Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Portastorm]

We've had one inch of rain this year, and there's a good chance that's all the rain we will get for the first two months of 2014.

Yep. And that is darn unfortunate for all of us. Without an active southern jet, we keep getting these piddly, little upper level systems which don't have much moisture with them.

Perhaps the SOI index crashing is an encouraging sign of a more active southern jet to come in 2-3 weeks. And all of this developing El Nino talk I'm seeing is quite exciting! Oh, what we all wouldn't give for a nice El Nino this summer and fall. We could get the Pineapple Express rolling with one active southern jet system after another rolling across the state, replenishing aquifers/reservoirs/lakes/streams and then it would ... WAKE UP PORTASTORM!!

Oh, sorry ... I got to day dreaming there.

[Portastorm]

OK, I gotta share this because it's just too freakin' cool ... my brother in North Carolina shared it with me today. Check out the most unique way to announce a school closing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhtqjdUi0nw

[gpsnowman]

Question for the brains on here. If El Nino does form this summer, does that mean it will have disappeared by the start of winter 14/15? I think I would sacrifice a winter for a cooler than normal summer with soaking rains and clouds. 2009 comes to mind. Or was it 2007?

[TheProfessor]

Question for the brains on here. If El Nino does form this summer, does that mean it will have disappeared by the start of winter 14/15? I think I would sacrifice a winter for a cooler than normal summer with soaking rains and clouds. 2009 comes to mind. Or was it 2007?

Both had them some point during the winter before I think. I know in 2007 we had a snow storming dumped 6-8 inches here, and those seem to only happen during El Nino years.

[orangeblood]

For all of you winter weather lovers, Check out this really funny video!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=228759740641116

[Ntxw]

Question for the brains on here. If El Nino does form this summer, does that mean it will have disappeared by the start of winter 14/15? I think I would sacrifice a winter for a cooler than normal summer with soaking rains and clouds. 2009 comes to mind. Or was it 2007?

ENSO events (El Nino, La Nina) generally peak in the fall and winter months. Summer is the early stages never the peak. Strength of the Nino will also determine how wet it gets. When La Nina begins in the summer like 2010 and 2011 we tend to have extremely hot and dry summers. When El Nino gets going we tend to have cooler and wetter summers that extends through winter. El Nino's sometimes have a lag effect the following year which deluges can happen late spring once they die out from the winter.

[dhweather]

OK, I gotta share this because it's just too freakin' cool ... my brother in North Carolina shared it with me today. Check out the most unique way to announce a school closing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HhtqjdUi0nw

That is AWESOME!

[Ntxw]

Check this out guys, below the surface in the Pacific. Posted it in the ENSO thread, are we staring at our next El Nino?

[TheProfessor]

I sure hope so, we need one. Do all El Nino's bring wetter condition? because not all La Nina bring dry conditions, mostly the stronger ones. Is it the same for El Nino's?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: I sure hope so, we need one. Do all El Nino's bring wetter condition? because not all La Nina bring dry conditions, mostly the stronger ones. Is it the same for El Nino's?

El Nino's overwhelming bring wet conditions using DFW rainfall (the rest of Texas tends to be the same and in fact may average more rain in the south). Majority of El Nino's bring 40+ inches of rain a year for the metroplex, with an exception being the 1987-1988 Nino which had below average rainfall, either the year they form or the year they fade since they span from fall to spring. There are wet periods during La Nina especially early in the year but overall they generally true to form end up below average rainfall annually either the year they form or the following year which they fade, never fails.

This is why +PDO years of the 90s and early 2000s were so wet, year after year of Ninos accumulating surplus. -PDO since 2007 Nina after Nina accumulates deficits. What you do not want to see is a La Nina summer, those tends to be brutally hot.

Example of the stark differences, can you guess which two years were during El Nino or tail end of El Nino? Past 7 years

29.40
31.26
25.88
31.70
40.89
27.10
50.05

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Check this out guys, below the surface in the Pacific. Posted it in the ENSO thread, are we staring at our next El Nino?

Where is the ENSO thread?

[gboudx]

:uarrow: I sure hope so, we need one. Do all El Nino's bring wetter condition? because not all La Nina bring dry conditions, mostly the stronger ones. Is it the same for El Nino's?

Another great thing about Ninos is they typically suppress Atlantic tropical activity.

