Texas Winter 2011-2012...

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Shoshana
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#821 Postby Shoshana » Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:36 am

No snow in Austin! (not that I saw anyway) but maybe some flurries further north in Williamson County
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#822 Postby Jarodm » Tue Dec 06, 2011 4:50 am

snow line north west of dfw looking good
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#823 Postby TrekkerCC » Tue Dec 06, 2011 5:26 am

Snow! It was flurrying when I came outside, but I got to see some snow! Based on how the cars look around my neighborhood, it appears like I came out a little after the main burst came in. Snow grains are still on windshields. I'm excited; I hope that this early snowfall is a good omen for later this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#824 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 7:52 am

Well guys for those of you who got a little snow congrats, for those who did not I am sure we will have another shot sometime between now and spring. One thing that I have not seen mentioned but is a given I suppose is our temps over the last few days. Is it me or is it just a tad cold for so late in fall? We are having trouble getting into the 40's here in Denton. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#825 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Dec 06, 2011 8:34 am

Maybe we will see more flurries this evening and overnight?
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#826 Postby Rgv20 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 9:41 am

Congrats to those who saw snow! Here for my area we are going to be dealing with lows below freezing for the next couple of mornings.

Freeze Watch

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
501 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2011

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH TEXAS LATER TONIGHT RESULTING
IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR TO SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
ZAPATA...STARR...JIM HOGG...BROOKS...KENEDY...AND INLAND WILLACY
COUNTIES..WITH MANY AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES APPROACH OR FALL BELOW
FREEZING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH HIDALGO COUNTY IS NOT
IN THE FREEZE WATCH...AREAS NORTH OF EXPRESSWAY 83...GENERALLY NORTH
OF EDINBURG...MAY SEE TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY FALL BELOW FREEZING
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

TXZ248>252-254-061915-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FZ.A.0008.111207T0700Z-111207T1400Z/
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-INLAND WILLACY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...RAYMONDVILLE
501 AM CST TUE DEC 6 2011

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL DECREASE TO OR BELOW FREEZING FOR 3 TO 7
HOURS FROM AROUND 1 AM TO 8 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE TO BETWEEN 29 AND 32 DEGREES WITH
SOME OPEN RANGE LAND POSSIBLY RECORDING TEMPERATURES AROUND 29
DEGREES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.

* IMPACTS...FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AFFECT TENDER PLANTS AND
VEGETATION. PETS AND CATTLE SHOULD HAVE ADEQUATE SHELTER AND
EXPOSED PIPES WILL NEED TO BE COVERED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 2 OR MORE HOURS OF
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

&&

$$
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#827 Postby Kelarie » Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:27 am

Well about an hour or so ago, in Hooks we had sleet coming down. So a little touch of winter. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#828 Postby Portastorm » Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:46 am

Speculation on analog year matchups for this winter included the 2008-09 winter. I find it interesting that December 2008 included a snow event in Austin within the first 10 days of the month. While we didn't get snow yesterday, we came very close to it. That December and this one, so far, seem to mirror each other. Perhaps the analog connection is accurate. We shall see.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#829 Postby GRAYSONCO.WX » Tue Dec 06, 2011 10:52 am

It appears the latest RR run is showing light precip this evening. Anybody else notice this?
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#830 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Dec 06, 2011 11:21 am

I work in DT FTW and never saw a single snow flake yesterday, however this morning I woke to a slight dusting to parts of the roof and cars. Not much but enought to tell we had a few good flurries.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#831 Postby WacoWx » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:15 pm

nws fw

.UPDATE...
CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SMALL DIURNAL CURVE ONLY
AROUND 5-6 DEGREES FOR THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST AND WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 MAY SEE SNOW
FLURRIES AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW. DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF
SNOW BUT A DUSTING OF SNOW ON SOME ROOF TOPS OR VEHICLES CANNOT BE
DISREGARDED. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR ENHANCED RADAR RETURNS THIS
EVENING NEAR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOR AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW. DID END THE FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#832 Postby iorange55 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:17 pm

I have had friends say they had a light dusting on their cars, so I guess my forecast wasn't a total bust! I never saw any flakes, though. Went to bed too early, and woke up too late.

