Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ntxw]

GOES east view you can see the snow cover we have currently in the north. A little bare spot in South Dakota.

https://i.imgur.com/M29is6y.gif .

DFW did not break 40 today. -19F departure from normal, 37/22 is pretty darn close to the coldest day we've had this winter 34/20 back on Jan 20th.

I have a question. Why does the system next week weaken as it heads east and what needs to happen for it not to weaken? Hopefully that makes sense lol

TPV over the GL is shredder. There's also no PVa stream coming in from the north to phase with it. It does happen once it reaches the Atlantic coast. Ideally you'd look for the TPV to open up and not be so wound up, and then the S/W to be stronger than the models are currently seeing.

[Golfisnteasy7575]

GOES east view you can see the snow cover we have currently in the north. A little bare spot in South Dakota.

https://i.imgur.com/M29is6y.gif .

DFW did not break 40 today. -19F departure from normal, 37/22 is pretty darn close to the coldest day we've had this winter 34/20 back on Jan 20th.

I have a question. Why does the system next week weaken as it heads east and what needs to happen for it not to weaken? Hopefully that makes sense lol

TPV over the GL is shredder. There's also no PVa stream coming in from the north to phase with it. It does happen once it reaches the Atlantic coast. Ideally you'd look for the TPV to open up and not be so wound up, and then the S/W to be stronger than the models are currently seeing.

Is there time realistically for that to occur?

[Ntxw]

I have a question. Why does the system next week weaken as it heads east and what needs to happen for it not to weaken? Hopefully that makes sense lol

TPV over the GL is shredder. There's also no PVa stream coming in from the north to phase with it. It does happen once it reaches the Atlantic coast. Ideally you'd look for the TPV to open up and not be so wound up, and then the S/W to be stronger than the models are currently seeing.

Is there time realistically for that to occur?

Yes, you'd be rooting for the GFS in that case because it's been trending that way. The other models are TPV dominant/too cold.

[Stratton23]

we are still 7 days out , plenty of time for changes with shortwave strength, positioning or how far it digs, id probably be more concerned with precipitation chances once we get inside of 4 days of the event

[Golfisnteasy7575]

TPV over the GL is shredder. There's also no PVa stream coming in from the north to phase with it. It does happen once it reaches the Atlantic coast. Ideally you'd look for the TPV to open up and not be so wound up, and then the S/W to be stronger than the models are currently seeing.

Is there time realistically for that to occur?

Yes, you'd be rooting for the GFS in that case because it's been trending that way. The other models are TPV dominant/too cold.

I think we need to focus on march if the mjo will be in the colder phases like you mentioned for maybe an opportunity then at a unexpected winter event, which have happened before

[wxman22]

Yikes!



https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1890166699720409356

[Ntxw]

Yikes!

https://i.ibb.co/cXX9Y1dL/cold.png

https://x.com/NWSNorman/status/1890166699720409356

Most of the guidance has it pretty wild up in Oklahoma. Snow in the single digits with strong winds from the Arctic front. Even on the GFS. Stratton would be sitting on his beach chair with coconut drink in that front.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw more like eating a DQ blizzard

[Golfisnteasy7575]

Ntxw more like eating a DQ blizzard

Those are wonderful and also good for you

[wxman57]

I plotted all model forecasts for Houston next Wed-Fri. ICON is by far the coldest with a low of 20 on Thursday. Canadian is second coldest at 25. Model consensus is upper 20s Thursday morning. Just a light freeze here. Could be some light snow/freezing rain up north (D-FW area) as the upper trof passes on Wednesday. Nothing like January 21. My pilot is standing down. No evacuation for me.

MAWA!

[CaptinCrunch]

DFW was 3 degrees colder than it's forecast high and low, so just goes to show you that models are not the end all be all with these cold fronts. I think the next front Saturday will be the same way and it will even colder air, and the cold should over perform. Just need the moisture to cash in and I really don't care if it's freezing rain, sleet or snow, just not rain!!

[Quixotic]

I'd be careful believing the ICON or CMC at this point. They did poorly across Texas for the January 21 event. Way too cold for Houston. Euro may have a good handle on it. Will have to see what kind of airmass comes down.

I'm sensing a disturbance in the force!

https://i.imgur.com/FIQGAbV.gif



Will we see a -5 AO? -3.7 today with a few more days to go. 2021, 2010, 2009, 1985, 1978, 1977 are the other -5s. I think 60s had a couple.

Thats a list of banger winters.

[gpsnowman]

Ryan Maue just now
https://x.com/RyanMaue/status/1890225838966337597

[Ntxw]

ICON is running, while we wait below are some precursor cold loading Beaufort/Arctic Highs prior to their Arctic outbreaks via the AO.

Current ~1057mb



Dec 2022 - 1054mb



Feb 2021 - record holder 1064 up there.

[Ntxw]

ICON is still pretty cold but the system is squashed for the most part with a large TPV sprawling vortex to the north. By numbers it's also slower with the cold and is a little warmer than last night's 0z and 12z.

[txtwister78]

Oh, I'd say that's a big reversal on the ICON (warmer) for max temps especially next week into Texas. Went from this on 12z to this now for the same time period. The GFS has some company now. Still some hard freezes though on the ICON deep into Texas but even that doesn't look as bad as the previous runs.

[Stratton23]

Hopefully the ICON reverses this bad run on the 12z tommorow

[Ntxw]

Hopefully the ICON reverses this bad run on the 12z tommorow

Not much ice and snow on this run compared to 12z which was significant. Even with this milder look, you're still looking at coldest temps of the winter for some. Noting again the records for late Feb.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw i think its just the weather nerd side of me coming out, i know some folks don’t like the extremes, but i just cant help but get excited when i see crazy temperatures being put out by models , though gotta still keep expectations to reality lol, ill take a hard freeze though

[Ntxw]

Ntxw i think its just the weather nerd side of me coming out, i know some folks don’t like the extremes, but i just cant help but get excited when i see crazy temperatures being put out by models , though gotta still keep expectations to reality lol, ill take a hard freeze though

I think we all get a little excited, that is the point of the board . Open space to think and talk, not about being right but discussion. Let's see what the other models say!