Check this out guys, below the surface in the Pacific. Posted it in the ENSO thread, are we staring at our next El Nino?

Where is the ENSO thread?

Go to the Talkin Tropics forum.

[Ntxw]

Alright back on topic of winter! Models are in even better agreement now that the 5h pattern will return to what has happened all winter, the -EPO. Ensembles flush the GOA region and bring back those high heights and the OP's even attempt at connecting the ridge to the south with the one with the -AO north. 7 days of warmth, pattern change again.

[orangeblood]

But Euro Ensembles continue to show almost the complete opposite setup from GFS Ensembles in the long term....ridges where troughs, troughs where ridges

[ravyrn]

Alright back on topic of winter! Models are in even better agreement now that the 5h pattern will return to what has happened all winter, the -EPO. Ensembles flush the GOA region and bring back those high heights and the OP's even attempt at connecting the ridge to the south with the one with the -AO north. 7 days of warmth, pattern change again.

http://i61.tinypic.com/2po19ns.png

http://i59.tinypic.com/fa4nqe.gif

I'm diggin' what you're layin'!

[JDawg512]

:uarrow: Are you sure those plants aren't on the clock with sunlight/angle than the weather? It's getting brighter each day significantly during this time. Natural climo says severe cold becomes unlikely after the second week of February so it's not ground breaking to say that every year because it's usually true. I mean I don't even need plants and I can tell you the hottest temperatures will occur in early August and once we pass the first week of Sept 110+ are unlikely

It would be more convincing if they can predict freezes and if a warm or cold spring is to come by averages . It is fascinating you brought that up because much vegetation up here this year are dead, by every definition. The ice storms really ripped them, I wonder if/when they decide to grow out and indeed a below average spring happens with late freezes will do to them.

While I'm sure the angle of the sun plays a role although they do not sprout at the same time each year which tends to suggest that it is not a major factor. I started monitoring their growth patterns about 6 years ago and each year, they begin to grow after the last of the coldest temperatures pass, typically within a couple of days. I've seen them start growing as early as late January (as was the case last year) to as late as early March. And always once they sprout the overall pattern begins to shift. Again like I mentioned before it doesn't mean no more freezes, they don't mind light freezes down to about 30 degrees but what I find interesting is they grow as soon as the harder freezes go by.

Of course we all know typical seasonal changes like you said but I figured that my observation might be of some interest.

[JDawg512]

Interesting about the plants! I noticed the Pink Indigo potted plant I brought into the garage several weeks ago has sprouted new leaves. The garage has no windows! It's like they have this internal circadian rhythm and can sense a change in atmospheric pressure, possibly on a larger scale(?), and react accordingly. Fascinating!

Yes I find it fascinating as well. I have spent the last 6 years watching and recording which plants react during seasonal or pattern changes. Filtering out species that get "fooled" and watching the ones that consistently grow indicating a change in weather.

I'm going to continue to record my observations for several more years.


What I wish now is some consistent rainfall... looking for rain clouds..

[Ntxw]

While I'm sure the angle of the sun plays a role although they do not sprout at the same time each year which tends to suggest that it is not a major factor. I started monitoring their growth patterns about 6 years ago and each year, they begin to grow after the last of the coldest temperatures pass, typically within a couple of days. I've seen them start growing as early as late January (as was the case last year) to as late as early March. And always once they sprout the overall pattern begins to shift. Again like I mentioned before it doesn't mean no more freezes, they don't mind light freezes down to about 30 degrees but what I find interesting is they grow as soon as the harder freezes go by.

The coldest month last year relative to average and freezes actually occured in March with the severe blocking, shouldn't they have waited? Maybe a certain temperature triggers them such as 80s which did occur in late January as well as this coming false spring? I will take your word for it though since I'm not much of a plants person, just numbers . It will be a good tool to measure by the coming weeks.

[tolakram]

Check this out guys, below the surface in the Pacific. Posted it in the ENSO thread, are we staring at our next El Nino?

Where is the ENSO thread?

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&hilit=&view=unread#unread

[wxman57]

That 500mb low height anomaly in the ECMWF for the 23rd is quite transitory. By the 25th it's replace by a strengthening ridge with way above-normal 850mb temps from Texas to NW Canada. The air behind next weekend's front won't be cold enough to produce a freeze in Houston, and maybe not much of one in Dallas.