Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

GFS still diving the cold south into North Texas Tuesday Night/early Wednesday. It appears to be a little slower

and temperatures are near 40 at 18z Wednesday in DFW after being near 60 Tuesday.

At 18z Wednesday 50s are past Austin and pushing towards Houston

[srainhoutx]

For the second day in a row, HGX is mentioning a McFarland like upper air pattern mid next week.

[Ntxw]

For the second day in a row, HGX is mentioning a McFarland like upper air pattern mid next week.

If you ignore the back and forth at the surface. At 500mb you have a large backwards "S"

[Brent]

For the second day in a row, HGX is mentioning a McFarland like upper air pattern mid next week.

If you ignore the back and forth at the surface. At 500mb you have a large backwards "S"

Just in time for Christmas week...

GFS very close to last run through next Thursday

[TheProfessor]

So uh guys, I'm gonna need some more zonalish type flow up until around Thursday. If the storms this week decide to amplify then it's going to send a surge of warm air advection my way and I could go from having 6 inches of snow to just having 3 quarters of an inch of cold rain. I'd prefer snow and not 33 degrees temps with wind and rain so I want that WAA to move as slow as possible. If the storm amps up my only hope is it turns into an apps runner, which doesn't look likely right now.

[Brent]

GFS colder next Friday than the 12z... some wintry precip in Arkansas

Next cold shot diving through Kansas at 210 hours

[Ntxw]

So uh guys, I'm gonna need some more zonalish type flow up until around Thursday. If the storms this week decide to amplify then it's going to send a surge of warm air advection my way and I could go from having 6 inches of snow to just having 3 quarters of an inch of cold rain. I'd prefer snow and not 33 degrees temps with wind and rain so I want that WAA to move as slow as possible. If the storm amps up my only hope is it turns into an apps runner, which doesn't look likely right now.

Us folks back in Texas here prefers it be warm along the eastern seaboard and the southeast . Usually means we have a SW trough coming out pumping the ridge in the SE conus cutting storm to the lakes and a swath of snow and ice from Dallas/Austin to Chicago

[Brent]

SE ridge is pumping at 228 hours cold front in Oklahoma

several -40s in Montana then

[Ntxw]

Winter storm pattern

[ronyan]

SE ridge is pumping at 228 hours cold front in Oklahoma

several -40s in Montana then

Wow looking at that map, Montana seems to resemble Siberia in temperatures.

[Ralph's Weather]

The week or so before Christmas is setting up beautifully for cold and snow.

[Brent]

oh that 240 hour pattern is beautiful. Some frozen precip in Oklahoma then. 264-276 winter storm developing over N TX.

[Brent]

300 hours frozen precip in Austin

[TheProfessor]

So uh guys, I'm gonna need some more zonalish type flow up until around Thursday. If the storms this week decide to amplify then it's going to send a surge of warm air advection my way and I could go from having 6 inches of snow to just having 3 quarters of an inch of cold rain. I'd prefer snow and not 33 degrees temps with wind and rain so I want that WAA to move as slow as possible. If the storm amps up my only hope is it turns into an apps runner, which doesn't look likely right now.

Us folks back in Texas here prefers it be warm along the eastern seaboard and the southeast . Usually means we have a SW trough coming out pumping the ridge in the SE conus cutting storm to the lakes and a swath of snow and ice from Dallas/Austin to Chicago

Actually I don't mind the warm east-coast as long the SE ridge is centered a bit further east. If the troughiness advances too far east it allows for the potential of a transfer that would end up screwing me over. Best case scenario for me would be a low coming out of central Texas but gradually amplifying until around Mississippi,I need that ridge to be a bit east of there to block it and then send the storm in a NNE motion as it bombs out over Eastern Ohio. But that hardly happens . The last time it did happen was March 2008.

[Brent]

Big winter storm beyond 300 hours

[Portastorm]

The 18z GFS reminds me of the group of drunk guys who sit around and come up with crazy ideas for pranks ... you know, the "hey, what if we did this?" or "wouldn't it be funny if we tied this to that and then drove down the street with this other thing on top of the car?!"

[Brent]

and then it warms up to near 70 on Christmas Eve... There's something for everyone in this run.

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies are out. Overall besides the pattern to come, everything relaxes a bit towards early Jan then The Pacific is more ridging. Perhaps we will do a 2013/2014 and continue the train. It is waaaay out there so take it with a grain of salt.

The climate models are taking a bit hit right now for monthlies. Most called for warm North America in December and most have already failed especially in Canada. January for the long guidance is a mixed bag showing how confused they are.

[weatherdude1108]

SE ridge is pumping at 228 hours cold front in Oklahoma

several -40s in Montana then

Wow looking at that map, Montana seems to resemble Siberia in temperatures.

I have a friend who recently moved to Montana from Austin. He said it got down to -6 the other day. The dog's water dish froze in garage and he moved the Dr Peppers from garage to the fridge to keep them from freezing. Pretty intense! But he enjoys the cold. He said it is all about perspective.

[aggiecutter]