Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

This little cold snap of ours is rather cold for 1030s HP up north. Cold air damming up against the Rockies

[bubba hotep]

Temps are already running 3-5 degrees cooler across portions of N. Texas than the 12z 3K NAM, down to 30 in Denton and McKinney is 36. The HRRR is also running too warm just an hour into the run.

[downsouthman1]

Temps are already running 3-5 degrees cooler across portions of N. Texas than the 12z 3K NAM, down to 30 in Denton and McKinney is 36. The HRRR is also running too warm just an hour into the run.

Noticed too the front is being modeled too slowly across the state, per obs.

[Ntxw]

DFW airport is down to 37F, three degree drop from the past hour.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3K NAM is also seeing a colder column and generating more sleet than freezing rain.

[Yukon Cornelius]

What a change in temp. Yesterday was a high of 76, this morning it’s currently 23 with freezing fog. The low was forecasted to be 31. Another bust. Also, the forecasted high for today has changed 4 times in the last 24 hours. Instead of changing to colder which is usually what happens during fronts, they’re trending it warmer, which I don’t see happening.

[bubba hotep]

DFW airport is down to 37F, three degree drop from the past hour.

Alliance is now down to 30 and DFW to 36.

[Texas Snowman]

The GFS has been too warm and slow with frontal passages for quite a while now. I think most of us know the high-res models (NAM, HRRR, ARW) handle temperatures with cold fronts much better.

There is an inherit problem even beyond this. It's not even initializing properly when the cold is here. Every single cold snap. Good lord Jesus sure if it's missing 7 days out I can give it some slack but when you're inside 3 days and you're off consistently nearly 10F degrees and folks touting no freezes for the next 16 days from its run is just...I have no words for it.

Am I blowing it up more than it is? Maybe, sure but it's caused who knows how many frustrating thread canceling posts.

No, I don’t think you are. I’ve grown a little weary of the daily model roller coaster. Of posts that are one day reveling in a model run showing the snowstorm of the century, only 24 hours later to be lamenting about record warmth that is supposedly coming. It’s gotten to the point where sometimes I don’t even want to come in here to check the thread out depending on who made the last post.

Maybe it’s personal stuff (middle age, losing my dad, the nest becoming empty, being very sick between Thanksgiving and Christmas, etc.) or just being overly sensitive about all of this.

But as you’ve mentioned, this thread resembles some of the tropical threads on occasion and it doesn’t seem as enjoyable as it has been in some past years.

Even if we’re over 400 pages before Valentine’s Day.

[Texas Snowman]

So please, someone, anyone, get the models performing more consistently someday soon!

[South Texas Storms]

I think a lot of it has to do with all of the Dallas area posters in here who are desperate to see snow. It's been nice of yall to share some of the white gold with your snow starved friends in south Texas this year.

Like Joe Bastardi always says, enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got.

[SouthernMet]

Fresh RGEM run showing a convective band of sleet/freezing rain over the metroplex with temps 25-26 degrees around 10am.(3k NAM showing 28) RGEM is currently running about 10 degrees too warm

[Texas Snowman]

:uarrow:
I think a lot of it has to do with all of the Dallas area posters in here who are desperate to see snow. It's been nice of yall to share some of the white gold with your snow starved friends in south Texas this year.

Like Joe Bastardi always says, enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got.

Yes it has been a good winter for y’all this year. The best part of the season has been seeing you good folks get snow and cold. Very happy for y’all!

And yes, I’ve thought a lot about Bastardi’s saying a lot recently because it’s true!

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I am now at 35, dew-point 33.

[Tammie]

Denton just put under a Winter Weather Advisory due to freezing rain/drizzle currently falling. This forecast has been such a bust... in a good way because I'm desperate for anything frozen!

[JayDT]

Before I went to bed, I checked on the weather and I remember seeing it was supposed to be in like the upper 40s at this time.. I wake up, and it’s currently 36 degrees?.. Completely unexpected lol

[Ntxw]

So please, someone, anyone, get the models performing more consistently someday soon!

I don't fully blame our posters for this either. Much comes from the models. They have been somewhat decent at 500mb but the surface is not the same. The clear issue this winter is models underestimate surface cold because aloft the pattern is not ideal when cold does come. Hanging it up, or just not seeing the bleeding cold. Seasoned posters, pro mets reiterate constantly look at your source regions and look at the trends. Just got to listen to reason as they are explained what biases to look for from the guidance. Stay the course.

That's just for cold, snow is a different creature and I'm with y'all. North of I-20 has been shafted so far

[Tammie]

And POOF! Just like that the banner is gone from TWC app?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

North Texas really trying to be like SE TX this weekend arent ya! Kidding. I'm happy for you guys. I need a bit of a thaw here in SE Tx anyway. Been cold since Jan 2, especially with my trip to CO.

I really hope the SSW plays out though. Interested to see what happens. You guys stay safe up there!

[EnnisTx]

And POOF! Just like that the banner is gone from TWC app?

It won't be to long before DFW area is under an advisory. Probably before 18z

[bubba hotep]

As mentioned earlier, the RGEM came in wetter and the GFS continues to focus on the same area. Obviously, this won't be snow but it is looking like sleet could be possible.