Texas Winter 2017-2018

[orangeblood]

This potential event reminds me of Thanksgiving 1993...The Leon Lett Game!!

[South Texas Storms]

Do yall think W ATX could see some ice and sleet ? How is the Baja Cali system doing? Could it enhance precip?

Yeah you will have a chance. Think the best chances are north and west of Austin though.

A piece of the Baja system moved across the state this morning bringing heavy rain to Houston. Looks like my house picked up about 3 inches. Wish I could share some with areas that need it farther west.

[Brent]

DFW down to 33

The 12z Euro running now has DFW above freezing til Monday morning.

Only has a couple hundredths of precip tomorrow

Euro looks icy in DFW next Friday Night and Saturday Morning, lot of precip

[Quixotic]

Was 30 at 9am here in Frisco. Was up to 32 at 11 but now back down to 30. Drizzle is freezing on elevated metal and vegetation.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like most of the metroplex is below are very near to freezing. The HRRR is just now starting to pickup on the next disturbance coming out.

[Ntxw]

As Brent said, Euro is major storm as baja low kicks out. It is also leading edge of Arctic delivery at 500mb flow once the system passes.

Have we turned a corner where systems are actually digging into the Rockies? Allowing cold to dam up against the front range?

[srainhoutx]

The Arctic front is now in the Northwestern areas of SE Texas. Caldwell is reporting 48F with gusty North winds to 23 MPH and drizzle. There is roughly a 20F drop associated with this front in about an hour.

[srainhoutx]

Processes underway to totally breakdown the ever present Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay all Winter. The Ensemble schemes now build a West and East Coast Ridge configuration which indicates a Blocking regime is likely in the Day 10+ Range. No where for the cold air to go but South as the Atlantic escape route that has been present all season closes and a -NAO regime sets up.

[Snowman67]

The Arctic front is now in the Northwestern areas of SE Texas. Caldwell is reporting 48F with gusty North winds to 23 MPH and drizzle. There is roughly a 20F drop associated with this front in about an hour.

This is way ahead of schedule - isn't it? I also think the temps forecast for tomorrow in my area (near 50) will end up busting.

[srainhoutx]

The Arctic front is now in the Northwestern areas of SE Texas. Caldwell is reporting 48F with gusty North winds to 23 MPH and drizzle. There is roughly a 20F drop associated with this front in about an hour.

This is way ahead of schedule - isn't it? I also think the temps forecast for tomorrow in my area (near 50) will end up busting.

Yes it is. I have been mentioning that we likely will see our Sunday high at midnight tonight and likely not recover to the 40's sometime on Tuesday across SE Texas. It's going to be a snap back drop in temperatures compared to the upper 60's/low 70's we are seeing at the moment across most areas. Still have some concern that a slight chance of a wintry mix may be possible from College Station to Lake Livingston line...possibly as far S as Navasota to Northern Liberty County tomorrow.

Edit to add: front just passed Brenham

[Ntxw]

Processes underway to totally breakdown the ever present Polar Vortex near Hudson Bay all Winter. The Ensemble schemes now build a West and East Coast Ridge configuration which indicates a Blocking regime is likely in the Day 10+ Range. No where for the cold air to go but South as the Atlantic escape route that has been present all season closes and a -NAO regime sets up.

As of today, the vortex has split. Further warming will look to destroy the Eurasian half, as the North American Vortex looks to be attacked



This is first true SSW, zonal winds reversal, and vortex decimation since 2012/2013 winter

[South Texas Storms]

As Brent said, Euro is major storm as baja low kicks out. It is also leading edge of Arctic delivery at 500mb flow once the system passes.

Have we turned a corner where systems are actually digging into the Rockies? Allowing cold to dam up against the front range?

12z Euro is showing ice accumulations of around 1 inch across portions of central TX and the Hill Country with that system Friday into Saturday. Needless to say, that would be horrible.

[Gigem12]

Is there going to be anything other than super light drizzle we are seeing in dfw currently?

[Ntxw]

Geek out tweet from Dr Amy H Butler. The Stratosphere queen at CIRES. If you like things SSW she is the person to follow.
Curious we just had a record setting MJO event followed alongside with the big SSW. Coincidence? Probably not

 https://twitter.com/DrAHButler/status/962356176254988288

[Brent]

Is there going to be anything other than super light drizzle we are seeing in dfw currently?

Theres a disturbance overnight tonight that should have better precip at least nearby

[rwfromkansas]

This person out to lunch? No idea if they are legit. Basically saying the SSW may be at the wrong time and will not help.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/961433462648516608

[bubba hotep]

This person out to lunch? No idea if they are legit.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/961433462648516608

Phil is most certainly not out to lunch.

[Ntxw]

This person out to lunch? No idea if they are legit. Basically saying the SSW may be at the wrong time and will not help.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/961433462648516608

That was probably the case a few days ago. But as we have seen as the frame comes closer the Pacific has improved. This has been a common theme throughout winter. 10-14 days out they prog the Pacific to flood the US with big jet extensions, only to be muted closer in. Which is why you keep seeing 80F two weeks out and warmth with no freezes, to be canceled 7 days in

I'd be more inclined to watch the Okhotsk low

[rwfromkansas]

I guess that post was a few days ago so situations may have been different.

FYI ETA temp at 32 and has been for an hour, so definitely not warming up today much at all.

Dropped to 31.6 again.

[bubba hotep]

12z HRRRx is similar to the RGEM but a bit more aggressive with totals showing 0.20 - .30" across DFW.