Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

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Extremeweatherguy
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#821 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:31 am

The axis of heaviest snow on the NAM doesn't look too bad to me (though it certainly is not set in stone). I do disagree with its extremely sharp accumulation gradient right along I-44 though. In just 10 miles you go from 12+ inch totals to 1-3 inch totals. Not very likely, IMO. It is possible of course, but unless the bands set up with incredibly sharp and distinct edges, then I doubt it will happen. Right now I am favoring the GFS and the other models in terms of accumulation gradient until I see a realtime (radar, obs, etc) reason to believe otherwise later today and tonight.

6z GFS snow map:
http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ ... URFACE.png
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#822 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:23 am

Well the 12z NAM is officially insane. It is easily the most extreme run yet in terms of total snow coverage!


Image
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Re:

#823 Postby BlueIce » Mon Jan 31, 2011 11:25 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Well the 12z NAM is officially insane. It is easily the most extreme run yet in terms of total snow coverage!


Image


I think I might need to invest in a sled dog if this verifies.
:eek:
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#824 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:25 pm

This front definately means business. I went to bed to 30s, woke up to mid twenties and a little freezing drizzle. Then it was like snowing powder and got windy. Went from about 25 to 15 in about an 1-2 hours this morning, and now its 9. If you are outside when this hits, you will feel it it dropping.
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#825 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:27 pm

The latest run of the HRRR has precipitation breaking out across the region before midnight. By 8-9pm and beyond, it looks like an icy mess might develop around the I-44 corridor, with a transition to a wintry mix of ice/sleet/snow by midnight. If this scenario verifies, then the event will certainly be getting underway sooner than I had anticipated, and it also looks like it could get very ugly, very fast. By hour 15 (12am), the HRRR depicts several heavy precipitation bands moving into the area, likely setting the stage for a NAM-like scenario of heavy snow during the overnight period. Crazy!

HRRR at 12am: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ ... n=1&wjet=1

Update: the even newer run of the HRRR, (it runs each hour), has backed off a little bit. It now shows the precip. breaking out closer to 10pm-12am, instead of 8-9pm. It still develops some pretty potent bands by around and just after midnight though, set to move in during the following hours.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#826 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:30 pm

I would agree Extremeweatherguy...it hit Denver early. We were not supposed to see snow til after lunch today and we essentially woke up to it. And it was only supposed to drop to 15 degrees by 5:00 and its already 9 and dropping. I think she's ahead of schedule :)
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#827 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 12:39 pm

That's definitely interesting to hear PTPatrick. Looks like we could easily be in store for something similar in the southern plains later on.
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#828 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:09 pm

Another impressive ECMWF run. Total storm QPF of 1.22" at OKC and 1.27" at OUN.
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#829 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Jan 31, 2011 1:44 pm

Image

:thermo: :froze:
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Re:

#830 Postby BlueIce » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:09 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Another impressive ECMWF run. Total storm QPF of 1.22" at OKC and 1.27" at OUN.


It will be nice to see some RUC data soon. I really think this storm is going to smash the Blizzard 2009. If I recall weren't you out of town EWG?
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#831 Postby baitism » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:24 pm

This storm needs to shift 50 miles west so KC can get clobbered. :P
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Re: Re:

#832 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:32 pm

BlueIce wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Another impressive ECMWF run. Total storm QPF of 1.22" at OKC and 1.27" at OUN.


It will be nice to see some RUC data soon. I really think this storm is going to smash the Blizzard 2009. If I recall weren't you out of town EWG?
Yes, I missed the '09 blizzard. I was in Florida.

I'm here this time around though. So it looks like I will be making up for that miss in a big way tonight.
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#833 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:47 pm

Check out the Rapid Refresh model reflectivity output valid 6am tomorrow...

Image

If this is right, then there will be a huge band of extremely heavy 35-45 dbz snow pushing into the metro areas along the I-44 corridor around sunrise.

At the same time, the model is also showing a large area of 35-50mph wind gusts...

Image

Whiteout blizzard conditions would be very likely if this scenario plays out, with snowfall rates of several inches per hour.

