Texas Winter 2017-2018

[JayDT]

So we’re seeing some better trends for us here in DFW for Saturday night/Sunday?

[bubba hotep]

So we’re seeing some better trends for us here in DFW for Saturday night/Sunday?

I'm not sure "better" since this looks like freezing rain but it could possibly be sleet.

[Brent]

GFS much warmer next weekend but the storm still exists, the arctic high is gone

[JayDT]

So we’re seeing some better trends for us here in DFW for Saturday night/Sunday?

I'm not sure "better" since this looks like freezing rain but it could possibly be sleet.

At this point I wouldn’t even mind freezing rain honestly lol.. So that’s why i said “better”.. Im sure a lot of people wouldn’t agree with me though.

[downsouthman1]

There's some really persistent energy coming out of Mexico right now, per radar.

[Brent]

0z Euro DFW gets a few hundredths at 33-35 degrees Sunday morning

Above freezing albeit barely til well after the precip ends

80s Thursday again(GFS almost hits 80 too at DFW) but cooler and rainy next weekend(40s and 50s)

and the Euro keeps raining til the end of the run and is well into the 70s by then

[EnnisTx]

Winter Weather Advisory just to the Southwest of DFW


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
402 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

TXZ129>133-141>145-101800-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0005.180211T0600Z-180211T1800Z/
Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-
Bosque-Hill-
Including the cities of Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman,
Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose,
Cleburne, Burleson, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton,
Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, and Hillsboro
402 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Sleet and some freezing rain expected late tonight into
early Sunday morning. A light glaze of ice may occur on bridges
and occasional sleet showers may occur through Sunday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of north central Texas.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Any light ice accumulation will result in
very slippery conditions on sidewalks, roads and bridges.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of winter
precipitation may cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for
slippery roads and plan on some travel delays.

[EnnisTx]

My thoughts are that this expands into the DFW Metro area and merges with the advisories posted in Oklahoma. I think we will be colder than advertised and with a bit more moisture than anticipated.

[EnnisTx]

From NWS FW Discussion;

Our initial concern was for areas of freezing drizzle to develop
behind the cold front later today and especially tonight as strong
low level isentropic ascent persists atop the colder air. There
may indeed be some light freezing drizzle, but latest guidance
suggests that despite the strong ascent, the lowest part of the
atmosphere will be a little drier than previously thought.
Temperature/dewpoint depressions later this evening and tonight
run 10 to 15 degrees and there is a pronounced drying below 900mb.
This may be a little too dry to support areas of freezing drizzle
although we will continue to monitor this. Temperatures are
expected to fall into the mid/upper 20s across parts of the region
tonight so even if there were some light precipitation, it could
cause problems on area bridges.

The bigger concern now shifts to late tonight and into Sunday
morning as it appears that a fast moving impulse in the southwest
flow aloft will spread ample mid-level moisture into Central and
North Texas. This occurs within an area of relatively strong
forcing for ascent above 800 mb and within an area of steep lapse
rates. Forecast soundings from several models show a near
saturated layer between 800-600mb which would allow parcels to
freely ascend. This area of forcing overspreads North Texas from
about 3 am into the mid morning hours on Sunday. With the forcing
coming from higher up, and a persistent warm nose below, the main
precipitation type should be sleet, although some freezing rain
would still be possible. With the steep lapse rates in place,
there will also be 200-300 j/kg of elevated instability available.
The latest 3km NAM and TTU WRF both show convective elements to
the precipitation during this time. Given the potential for
convective sleet showers, we`ll go ahead and issue a Winter
Weather Advisory for parts of North and Central Texas for
overnight tonight into Sunday. The main area of concern at this
time is from just southwest of the Metroplex to around
Comanche/Goldthwaite. This area can be expanded or trimmed later
today when the latest data comes available. Precipitation chances
will diminish late in the day Sunday with another cold day on tap.
Highs should top out in the 30s and lower 40s.

[Ntxw]

Currently 23F in Wichita Falls where the GFS thinks it is 30F.

Let us not forget Euro and GFS had no freeze for DFW this weekend earlier in the week. Verification time.

[wxman57]

Looks like I measured over 3 inches of rain overnight. Street is flooded. 68 degrees. A little too warm for snow...

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Currently 37 with drizzle, dewpoint 35. 3 degree drop over the past hour.

[Ntxw]

Currently 37 with drizzle, dewpoint 35. 3 degree drop over the past hour.

GFS said you should not have dropped below 40 until 9pm

[Tammie]

I'm sitting at 34 degrees and drizzle in Denton. When I woke up at 3:00 this morning, it was 57. Totally unexpected!

[EnnisTx]

It's showing 32* at Denton/ 28* at Decatur and 28* at Mineral Wells. These are all air port readings.

[TeamLemke]

You know, even though I've spent weeks this winter in both Nebraska and Colorado, I still hope we get some measure of frozen precip here in DFW. I guess it's just more specialer when it happens here.

Historically, how often have the forecasters been very wrong this close to an event like this one?

Fingers crossed everyone.

[South Texas Storms]

Currently 37 with drizzle, dewpoint 35. 3 degree drop over the past hour.

GFS said you should not have dropped below 40 until 9pm

The GFS has been too warm and slow with frontal passages for quite a while now. I think most of us know the high-res models (NAM, HRRR, ARW) handle temperatures with cold fronts much better.

[Ntxw]

The GFS has been too warm and slow with frontal passages for quite a while now. I think most of us know the high-res models (NAM, HRRR, ARW) handle temperatures with cold fronts much better.

There is an inherit problem even beyond this. It's not even initializing properly when the cold is here. Every single cold snap. Good lord Jesus sure if it's missing 7 days out I can give it some slack but when you're inside 3 days and you're off consistently nearly 10F degrees and folks touting no freezes for the next 16 days from its run is just...I have no words for it.

Am I blowing it up more than it is? Maybe, sure but it's caused who knows how many frustrating thread canceling posts.

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS has been too warm and slow with frontal passages for quite a while now. I think most of us know the high-res models (NAM, HRRR, ARW) handle temperatures with cold fronts much better.

There is an inherit problem even beyond this. It's not even initializing properly when the cold is here. Every single cold snap. Good lord Jesus sure if it's missing 7 days out I can give it some slack but when you're inside 3 days and you're off consistently nearly 10F degrees and folks touting no freezes for the next 16 days from it's run is just...I have no words for it.

Oh believe me, I know. The "upgrade" last year didn't help at all, and in fact, it might be even worse now. I wish something could be done to fix this issue, but not many people seem to care...

[downsouthman1]

The GFS has been too warm and slow with frontal passages for quite a while now. I think most of us know the high-res models (NAM, HRRR, ARW) handle temperatures with cold fronts much better.

There is an inherit problem even beyond this. It's not even initializing properly when the cold is here. Every single cold snap. Good lord Jesus sure if it's missing 7 days out I can give it some slack but when you're inside 3 days and you're off consistently nearly 10F degrees and folks touting no freezes for the next 16 days from it's run is just...I have no words for it.

Oh believe me, I know. The "upgrade" last year didn't help at all, and in fact, it might be even worse now. I wish something could be done to fix this issue, but not many people seem to care...

I'm guessing the new coding eliminated all of the previous learning that was based off the old coding. Now it's learning again but with new coding and essentially having to start over. Big mistake. They should have left previous experience untouched. The problem with AI in a nutshell. Makes movies like ex machinima much more real.