Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Wthrfan]

I'd be careful believing the ICON or CMC at this point. They did poorly across Texas for the January 21 event. Way too cold for Houston. Euro may have a good handle on it. Will have to see what kind of airmass comes down.

I'm sensing a disturbance in the force!

[wxman22]

The 18Z GFS trended towards the other globals in regards to a winterstorm.

[HockeyTx82]

Man the incoming meltdowns when these things start to push all the cold East.......

[Ntxw]

I'd be careful believing the ICON or CMC at this point. They did poorly across Texas for the January 21 event. Way too cold for Houston. Euro may have a good handle on it. Will have to see what kind of airmass comes down.

I'm sensing a disturbance in the force!

Will we see a -5 AO? -3.7 today with a few more days to go. 2021, 2010, 2009, 1985, 1978, 1977 are the other -5s. I think 60s had a couple.

[TropicalTundra]

Virga/extremely weak precip trailing out in West Texas.

[gpsnowman]

Man the incoming meltdowns when these things start to push all the cold East.......

Them's fightin' words.

[Stratton23]

HockeyTx82 its not going to , the dam is going to burst, just wait, you can take that to the bank

[GeauxTigers]

The 18Z GFS trended towards the other globals in regards to a winterstorm.

https://i.ibb.co/Hf1t1F25/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21-2.png

https://i.ibb.co/CptBVGmr/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-22-1.png

https://i.ibb.co/tw13401p/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-24.png

Looks like most of NTX is rain and OK gets bulk of winter stuff. Am i reading this correctly?

[wxman22]

The 18Z GFS trended towards the other globals in regards to a winterstorm.

https://i.ibb.co/Hf1t1F25/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-21-2.png

https://i.ibb.co/CptBVGmr/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-22-1.png

https://i.ibb.co/tw13401p/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-24.png

Looks like most of NTX is rain and OK gets bulk of winter stuff. Am i reading this correctly?

The last frame shows heavy snow in DFW. (FWIW) Previous runs of the GFS today have been mostly dry, so this is a big change towards the wetter models.

[Tammie]

HockeyTx82 its not going to , the dam is going to burst, just wait, you can take that to the bank

And you just jinxed us

[Stratton23]

I probably did lol, but in seriousness though, that much cold air and a 1055+ arctic high sitting over wyoming, its coming due south no matter what, eventually it will shift off to the east, but not before reaching mexico

[Portastorm]

:(

HockeyTx82 its not going to , the dam is going to burst, just wait, you can take that to the bank

And you just jinxed us

Tammie is right! Thanks a lot Strat … now I’m expecting sunny and 75° next Wednesday here in Austin.

[wxman22]

The first round of wintry precip the models are showing on Tuesday is from an Ana Front/Overrunning. While the 2nd round on Wednesday comes from a shortwave moving out of the 4 corners region. The first wave of precip with the front may be a wintry mix for North Texas. While the shortwave on Wednesday may end up being a snow event as there will be colder and deeper air in place by then. Still too far out to get into the details though, but a signal for a wintertsorm seems to be growing. How much frozen precip accumulates will also play a big part in how low temps get.

OUN has already placed a 50% chance of rain/snow for Tuesday over here btw.

[txtwister78]

I probably did lol, but in seriousness though, that much cold air and a 1055+ arctic high sitting over wyoming, its coming due south no matter what, eventually it will shift off to the east, but not before reaching mexico

We've got to get that to verify first. Patience my friend.

[Ntxw]

FW AFD this afternoon.

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Saturday through Wednesday/

Saturday looks to be the warmest day for a while as continued WAA
boosts highs into the mid 60s near the Red River to the mid 70s in
Central Texas. Low level moisture will also continue to increase
across East Texas during the day prior to a strong fropa arriving
in the afternoon. Forecast soundings indicate MUCAPE up to 1000
J/Kg in our southeast counties above the stable surface layer
prior to fropa, with the main warm sector and surface
destabilization staying off to our east. This may be enough for a
strong to marginally severe storm or two with hail or wind
threats, and SPC has our southeast counties in a slight risk for
a few possible strong to severe storms. Again, however, the main
severe threat will be off to our east in the SHV cwa. Across our
western counties, RH will drop down towards 30 percent during the
day with the gusty winds expected both ahead of and behind the
front, and this combo could increase the fire danger somewhat in
our Big Country counties.

Much colder temperatures will arrive post-fropa for early next
week with lows in the 20s to low 30s on Sunday and Monday and
highs in the 40s/50s. Tuesday looks a bit warmer with highs
reaching the 50s/60s, but this warmth will be short-lived as a
powerful Arctic cold front arrives during the day. This front will
be driven by a large southward moving upper trough swinging down
out of a Canada, and an associated massive 1050+ mb surface high
pressure area over the Northern Plains. Thus some of the coldest
air we have seen all winter appears increasingly likely for mid
to late next week, with latest NBM guidance much colder than
previous runs with lows in the 10s/20s and highs only in the
20s/30s for Wednesday onward. Would not be surprised to see the
NBM trend even colder given the strength of the surface high to
our north.

In addition to the cold, 12Z models continue to indicate a
significant 70kt H5 jet streak moving across Texas could provide
enough lift for some rain on Tuesday, with the rain potentially
changing to freezing rain and/or snow Tuesday night into
Wednesday as the shallow Arctic airmass arrives then deepens with
time. Main forecast question at this extended range is how much
lift/moisture and thus QPF will occur as global models differ
significantly, with the GFS much drier than the ECMWF. These
differences continue to keep the forecast confidence low for the
end of the forecast period. However, potential for some winter
weather impacts across North and Central Texas appears to be
increasing for the middle of next week.


Shamburger

[Stratton23]

Portastorm ah shucks! Dont worry, ill bet it will be 90 degrees next wednesday under sunny skies

[wxman22]

Big increase in the 18Z GEFS ensemble members showing a winterstorm for the state.

[Ntxw]

GOES east view you can see the snow cover we have currently in the north. A little bare spot in South Dakota.

.

DFW did not break 40 today. -19F departure from normal, 37/22 is pretty darn close to the coldest day we've had this winter 34/20 back on Jan 20th.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

GOES east view you can see the snow cover we have currently in the north. A little bare spot in South Dakota.

https://i.imgur.com/M29is6y.gif .

DFW did not break 40 today. -19F departure from normal, 37/22 is pretty darn close to the coldest day we've had this winter 34/20 back on Jan 20th.

I have a question. Why does the system next week weaken as it heads east and what needs to happen for it not to weaken? Hopefully that makes sense lol

[Stratton23]

18z Euro is in, 1049 arctic high in the texas panhandle , thats definitely serious cold getting pushed into the state, drier run though