Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Rgv20]

Just for fun this is the 12zGFS that we were mentioning in the morning....It is forecasting snow for the mountains of Mexico and parts of Texas.

[pwrdog]

I live in a very cold place in SE Texas near Livingston... A creek bottom surrounded by 200-300 foot hills..... SOUTHERN ROUGH, TX (WRRT2) is the only place that can compete normally.. But Conroe is close.. It's already 30 here, 29 just north of Kountze at Southern Rough and 31 in Conroe..

I hit 25 the last two mornings.. 5 miles away at my mothers they hit 29 and 30... It's 100 plus feet higher in elevation..

Souther Rough hit 26 and 26
Conroe hit 27 and 26...

San Augustine, TX (D4271) is maybe 75 miles north and is also one of the coldest spots... It's in what I consider East Texas though.. On clear clam nights they often have the coldest temps I can find in East Texas..

[Cyclenall]

Due to popular demand and uttermost respect of Wxman57, I have made that picture my avatar!

And I hope you remember this event as THE winter event of 2012-2013. I'm ready for summer. Would much rather have highs near 100 degrees than highs near 50 (like today). BRRR!

I'm ready for summer as well, I don't enjoy the cold at all. I agree with all points raised here and I hope the Spring starts in late February here in southern Ontario. I'm looking forward to tracking heatwaves already .

My suspicions were confirmed after this wintry event for parts of Texas, you guys got as much snow as I did from the same winter low pressure system! Normally we would get way more snow and we now have almost nothing left on the ground, trace at best.

[richtrav]

Besides ... isn't it about time for another Rio Grande Valley Snow Miracle?!

Sorry, but the next snowfall isn't scheduled until the year 2114

[Portastorm]

No surprise that the GFS runs overnight have backed off some on the very wintry scenario it was painting for us for Christmas week. As we said yesterday, anticipate lots of volatility in the model runs until it can capture the changes ongoing in the atmosphere. Both the AO and NAO look to stay negative for much of the remainder of this month and we're seeing increasing signals that the subtropical jet will become much more active in the next 2-3 weeks. All of this suggests a more active and possible colder period ahead.

I also noticed the CFSv2 forecasts for the last week of December and first week of January have cooled considerably for Texas. Even more encouraging is that portions of Texas appear to be slightly wetter than normal during that period. Yeah, I'd love some real cold weather but at this point, and more importantly, I'd take any precip we can get!

[wxman57]

At least our resident heat miser doesn't have much ammo to deter us . His warm posts have been lacking lately, hmm no zonal flow runs maybe?

I've been burning furniture trying to stay warm. Long-range models don't have much agreement. At least overnight GFS indicates a warm-up on Christmas with a low only into the mid 50s. No 80s on the horizon, though.

[Snowman67]

At least our resident heat miser doesn't have much ammo to deter us . His warm posts have been lacking lately, hmm no zonal flow runs maybe?

I've been burning furniture trying to stay warm. Long-range models don't have much agreement. At least overnight GFS indicates a warm-up on Christmas with a low only into the mid 50s. No 80s on the horizon, though.

I hope by the end of this winter you have no furniture left :

[wxman57]

There is hope on the horizon (for me). Temps up near 80 degrees a week from today. Unfortunately, a cold front follows the warm up, dropping Houston down near freezing on Christmas Eve morning. Warm-up on Christmas Day, though:

[Snowman67]

There is hope on the horizon (for me). Temps up near 80 degrees a week from today. Unfortunately, a cold front follows the warm up, dropping Houston down near freezing on Christmas Eve morning. Warm-up on Christmas Day, though:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zdec13.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec13.gif

Is there an archive of these temp forecasts that one can access? I'd love to go back and see how accurate these temp forecasts are beyond 10 days.

[wxman57]

There is hope on the horizon (for me). Temps up near 80 degrees a week from today. Unfortunately, a cold front follows the warm up, dropping Houston down near freezing on Christmas Eve morning. Warm-up on Christmas Day, though:

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfs12zdec13.gif

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/iahgfsx12zdec13.gif

Is there an archive of these temp forecasts that one can access? I'd love to go back and see how accurate these temp forecasts are beyond 10 days.

No, there's no archive. But I can tell you that out to 10 days the answer would be "not very accurate". Pretty good out to 4-5 days, though. There's a tutorial here on the forum that will guide you through the preparation of one of these graphics. Takes only about 2-3 minutes once you get the hang of it.

[Ntxw]

Both GFS and Euro are still suggesting a cold snap for the Holiday. Crossing fingers, if anything that is the one time of the year Wxman57 must give us our cold day

[Portastorm]

I would say the 12z Euro is not only suggesting it ... it's shouting: "All Aboard the Arctic Express!" Take a look at that 1050mb high coming into the Northern Plains. As old sportscaster Keith Jackson might say: "whoa nellie!"



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Would love for that 1050 high to plow unmodified into the Gulf!!!

[somethingfunny]

It's still there on the 12z GFS.

[orangeblood]

We finally have the negative EPO showing up on both the GFS and now the Euro.....hallelujah!!!

[wxman57]

It's still there on the 12z GFS.

http://i.imgur.com/HqKEC.gif

Correct, and the fact that the 12Z GFS 2-meter dew point is around 13F for Christmas Eve suggest the airmass is of a quite cold nature. For now, I'll just look forward to the upper 70s next Thursday...

[Kludge]

It's still there on the 12z GFS.

http://i.imgur.com/HqKEC.gif

Yep... and Porta has snow knocking on his door at that hour.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Negative AO, Negative EPO, positive PNA, MJO into Octant 1


HELLO ARCTIC DOCTOR!

[Ntxw]

Severe cold outbreak potential is higher than it was last year. We have been quietly seeing hints over the past month with the severely -AO.

[somethingfunny]

The Euro depiction of the 23rd, which is as far out into the future as publicly released Euro maps extend:



Quick primer for new folks... this map depicts the surface pressures, but the temperatures at 850mb which is roughly a mile above the ground. The blue/green boundary is the freezing line at 850mb. ECMWF doesn't release precipitation maps from the Euro model for free like NCEP does with the GFS model. If you want an accurate forecast as opposed to an entertaining forecast, you should always check the ensemble images of GFS and Euro to see how well they match up, because the operational runs of these models can vary wildly from run to run. And of course, anything depicted from ten or more days in advance is probably voodoo that won't verify. But it's entertaining! That 1051mb high in Saskatchewan looks like serious business for a very cold Christmas. I get my model data here though there are other excellent sources: http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html