Texas Winter 2013-2014

[dhweather]

Well things have changed in Heath - freezing rain and light sleet mixed in it. Small icicles on an urn on the patio.

[Tcu101]

10 day running temperatures at DFW (Feb 1 to Feb 10) are -11.4 degrees below normal. It will be close to -12 degrees after today so far for the month. Pretty decent cold spell ! The bad part it was dry and we need the moisture no mater the p-type

[Texas Snowman]

Nothing but rocks and a little bit of occasional sunshine here in Denison. Precp is showing up on the radar in all directions but nothing here in the immediate vicinity of the Red River Valley office of the PWC.

While I'm not tossing in the towel (I will hold out hope every year through the end of March) I do feel a bit of Portastorm's pain. We have had four winter weather "events" since Super Bowl Sunday here in D-Town. And so far, I haven't seen an inch of accumulation from all of them combined.

But there will be a day...

Meanwhile, another day with an official freeze goes into the books. Quite the cold mongerer style of winter we are having. Even if it isn't snowy enough!

[orangeblood]

What?? You mean to tell me that there's not a widespread blizzard raging in the DFW metroplex at this hour? Why, last night I saw posts on here that the NWSFO DFW folks were clueless and that this model and that model showed horrific amounts of wintry precipitation and we should have all kinds of warnings issued and .... Cat 5 in the Gulf!!

Is it conceivable that one of the best NWSFOs in the USA had a good handle on this event after all?

I'm shocked ... shocked, I tell you!

So we're now keeping a scorecard on the regional offices ? Because if we were, the FW office is probably batting around .250 this winter. You conveniently failed to mention the 200+ accidents (some fatal) across DFW before 10pm last night, hours before any advisory was due to begin ? is that is considered a good handle on an event ? I'm sorry but when you are considered the foremost authority for giving the public advanced notice on potential dangerous situations - IMO, you are held to a higher standard of practice. Looking at the system in it's entirety - Yes, they did a good job with today's event but completely blew yesterdays for DFW so I'm not sure if they had a "good handle" on this storm system...but hey, this is one of the many reasons this country of ours is so wonderful - we're all entitled to an opinion (as long as it's civilized ) particularly when it comes to public servants


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Lagreeneyes03]

False spring is coming next week to week and half. I will post analogs and maps later this evening. Zonal flow is going to lose yet again to the Pacific as the guidance continue to break it down compared to last week.

You think it will be similar to the thaw in January? 7-10 days of bliss followed by BLAMMO? We're working against increasingly longer days now, time is running out.

It is a similar pattern but not similar result. You are correct climo is getting warmer so the warmups are stronger and lasts a little longer but it is not the end of cold anomalies. Like I said neutral years strongly favor a cold start to spring and cool through at least April. We saw a neutral in action 1 year ago with the birth of that same warm pool.

I do remember how cold last spring was, first weekend in May I was at the Jimmy Buffett concert and I was freezing. It was about 55 with a wind chill. Many people left before the show was even over. I had to buy a Margaritaville towel at the souvenir stand just to keep warm.

[cycloneye]

Unfortunately those same analogs do not favor a wet and stormy spring. Cooler gulf and lack of instability are depicted well in the composite, our best hope for siginificant rain will be if El Nino gets going early summer.

Maybe maybe this is the beginning of a definite warming trend of ENSO.

[Ralph's Weather]

Raining pretty hard, can't tell if sleet mixed in from office window, with temp 32/29.

[Portastorm]

No, my friend ... it's not about keeping score. To me it's more about owning up when folks call a forecaster or forecasters out and they end up being the wrong ones. The posts from last night are there for all to see. And there were multiple folks on this thread who participated. I've called out EWX before and I've been wrong plenty of times and owned up to it.

The NWS offices and the men and women who work in them are not perfect by any stretch. But unless you have a blue tag on this forum, none of us could do what they do day and night. none of us! Oh, you might handle a few days well in the summertime when there's no challenge ... but try a few events like we've had this winter. Your local NWS office is great about interacting with the public. I strongly recommend that you or anyone else who had issue with how they handled things last night ... write them an email and share your frustrations. Ask them why they didn't issue Warning X or Statement Y like you thought they should. See what they say.

Just because a Freezing Rain Advisory wasn't active for some areas which saw light freezing rain last night (and traffic woes) doesn't mean they didn't have a handle on things. They had freezing rain in the forecast for those areas. Yeah, there were off by a few hours. That happens. They weren't perfect. It happens with every NWSFO in this country in some form or fashion. But overall, they had this event down pretty good.

Both as a member and moderator on this forum, I enjoy and encourage lively dialogue and debate. I also think folks should own up when they make bold forecasts or criticisms and those forecasts/criticisms turn out to be wrong. A number of folks here skewered NWS Fort Worth pretty good last night ... seems to be a little dose of humility and a side dish of crow are in order. That's the last I'm going to say anything about it.

[Kelarie]

It is currently sleeting just outside of Texarkana. Coming down at a steady clip. 32 degrees.

[CaptinCrunch]

The NWOFW does a excellent job with our weather here in the NTX area for the most part. I would agree that they missed late yesterday's icing event across the area. I sit here last night and listened to the police scanner and our poor men and women in blue was being pulled in every direction. They couldn't keep up with the number calls to block on ramps, overpasses, and cover the 16 major and 8 minor accidents that occurred between the hours of 8 and 10pm. (Arlington Police and Fire dispatch)

I will admit yesterdays forecast was a tricky one, but I do think they should of gave more consideration to the RAP and HRRR. It wasn't till this morning when WFAA morning mets actually talked about and showed what the RAP model forecasted.

