livingston.

For Metro Houston: all precipitation will remain liquid and do not expect ice formation in this area. Any wet spots on bridges and overpasses overnight could freeze as temperatures fall below freezing Wednesday morning.

Extended:
The “great” warm up begins in earnest Thursday into the weekend as southerly Gulf flow becomes established and the upper air pattern over the US more zonal keeping any arctic air trapped in Canada or across the eastern US. Will need to keep an eye on dewpoints over the cold nearshore waters which could spread low clouds and fog inland as earlier as Friday and lasting into the weekend making it more cloudy than what model guidance is suggesting.

[Rgv20]

Yesterday's high was 84 now I'm sitting at 40 with a brisk north wind and light drizzle....I'm barely getting over the Cold, I better not get sick again! lol

[Portastorm]

This is an exciting time of the year. I hope that all of you get a foot of snow today/tomorrow, as it appears this will be the last significant winter weather for Texas this season. Long-range models indicate a quite significant warm air anomaly at 850mb over Texas for the next 2 weeks - as much as 12C-16C above normal by this weekend and early next week. With the zonal flow pattern and arm air aloft, the transition to spring begins in a couple of days.

I think it is time to hold you, Heat Miser, a little more accountable. While many of us are ready to hand over the baton to you, it is incumbent on you to bring some rain with your warmth. None of this La Nina junk with drought and dryness and wildfires. We want thunderstorms and showers with our spring warmth! So, you better get to work on that.

And I wouldn't rule out another cold snap or two and maybe a winter weather event for parts of Texas between now and the official start of spring.

[Texas Snowman]

Here's jeff's update

Strong short wave clearly noted over New Mexico spreading lift toward the region this morning.

Extended:
The “great” warm up begins in earnest Thursday into the weekend as southerly Gulf flow becomes established and the upper air pattern over the US more zonal keeping any arctic air trapped in Canada or across the eastern US. Will need to keep an eye on dewpoints over the cold nearshore waters which could spread low clouds and fog inland as earlier as Friday and lasting into the weekend making it more cloudy than what model guidance is suggesting.

[/quote]

Radar is beginning to look a bit more promising out west as the shortwave starts to swing eastward.

Extended idea sounds like there could be a foggy fly in the ointment for late winter bike rides.

[Texas Snowman]

This is an exciting time of the year. I hope that all of you get a foot of snow today/tomorrow, as it appears this will be the last significant winter weather for Texas this season. Long-range models indicate a quite significant warm air anomaly at 850mb over Texas for the next 2 weeks - as much as 12C-16C above normal by this weekend and early next week. With the zonal flow pattern and arm air aloft, the transition to spring begins in a couple of days.

I think it is time to hold you, Heat Miser, a little more accountable. While many of us are ready to hand over the baton to you, it is incumbent on you to bring some rain with your warmth. None of this La Nina junk with drought and dryness and wildfires. We want thunderstorms and showers with our spring warmth! So, you better get to work on that.

And I wouldn't rule out another cold snap or two and maybe a winter weather event for parts of Texas between now and the official start of spring.

Here, here!! Portastorm for president!!!! No warmth without moisture. Time for hot and dry years to go on an extended vacation!!!

[hriverajr]

What has really hurt Portastorm's and my chances for winter weather has been a lack of Pacific Moisture. For all the talk of a "noisy" subtropical jet, it has been rather limited. Those of you to our east have gotten more precip because of moisture being picked up from the gulf.

Since December I don't think we have even gotten close to a .25 inch of rain here in Del Rio. That bodes ill for the spring and summer, unless Pacific moisture flow increases dramatically. Even you in East Texas better hope for that as well, as relatively cold waters will limit your instability and moisture return for a while as well.

[ndale]

I am not sure what other members temps in our area are but mine is 32. I expect it will go above freezing at any time, so should not have any ice problems here.

[opticsguy]

The RAP model has DFW warming up into the 40's this afternoon with a north wind at the surface? Where is this warm air coming from? The soundings have a dry adiabatic laps rate in the lower 2000 feet, as if the sun would be out, but the sun isn't going to be out today.

Downslope compressional heating coming off the Ouchitas?

[SouthernMet]

ft worth alliance down to 26
ft worth meacham 27
dfw 28

[TexasStorm]

At this point we can start paying attention to radar returns and forget about the models. However it is interesting to see what models are showing what.

GFS - Not much for DFW. Keeps the precip to the south/southeast of us
RAP - .1 amount of precip for DFW
NAM - .1 amount of precip for DFW
HRRR - shows precip developing over DFW around 10am - 2pm

Those are the only ones I looked at. GFS seems to be the outlier. But for the last couple of weeks the GFS has not performed that well in my opinion.

If we do get sleet/freezing rain then I am not sure we make it to 36 degrees today.

[Ralph's Weather]

It has stayed around 34 in the Tyler area overnight, but the dew point is in the mid 20s so if we get precip started I expect to fall below freezing fairly quickly.

[Ntxw]

This is an exciting time of the year. I hope that all of you get a foot of snow today/tomorrow, as it appears this will be the last significant winter weather for Texas this season. Long-range models indicate a quite significant warm air anomaly at 850mb over Texas for the next 2 weeks - as much as 12C-16C above normal by this weekend and early next week. With the zonal flow pattern and arm air aloft, the transition to spring begins in a couple of days.

I think it is time to hold you, Heat Miser, a little more accountable. While many of us are ready to hand over the baton to you, it is incumbent on you to bring some rain with your warmth. None of this La Nina junk with drought and dryness and wildfires. We want thunderstorms and showers with our spring warmth! So, you better get to work on that.

And I wouldn't rule out another cold snap or two and maybe a winter weather event for parts of Texas between now and the official start of spring.