RR page: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/

This model does seem slightly more west with the precipitation than most others though, so who knows what will happen (update..the latest RUC simulated composite reflectivity actually looks to have the overnight bands centered more west too: http://www.twisterdata.com/data/models/ruc/255/maps/2011/01/31/19/RUC_255_2011013119_F12_CREF_SURFACE.png). Based on the spread that I am seeing right now, I am thinking that the heaviest band of precipitation will set up somewhere in the vicinity of the I-44 corridor, +/- 50 miles east or west. Areas along and near this "main", heaviest band are the ones most likely to see 12+ inch totals from this event.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:42 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#834 Postby miller90 » Mon Jan 31, 2011 2:52 pm

I am in west central mo and we are forecasted to get 12-18 inches of snow. the words epic and historic are being used by NWS and other forecasters.
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Re:

#835 Postby BlueIce » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:17 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Check out the Rapid Refresh model reflectivity output valid 6am tomorrow...


If this is right, then there will be a huge band of extremely heavy 35-45 dbz snow pushing into the metro areas along the I-44 corridor around sunrise.

At the same time, the model is also showing a large area of 35-50mph wind gusts...


Whiteout blizzard conditions would be very likely if this scenario plays out, with snowfall rates of several inches per hour.


RR page: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/


That looks absolutely insane. I think we are looking at thunder snow here.
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#836 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:20 pm

18z NAM is just incredible.

Image


That is something you see in a Noreaster! Widespread 18+ inches. 5+ inches almost scale the entire state of Oklahoma.
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#837 Postby johnmarkthom » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:48 pm

Large portion of MO and some of IL are now under a blizzard warning
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#838 Postby BlueIce » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:42 pm

Blizzard Warnings up in Tulsa.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

OKZ054>064-011100-
/O.CAN.KTSA.WS.W.0003.110201T0000Z-110202T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KTSA.BZ.W.0001.110201T0000Z-110202T0600Z/
OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-
DELAWARE-CREEK-
315 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES...DELAWARE...
PAWNEE...OTTAWA...WASHINGTON...OSAGE...CRAIG AND NOWATA.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE THIS EVENING...AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL LESSEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

* 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 18
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 44. ADDITIONALLY...UP TO ONE INCH OF SLEET IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SNOW DRIFTS OF 2 TO 4
FEET.

* WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES PRODUCING WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

IMPACTS...
* TRAVEL WILL BECOME NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE EVEN ON TREATED SURFACES.
THIS INCLUDES THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE.

* ANY LOSS OF POWER WILL RESULT IN A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS...AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND RESCUE EFFORTS ARE
HAMPERED BY THE ROAD CONDITIONS.

DEFINITION...
* A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND
EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
* EXPECT HOME-BOUND CONDITIONS. TRAVEL TO BECOME NEAR IMPOSSIBLE...WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

* ANY PRE-STORM PREPAREDNESS ACTIVITIES SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED...INCLUDING ENSURING ADEQUATE FOOD AND MEDICAL
SUPPLIES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR
TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT:
WEATHER.GOV/TULSA.

&&

$$
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Re: Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

#839 Postby BlueIce » Mon Jan 31, 2011 4:58 pm

Blizzard Warning for OKC Metro
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING: LIGHT WINTRY MIX BY MIDNIGHT...QUICKLY TURNING TO HEAVY
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY SUNRISE...PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM AROUND 3 AM TO 3
PM. WINDS GUSTING OVER 45 MPH ON TUESDAY...CREATING BLOWING
SNOW...NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...AND EXTREME COLD.

* OTHER IMPACTS: WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* DO NOT TRAVEL! STAY INSIDE! STRONG WINDS AND BLINDING SNOW WILL
MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING STORM.
EVEN PEDESTRIANS IN FAMILIAR AREAS MAY BECOME DISORIENTED.
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#840 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:54 pm

Wow, I had to step away from all weather related information for the past 2.5 hours, and now I come back to see blizzard warnings issued. Crazy! Not that I didn't expect it, but still, I think this is like only the second time in history that OKC has been under a blizzard warning (the other being christmas '09); so that is definitely pretty impressive.

BTW, It looks like the colder push of air is finally here now. We were in the upper 30s/lower 40s earlier, but now we are right near freezing: http://www.mesonet.org/data/public/meso ... 6518030945

Anything that falls from this point out will be of a wintry variety.
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