Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

Longer term MJO 1-2-3 is cold in March.

[Lagreeneyes03]

So what's a weeks difference to mother nature from our coldest ever temp recorded at DFW.

I'm not saying next week the hammer will drop, but does 1 week later really matter for a potential historic cold snap?

How likely is an ERCOT emergency is my question...may start getting my hotel reservations at my secret forever powered location in order.

[txtwister78]

So what's a weeks difference to mother nature from our coldest ever temp recorded at DFW.

I'm not saying next week the hammer will drop, but does 1 week later really matter for a potential historic cold snap?

How likely is an ERCOT emergency is my question...may start getting my hotel reservations at my secret forever powered location in order.

Plenty of time to watch. We still don't know how cold this airmass will be yet. GFS/GEFS solution would be ideal in that it is the warmest of the models and would bring just a glancing shot of cold (similar to the pattern we've been in but perhaps a little colder for a day) but by in large keeps the coldest air further NE and east of Texas next week. In other words, nothing is set in stone yet but I'm hoping and continue to believe the positive PNA signal will spare us from severe cold and direct more of it east rather than keeping it locked in over Texas.

[Ntxw]

Fun little activity for immediate term. Below is a set of map points for 18z today, it's a few degrees warmer now but for simplicity purposes since hourly global model data is finicky, we can see how they have performed within short range period. The global runs are from 12z yesterday for today.

RTMA results.



ICON


GFS


Euro


Canadian

[HockeyTx82]

Fun little activity for immediate term. Below is a set of map points for 18z today, it's a few degrees warmer now but for simplicity purposes since hourly global model data is finicky, we can see how they have performed within short range period. The global runs are from 12z yesterday for today.

RTMA results.

https://i.imgur.com/2BWJwQs.png

ICON
https://i.imgur.com/JBSac1A.png

GFS
https://i.imgur.com/8ymFSWl.png

Euro
https://i.imgur.com/V3YRmxR.png

Canadian
https://i.imgur.com/GtWOMkC.png

So are you saying it did not handle the cold very well, because I got down the 19° this morning at my house.

[Stratton23]

no surprise the ICON/ CMC were close to reality on that map you posted compared to real time temperatures , another bust from the euro/ gfs with surface cold, next week is going to be interesting

[txtwister78]

Afternoon discussion from Austin/San Antonio NWS. Low confidence forecast obviously at this range remains.

As southerly flow resumes on Monday, temperatures go right back up
into the 60s followed by 70s on Tuesday. Then, the bottom drops out
Wednesday and Thursday as a powerful cold front plows through South
Central Texas Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This is where
model guidance starts to differ. The GFS and its ensembles are
trending fairly dry with this frontal passage, while the ECMWF and
Canadian and their ensembles have more moisture to work with ahead of
the front. At this time, will stick with NBM guidance on PoPs,
especially given decent southerly return flow for 2 days ahead of
this front. Wintry precip will be possible with this frontal passage,
however, differences in timing and precip amount give us low
confidence in impacts, if any at this distance.

[orangeblood]

Conclusion - THE GFS IS GARBAGE when it comes to temperature forecasts! I'll never understand why some of these weather forecast apps are tied directly to that model.

And yes, the ICON/CMC handle certain low level cold setups very well! Not wise to discount those models entirely, the key is pattern recognition for when it thrives.

12Z GFS has a high of 50F at DFW next Thursday, over/under anyone ?

[HockeyTx82]

:uarrow:

Conclusion - THE GFS IS GARBAGE when it comes to temperature forecasts! I'll never understand why some of these weather forecast apps are tied directly to that model.

And yes, the ICON/CMC handle certain low level cold setups very well! Not wise to discount those models entirely, the key is pattern recognition for when it thrives.

12Z GFS has a high of 50F at DFW next Thursday, over/under anyone ?

GFS is just making the sure bet. That's about average for this time a year.

[Ntxw]

no surprise the ICON/ CMC were close to reality on that map you posted compared to real time temperatures , another bust from the euro/ gfs with surface cold, next week is going to be interesting

The reason (I think) the GFS consistently struggles at these points is because its resolution is still among the lowest of the globals. This is a big factor and is an inherent problem. Over the years the others have gradually increased in resolution and improved their forecast where the GFS now often scores the lowest. Until that problem is fixed, you won't see much improvement looking at details of temperature. Euro used to be the same but has improved its resolution across the board.