Neutral years as we are in now often have late cold snaps, like last year. They typically do not favor mild March-May as in a previous post I made.

I am confident enough to say there will be no La Nina (reference to my posts in EnSo thread) and 2014 will be a battle between Neutral and El Nino. I would slightly lean on nino 60/40 due to historical statistics.

[wxman57]

This is an exciting time of the year. I hope that all of you get a foot of snow today/tomorrow, as it appears this will be the last significant winter weather for Texas this season. Long-range models indicate a quite significant warm air anomaly at 850mb over Texas for the next 2 weeks - as much as 12C-16C above normal by this weekend and early next week. With the zonal flow pattern and arm air aloft, the transition to spring begins in a couple of days.

I think it is time to hold you, Heat Miser, a little more accountable. While many of us are ready to hand over the baton to you, it is incumbent on you to bring some rain with your warmth. None of this La Nina junk with drought and dryness and wildfires. We want thunderstorms and showers with our spring warmth! So, you better get to work on that.

And I wouldn't rule out another cold snap or two and maybe a winter weather event for parts of Texas between now and the official start of spring.

Just saw the February Euro forecast for this summer's Tropical Pacific SSTs. Euro has shifted to rather strong El Nino conditions by peak season. Definitely not a 2011-type summer.

I'm sure we'll have another "cold snap" or two through April, but everything I'm seeing indicates a significantly diminished winter weather threat (chance) across Texas after this week.

[Tireman4]

[

And I wouldn't rule out another cold snap or two and maybe a winter weather event for parts of Texas between now and the official start of spring.[/quote]

Neutral years as we are in now often have late cold snaps, like last year. They typically do not favor mild March-May as in a previous post I made.

I am confident enough to say there will be no La Nina (reference to my posts in EnSo thread) and 2014 will be a battle between Neutral and El Nino. I would slightly lean on nino 60/40 due to historical statistics.[/quote]

See, in my humble, amateur opinion, that this is amazing. Why? In August, we are ranging from 95-100 throughout the state. We will be so exhausted from the furnace that is the sun, we are just holding out hope for the first front to semi cool us off. I get that Wxman57 loves the furnace. We do not normally get a very cold winter. Heck, one winter lasted all of three weeks. I am just saying ( for me), I love this weather. I do not want to have to live through the season that is Summer. I know many of you disagree, but I am just putting my three cents. Now, back to your regularly scheduled program on the PWC Network. On at 9 am, Snow, French Toast and Snowboarding: Our Tribute to the Olympics. Good stuff.

[JGrin87]

Question for ProMet/Another Qualified Respondent:

What properties are/were unique to this winter that promoted very cold air at the surface, with warm air aloft (warm nose); in other words, a very shallow cold column? In contrast, what properties were unique to the 2010-2011 winter that allowed so much snow, i.e. cold air throughout the column? Also, if i recall correctly, the temperatures at the surface in 2010-2011 were probably, on average, not as cold as this winter. Also, if i recall correctly, the 2011 snowmageddon commenced even as temps were still above freezing at the surface. This year, surface temps have not been a problem for most of Texas, including even Houston.

Logically, one would expect that the "sources" of the cold are from two different places. But, I don't know.

[Ralph's Weather]

The RAP model has DFW warming up into the 40's this afternoon with a north wind at the surface? Where is this warm air coming from? The soundings have a dry adiabatic laps rate in the lower 2000 feet, as if the sun would be out, but the sun isn't going to be out today.

Downslope compressional heating coming off the Ouchitas?

It does same here warming surface temps into the 40s this afternoon. Below is an image of the 12Z RAP for Lindale. If we discount the warm surface the profile is a good one for snow this afternoon with deep saturated air that stays below freezing though it does have a warm nose that approaches freezing.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Here is the 12Z NAM, it looks more reasonable to me with surface temps near freezing and above aloft.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

The 06Z GFS is similar to the NAM.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Ntxw]

Question for ProMet/Another Qualified Respondent:

What properties are/were unique to this winter that promoted very cold air at the surface, with warm air aloft (warm nose); in other words, a very shallow cold column? In contrast, what properties were unique to the 2010-2011 winter that allowed so much snow, i.e. cold air throughout the column? Also, if i recall correctly, the temperatures at the surface in 2010-2011 were probably, on average, not as cold as this winter. Also, if i recall correctly, the 2011 snowmageddon commenced even as temps were still above freezing at the surface. This year, surface temps have not been a problem for most of Texas, including even Houston.

Logically, one would expect that the "sources" of the cold are from two different places. But, I don't know.

You probably meant 09/10. El Nino's are cold and snowy because heights are lower in the southern US due to stronger storms thus it is often colder above our heads, thanks to a real STJ and higher heights overall in Canada. This year the cold was forced by the EPO, lower heights remained in Canada thus our heights (above our heads) remained normal to higher but was so cold it was allowed to bleed.

Many storms we had this winter was weak, small, and often not as robust compared to that year. This is mostly related to the tropical Pacific with SOI remaining mostly positive through the winter with no El Nino.

[natlib]

Its really REALLY bad in the San Angelo area this morning. Nothing pretty to luck at, just lots of ice. Probably some of the worst driving conditions we've ever had in our area. If this is all we get and no snow....then I'm ready to join the heat miser's team. Come on spring!!!

[Tejas89]

Euro has shifted to rather strong El Nino conditions by peak season. Definitely not a 2011-type summer.

Would love to see a 2007-like summer. One can only dream..

[CaptinCrunch]

Radar is starting to light up across D/FW area, however it looks like most of the precip is evaporating before it reaches the ground. Either way the Texas radar shows the short wave pretty well out west.