With that being said I'm ready for a warm up this weekend and the coming week, my electric bills needs it.....lol

[Tireman4]

False spring is coming next week to week and half. I will post analogs and maps later this evening. Zonal flow is going to lose yet again to the Pacific as the guidance continue to break it down compared to last week.

So our Spring Break (second week of March) will be cold (Texas standards)? Woo Hoooooo

[wxman57]

Be thankful none of you lives in central Georgia, where the 12Z GFS is forecasting 2" of freezing rain the next day or so. I wouldn't "buy" the GFS beyond 3-4 days as there are major differences between it and the Euro by early next week. The GFS totally misses a short wave and cold front passage through Texas next Tuesday. Both agree on a deepening trof across the SW U.S. by Friday the 21st, however.

Meanwhile, I plan to thoroughly enjoy the "false spring" coming up shortly (allowing for the good chance that next Tuesday's temps won't be as warm as in the graphic below)!

Hey! I see someone posted a video on Youtube made when I was 4 years old:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FaoyO9qitQs

[Tireman4]

Both as a member and moderator on this forum, I enjoy and encourage lively dialogue and debate. I also think folks should own up when they make bold forecasts or criticisms and those forecasts/criticisms turn out to be wrong. A number of folks here skewered NWS Fort Worth pretty good last night ... seems to be a little dose of humility and a side dish of crow are in order. That's the last I'm going to say anything about it.[/quote]

Well, what does the PWC say? They are the only word in weather I trust. In Grey Goose I trust!!!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Hopefully they get more sleet than rain in GA.

Im hoping El Nino can pick up, that would be great.

[Ralph's Weather]

Anyone know why the RAP has been continually insisting on a warm up today? This morning it claimed we would be 43 right now while we are at 32, it is still doing this even on the current runs. That being said does anyone have a way of verifying whether this is an issue throughout the column?

BTW we have been in a light to moderate freezing rain for a while now and it looks like we will stay in frozen precip for the remainder of the day into tonight. Current temp 32/30 with icles on the trees.

[weatherdude1108]

A little icing still ongoing in portions of EWX's CWA:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1226 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST NAM12 AND RUC13 TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FORECASTS
SUGGEST THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL REMAIN A COLD RAIN FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY SLEET
SHOWER AS SOME ENHANCED ECHOES MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT STILL EXPECT RAIN AS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR... MOST LOCATIONS ARE
ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS ARE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW POINTS...SUSPECT THE TEMPERATURE COULD
QUICKLY DROP TO FREEZING IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. FOR
NOW... WE WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO. ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU... WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN AS OF NOON.
ICING HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO IMPACT TRAVEL AND THERE HAVE
ALSO BEEN SEVERAL AUTO ACCIDENTS. WE/LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTACT
HERE AS WELL AS WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

We had ice on our two-year olds plastic playhouse this morning. Only ice we had.

[Ralph's Weather]

RAP precip totals keep going up. This is going to cause some major issues even in Texas. We have 3 inch icles on elevated surfaces already here though for now roads appear to be just wet.



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[KeriCarter]

Still sleeting heavily here in Texarkana. My picnic table has a good film of frozen precip on it and the yard and pastures are so white it looks like snow. Sleet is not melting on contact with the ground or driveway as it usually does even though the temp is 31. Do the weather gurus have any idea of what we can expect here? I am on the Arkansas side of Texarkana I hope that doesn't mean I have to vacate the forum for being a Texas imposter.

[Ralph's Weather]

Still sleeting heavily here in Texarkana. My picnic table has a good film of frozen precip on it and the yard and pastures are so white it looks like snow. Sleet is not melting on contact with the ground or driveway as it usually does even though the temp is 31. Do the weather gurus have any idea of what we can expect here? I am on the Arkansas side of Texarkana I hope that doesn't mean I have to vacate the forum for being a Texas imposter.

You will see things likely start to wind down later this evening. In the meantime expect sleet to continue accumulating. My guess on the precip sticking is that temps have been cold for over a day before this started.

[Portastorm]

Still sleeting heavily here in Texarkana. My picnic table has a good film of frozen precip on it and the yard and pastures are so white it looks like snow. Sleet is not melting on contact with the ground or driveway as it usually does even though the temp is 31. Do the weather gurus have any idea of what we can expect here? I am on the Arkansas side of Texarkana I hope that doesn't mean I have to vacate the forum for being a Texas imposter.

You're welcome here Keri as long as you don't do that "soeey pig" stuff!

Here's the latest advisory per NWS Shreveport for your area:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
417 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH 6AM WEDNESDAY...

ARZ070-071-TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149-150-152-165-
121200-
/O.CON.KSHV.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-140212T1200Z/
MILLER-LAFAYETTE-RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-
WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-NACOGDOCHES-
ANGELINA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TEXARKANA...LEWISVILLE...CLARKSVILLE...
MT VERNON...MT PLEASANT...PITTSBURG...DAINGERFIELD...ATLANTA...
QUITMAN...GILMER...JEFFERSON...TYLER...LONGVIEW...MARSHALL...
RUSK...HENDERSON...NACOGDOCHES...LUFKIN
417 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* EVENT...THE SECONDARY ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES MOVING
INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING RAIN AND SLEET
WITH A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING. A MIX OF SNOW
AND SLEET WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL
ICE ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH AND AN
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW.

* TIMING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

* IMPACT...ICING OF ELEVATED OBJECTS...SUCH AS BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES...AND TREES AND POWER LINES...IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
SOME SECONDARY ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF RAIN...SLEET AND
EVENTUAL FREEZING RAIN AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.