Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

As mentioned earlier, the RGEM came in wetter and the GFS continues to focus on the same area. Obviously, this won't be snow but it is looking like sleet could be possible.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_9.png

Whew that's a rather thin band of 1-2 county wide diagonally of convective stuff. You'll have some posters with pings while others very angry

[EnnisTx]

As mentioned earlier, the RGEM came in wetter and the GFS continues to focus on the same area. Obviously, this won't be snow but it is looking like sleet could be possible.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... scus_9.png

Whew that's a rather thin band of 1-2 county wide diagonally of convective stuff. You'll have some posters with pings while others very angry

Looks like I'm right in the middle of it. I think this will expand over night as a convective band develops and with a bit more moisture to work with who knows.

[Ntxw]

Check out the temperatures in Montana, for a rather wimpy HP. Not even close to 1050+. No wonder temps are overperforming



Quite nice to see a bit of a western trough, really allows the cold to slide due S from Canada to Tampico

[srainhoutx]

I am getting a bit concerned that our temperatures forecasted for highs tomorrow and Monday may be in jeopardy. The latest NAM solutions suggest most, if not all of SE Texas may struggle to reach the mid to upper 30's with little in a diurnal change from overnight lows. Breezy frigid Northerly winds are likely to drop wind chills down to the low 20's, possibly upper teens across the Hill Country and College Station. The 2 meter temperatures suggest no freezing, but is precariously close to 32F for some locations. There is still a very slight chance someone to the N and W of Metro Houston may see a wintry mix tomorrow.

[South Texas Storms]

The pattern sure looks active over the next few weeks, with multiple troughs digging into the SW US per the operational and ensemble models. I hope it verifies, as areas west of Houston haven't seen much rain at all so far this year (Austin and SA have seen less than 0.50 inch in 2018). Not a good start to the year. As we know though, it only takes 1 or 2 good rain events to change that!

[Ntxw]

The pattern sure looks active over the next few weeks, with multiple troughs digging into the SW US per the operational and ensemble models. I hope it verifies, as areas west of Houston haven't seen much rain at all so far this year (Austin and SA have seen less than 0.50 inch in 2018). Not a good start to the year. As we know though, it only takes 1 or 2 good rain events to change that!

Very wet pattern. SOI is still negative and may dive lower with SPAC cyclone activity. I'd make a hedge fund bet models will try to hold up cold again this week with the SW low and next spoke of cold air. 500mb flow they love to pump up heat with that and have a field day. We'll see if the surface says otherwise.

[South Texas Storms]

The pattern sure looks active over the next few weeks, with multiple troughs digging into the SW US per the operational and ensemble models. I hope it verifies, as areas west of Houston haven't seen much rain at all so far this year (Austin and SA have seen less than 0.50 inch in 2018). Not a good start to the year. As we know though, it only takes 1 or 2 good rain events to change that!

Very wet pattern. SOI is still negative and may dive lower with SPAC cyclone activity. I'd make a hedge fund bet models will try to hold up cold again this week with the SW low and the next spoke of cold air. 500mb flow they love to pump up heat with that and have a field day. We'll see if the surface says otherwise.

Yep, we've already seen a few models try to show that late this week. I bet the cold makes it farther south than they indicate.

With the periodic cold shots coming down and the active pattern likely upcoming, chances are that some parts of TX will see a winter storm risk. As always, timing is everything.

[Longhornmaniac8]

Cold front is blowing through Georgetown.

[bubba hotep]

Strong CAA continues with Denton down to 28 and the freeze line sagging into Downtown Ft. Worth. Grapevine is 32 and DFW is down to 34, so the airport will probably drop below freezing in the next hour or so. Now the question? Do we see any rebound in temps this afternoon or will CAA and cloud cover be enough to keep things dropping? Latest run of the HRRR still can't keep up with the drops.

[Ntxw]

I think it will rebound some today but not by much. It won't matter though tonight everyone should be in the 20s. Waiting game for some mesoscale precip shield to develop overnight if it does.

[Ntxw]

Arctic outbreak on the 12z GFS late next weekend/early following week

[South Texas Storms]

With a deep trough digging into the West US. That spells a major winter storm for the battleground area. On the 12z run, it's in KS.

[Texas Snow]

I like where this is trending




FXUS64 KFWD 101642 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1042 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018


.UPDATE...
The arctic airmass associated with this morning`s cold front has
made it through all but the southeastern-most counties late this
morning. Due to the shallow nature of the airmass, guidance has
had difficulty keeping up with the post-frontal temperature drop.
The leading edge of the freezing temperatures has already reached
a Bonham-Fort Worth-Comanche line and will continue to drop
southward this afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile, occasional light drizzle will switch over to freezing
drizzle as temperatures fall below 32. Precipitation is very light
and we do not expect any accumulations this afternoon. However, a
few slick spots on elevated surfaces and bridges can not be ruled
out, particularly for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor.

An upper level disturbance is still slated to move overhead late
tonight through Sunday morning. This is when we could see some
accumulations significant enough to produce travel delays due to
ice on both bridges and roads. The Winter Weather Advisory which
is in effect for tonight through Sunday morning across areas
southwest of the DFW Metroplex will likely need to be expanded
northeastward across the Metroplex, and possibly all the way to
the northeast counties based on the recent model guidance. This
expansion will be done with the afternoon forecast package when we
have gotten a good look at the suite of midday model guidance.

[rwfromkansas]

Much of the central US has had crappy winters of late. Our lack of precipitation has afflicted OK and KS and MO as well. Hopefully this will help folks out everywhere. My dad in KS has not been able to use the snowblower in years.

[JayDT]

I like where this is trending




FXUS64 KFWD 101642 AAA
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1042 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2018


.UPDATE...
The arctic airmass associated with this morning`s cold front has
made it through all but the southeastern-most counties late this
morning. Due to the shallow nature of the airmass, guidance has
had difficulty keeping up with the post-frontal temperature drop.
The leading edge of the freezing temperatures has already reached
a Bonham-Fort Worth-Comanche line and will continue to drop
southward this afternoon and evening.

Meanwhile, occasional light drizzle will switch over to freezing
drizzle as temperatures fall below 32. Precipitation is very light
and we do not expect any accumulations this afternoon. However, a
few slick spots on elevated surfaces and bridges can not be ruled
out, particularly for areas along and north of the I-20 corridor.

An upper level disturbance is still slated to move overhead late
tonight through Sunday morning. This is when we could see some
accumulations significant enough to produce travel delays due to
ice on both bridges and roads. The Winter Weather Advisory which
is in effect for tonight through Sunday morning across areas
southwest of the DFW Metroplex will likely need to be expanded
northeastward across the Metroplex, and possibly all the way to
the northeast counties based on the recent model guidance. This

Ok, I like this too!

So they’re thinking temps are gonna keep dropping throughout the day right?

[Brent]

hmmm

well I'm liking the trends

and I never expected it to be this cold this early

[rwfromkansas]

Stuck at 31.5 in north FW, but it is below freezing.

[Ralph's Weather]

Down to 49 here.

[South Texas Storms]

Chances are increasing that areas from the Hill Country up into north TX will see some freezing rain and sleet showers tonight into tomorrow. Accumulations look generally light, but it doesn't take much to cause issues.

Doesn't look like we will see any snow with this round of frozen precipitation.

[Haris]

Do yall think W ATX could see some ice and sleet ? How is the Baja Cali system doing? Could it enhance precip?