Texas Winter 2017-2018

[srainhoutx]

Both the 12Z NAM 3KM and 12KM suggest areas inland across portions of Harris and Montgomery Counties could see an inch or two of snow on grassy surfaces and car tops. Temperatures at 2 meters suggest 36F. Going to be a close call and we'll just have to watch the radar trends as the day wears on into tonight. The forecast had rain ending today, but picking up as the upper air disturbance rolls along E along or just N of I-10.

[wxman57]

Oh gee, here we go again..man oh man...I swear I am going to go to your office and (if it snows) take a picture of you and the snow...remember, I am 5 miles from you..

I'll be at home this evening, watching the Saints and looking out the window. Come on by. I told you guys I'd let you have your cold, icy winter this year after I had the winter of my dreams last year. Now, I can't promise many of these events, as it's difficult to counter the effects of La Nina more than once or twice.

[jaguars_22]

I have 2 toddlers who would love to see snow!! I remember i had to wait 25 years just to see snow, and it happened at christmas in 04... Just give Victoria an inch or 2, Its just not as cold as it was back then when the miracle happened...

[srainhoutx]

FWD reports some light snow flurries at their office.

[Ntxw]

FWD reports some light snow flurries at their office.

The secondary vorticity coming down has provided some weak lift, not surprised by this report and may see more going on in NTX. In fact it may increase in coverage from the southwest.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just drove through Conroe. I swear there were small flakes mixing in.

[Snowman67]

So much for the "cancel winter" posts a few days ago.

[Ntxw]

For you NTX people, some light reflectivity

[gboudx]

FWD reports some light snow flurries at their office.

The secondary vorticity coming down has provided some weak lift, not surprised by this report and may see more going on in NTX. In fact it may increase in coverage from the southwest.

I can report some light flurries here in Rockwall. And the temp has been dropping all morning. Was 44 at 6:15, now 39.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

:uarrow: It is possible to get cooler. You never know with these systems. They can bring down colder air if precip is heavy enough.

True. Specifically with 2004, the forecast was so far off at that time. They werent optimistic for hardly any snow at all.
The bullseye for that event was around Victoria, TX.
When will the gulf low develop?

If I recall, our local mets both on TV and the NWS were on board the sleet and freezing rain train, but light accumulations. Then when it looked like a snow event, again they were with the mantra of little or no accumulation. We woke up Christmas with 7 inches of snow on my side of town and just up the road up to a foot. I recall watching the even unfold on here and it's very similar. Just the air temps are warmer.

[Ntxw]

If I recall, our local mets both on TV and the NWS were on board the sleet and freezing rain train, but light accumulations. Then when it looked like a snow event, again they were with the mantra of little or no accumulation. We woke up Christmas with 7 inches of snow on my side of town and just up the road up to a foot. I recall watching the even unfold on here and it's very similar. Just the air temps are warmer.

There is a secondary surge of cold coming from the north. As you can see with the sites in the northern part of the state. That together with dynamic lift provided with the system should make for an interesting night in S/SE Texas

[Yukon Cornelius]

DFW has been falling throughout the morning as second surge of cold air has pushed through and gusting winds. This should be making it's way south into the evening. Surface freezing line is approaching and located in Southern Oklahoma. 850mb analysis shows 0C well deep into Texas. Abilene and Wichita Falls is already near or below freezing.

http://i66.tinypic.com/2yvt27o.png

http://i64.tinypic.com/vfxkht.gif

http://i67.tinypic.com/5nsxi.gif

I would say this is a pretty good early December cold snap

My station is reporting 30-31 with a windchill of 18, a little NE of Wichita Falls in NW Clay County.

[CaptinCrunch]

Seeing a few flurries here in DTW FTW, this 2nd surge of cold will hold temps in the lower 40's all day, and lows are still looking to be mid 20's even in the heart of DFW.

Also lows are looking to be 30-32 for Saturday and Sunday morning...