Analogy, looking at 4k is a way clearer picture than 480P, you won't see the details.

Specifications
The model is constantly evolving, and regularly adjusted to improve performance and forecast accuracy. GFS is a global model with a base horizontal resolution of 18 miles (28 kilometers) between grid points. Temporal resolution covers analysis and forecasts out to 16 days. Horizontal resolution drops to 44 miles (70 kilometers) between grid points for forecasts between one week and two weeks.

ECMWF

HRES
HRES is a single forecast (horizontal resolution around 9 km) which provides a description of one possible evolution of the weather out to 10 days ahead.

CMC

The Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS) is a coupled atmosphere (GEM), ocean and sea ice (NEMO-CICE) deterministic numerical weather prediction model. Forecasts are carried out twice a day for 10 days lead time. The geographical coverage is global on a native Yin-Yang grid at 15 km horizontal resolution.

[orangeblood]

Latest Euro AI now seeing the extreme cold, GFS and it's Ensembles obvious outliers!



Euro Op now showing the coldest 5 day stretch of the winter season for Texas next week!

[wxman57]

I'd be careful believing the ICON or CMC at this point. They did poorly across Texas for the January 21 event. Way too cold for Houston. Euro may have a good handle on it. Will have to see what kind of airmass comes down.

[Iceresistance]

I got down to 11 this morning, NASTY COLD

[txtwister78]

Lol. The CMC is typically about 7-10 degrees too cold on average several days out in terms of its handling of temps during these arctic setups. Yes, it may "catch up" the closer you get in range, but it's typically always overdone several days out so if the GFS is "garbage" (it isn't btw in my opinion) then it has company in the form of that model and others btw.

As it relates to the ICON (which has had its moments of glory..2021 it was one of the first to "see" the frigid cold deep into Texas), I guess I'm a little surprised to see it being talked about in a good light because back in Jan I could've swore I read post about it being a trash model and how it shouldn't be taken seriously because it wasn't putting down a foot of snow in certain regions like the Euro was and yet how did that one end up verifying? Euro was the one that busted bad on accumulations.

The Euro long range has routinely missed these cold snaps. The weeklies and even the ensemble have routinely blowtorched the southern plains in Feb (it was like that in Dec for January even) only to reverse course a week out.

So, in other words, all of these models (GFS included) can be hit or miss now and then because guess what, not every pattern is similar all the time. The Euro Feb 2021 bust continues to be the most embarrassing example I've ever seen and so yeah lots of "garbage" examples to cite and throw-out from each model group in my opinion.

Key is pattern recognition/climatology factors and other players like teleconnections/MJO etc. Models are just tools but they're not the end all be all as we've all seen. Mother nature loves to surprise.

[Brent]

An NWS met(!) in Dodge City mentioned 2021

[txtwister78]

Latest Euro AI now seeing the extreme cold, GFS and it's Ensembles obvious outliers!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/scentus/t2m_f/1739448000/1739966400-OPVxdukSIHQ.png

Euro Op now showing the coldest 5 day stretch of the winter season for Texas next week!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/t2m_f_anom_5day/1739448000/1740355200-17tR1aPPYZY.png

Just yesterday it was blowtorching Texas or offering very little in the way of cold. Not sure that would be the one I would hang my hat on. Just saying.

[gpsnowman]

An NWS met(!) in Dodge City mentioned 2021

Is his name Wyatt Earp? Sorry, I had to.

[Ntxw]

Areas further north for our Oklahoma folks this coming event starts Monday evening-Tuesday with potentially snow and low visibility at times with a steep temperature drop. Not that long a range for you all up there. Wouldn't be surprised to see temperature drops of ~20F in the span of ~6 hours.

[rwfromkansas]

An NWS met(!) in Dodge City mentioned 2021

Is his name Wyatt Earp? Sorry, I had to.

The Dodge City office used to have amazing forecast discussions when I was younger. Think a legend retired from there, but don't recall the name.

[South Texas Storms]

Winters last hurrah definitely looks to arrive next week. I'm still not too concerned about extreme cold or frozen precip here in southeast TX. The 12z Euro solution looks reasonable to me...maybe some light ice as far south as central TX with temps in the upper 20s in Houston.