Looking forward to more events this winter. This was a good test, we're ready now.
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#833 Postby WacoWx » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:22 pm

I had a VERY light dusting on my whip this morning. Barista at Starbucks said at ~4:30-5 is when it came down. Too early for my kind.
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#834 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:25 pm

So i see some moisture is popping up around Houston....
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#835 Postby Snowshoe » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:37 pm

Stayed up til about 2 last night and saw some light snow coming down pretty good, wouldnt consider them flurries, a bit heavier. Dusted rooftops and cars here in Carrollton and the bed of my truck has a nice layer in it. Amazing to see, no doubt!
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#836 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Dec 06, 2011 12:44 pm

I know this is way out there but at hours 360-384 the 12Z GFS (twisterdata.com) shows some mighty cold air getting ready to spill over the border and it has quite a bit of snow in the plains at that time as well. Perhaps a setup or trend for a cold and possible White Christmas? Just dreaming...... :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#837 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:27 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:I know this is way out there but at hours 360-384 the 12Z GFS (twisterdata.com) shows some mighty cold air getting ready to spill over the border and it has quite a bit of snow in the plains at that time as well. Perhaps a setup or trend for a cold and possible White Christmas? Just dreaming...... :ggreen:

Not a forecaster, but it would seem the only thing that kept us from a more noteworthy winter weather event this weekend is that fact that the original cold moderated somewhat as it moved south on Saturday. It would stand to reason that more cold and snow across the central plains would equal to less airmass moderation in future cold events.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#838 Postby ludosc » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:44 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I know this is way out there but at hours 360-384 the 12Z GFS (twisterdata.com) shows some mighty cold air getting ready to spill over the border and it has quite a bit of snow in the plains at that time as well. Perhaps a setup or trend for a cold and possible White Christmas? Just dreaming...... :ggreen:

Not a forecaster, but it would seem the only thing that kept us from a more noteworthy winter weather event this weekend is that fact that the original cold moderated somewhat as it moved south on Saturday. It would stand to reason that more cold and snow across the central plains would equal to less airmass moderation in future cold events.


yeah thats the one thing that was missing from this system that i remember seeing in past systems over the last couple of years...
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#839 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:50 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:So i see some moisture is popping up around Houston....

Interesting to see, but I don't see it becoming widespread as there is not a lot of moisture to work with. I guess we can always dream though.
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Re: Texas Winter 2011-2012...

#840 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 06, 2011 1:56 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:I know this is way out there but at hours 360-384 the 12Z GFS (twisterdata.com) shows some mighty cold air getting ready to spill over the border and it has quite a bit of snow in the plains at that time as well. Perhaps a setup or trend for a cold and possible White Christmas? Just dreaming...... :ggreen:

Not a forecaster, but it would seem the only thing that kept us from a more noteworthy winter weather event this weekend is that fact that the original cold moderated somewhat as it moved south on Saturday. It would stand to reason that more cold and snow across the central plains would equal to less airmass moderation in future cold events.


Cold air was there, look at how cold it was in Amarillo the whole time. I think the problem was too much energy was left behind in the SW so warm air advection ahead of the storm that kept reforming and didn't allow the push south as each wave came through. Tonight the entire trough leaves the SW and swings across as a powerful 5h/COLD pocket. But it is too late as the 'pieces' have already came through and used up all of the moisture. It will combine with moisture that was untapped on the east coast to become a big storm whereas here there's nothing left.

Euro and GFS are kicking up the STJ which seems so unusual for La Nina, seen that a lot lately :P :D
Last edited by Ntxw on Tue Dec 06, 2011 3:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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