[wxman57]

Both the WRF and NAM are coming in colder aloft and with heavier precip. I've seen many such events over my nearly 4 decades as a meteorologist here, but I've rarely seen the models predicting such cold air aloft. Usually they indicate a warm nose (above-freezing layer) between 5000-10,000 feet up that just barely erodes as the precip comes to an end. Not so this time. If the models are correct, we will definitely see snow across a large part of coastal Texas and SE Louisiana. I think it could be heavy enough to accumulate, at least briefly, on cars and grassy areas. It'll be hard for it to accumulate on roadways, as the roads should remain above freezing.

Best time for snow in the Houston area will be from around 7pm to 4am tonight. After 4am or so, the air aloft will become too dry for precip.

[CaptinCrunch]

High's tomorrow here in NTX may stay in the upper 40's to near 50, won't be surprised to see NWS adjust temps down a little for tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

Both the WRF and NAM are coming in colder aloft and with heavier precip. I've seen many such events over my nearly 4 decades as a meteorologist here, but I've rarely seen the models predicting such cold air aloft. Usually they indicate a warm nose (above-freezing layer) between 5000-10,000 feet up that just barely erodes as the precip comes to an end. Not so this time. If the models are correct, we will definitely see snow across a large part of coastal Texas and SE Louisiana. I think it could be heavy enough to accumulate, at least briefly, on cars and grassy areas. It'll be hard for it to accumulate on roadways, as the roads should remain above freezing.

Best time for snow in the Houston area will be from around 7pm to 4am tonight. After 4am or so, the air aloft will become too dry for precip.

Those are soundings you usually see in North Texas in the fluffy snow department. Quite rare along the gulf coast.

[gpsnowman]

Light snow falling at Hwy 360 and 183. What a nice surprise. Ok, back to work.

[Ntxw]

Light snow falling at Hwy 360 and 183. What a nice surprise. Ok, back to work.

Yep getting light flurries here too and many areas in the metroplex

[wxman57]

Both the WRF and NAM are coming in colder aloft and with heavier precip. I've seen many such events over my nearly 4 decades as a meteorologist here, but I've rarely seen the models predicting such cold air aloft. Usually they indicate a warm nose (above-freezing layer) between 5000-10,000 feet up that just barely erodes as the precip comes to an end. Not so this time. If the models are correct, we will definitely see snow across a large part of coastal Texas and SE Louisiana. I think it could be heavy enough to accumulate, at least briefly, on cars and grassy areas. It'll be hard for it to accumulate on roadways, as the roads should remain above freezing.

Best time for snow in the Houston area will be from around 7pm to 4am tonight. After 4am or so, the air aloft will become too dry for precip.

Those are soundings you usually see in North Texas in the fluffy snow department. Quite rare along the gulf coast.

Yeah, very unusual for this far south. The big issue down here is the surface temps being just above freezing. Of course, if we do get any significant snow falling then it might cool surface temps to below freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

FWD reports some light snow flurries at their office.

The secondary vorticity coming down has provided some weak lift, not surprised by this report and may see more going on in NTX. In fact it may increase in coverage from the southwest.

Could this be ascent coming from the "front" coming down. This is the same boundary that will lower temps aloft for us.

Like Wxman sais, i havent been watching weather at this great of detail long but havent seen heights this low over us before. Its apparent in the GFS. Maybe this is why models are struggling with the precip type.

Ntx, been watching the SPC map as well, thats the key for when the turnover will happen. 850 0C line needs to make it to the coast, 925MB has to be near the Houston area for some luck. Not seeing in any way of sleet or snowflakes here either like Wxman said earlier. Sounding profile shows how thats not exactly possible or could be widespread.

Glad to see Dallas area seeing some flurries!!!! You guys never seem to miss out hahaha

Currently 44 and holding at TPB. It was 43F at daybreak.

Not to jinx us, Also like to remind you guys which model saw this first..... Crazy Uncle CMC himself.