Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[beachbum_al]

Cool here but not cold yet. It is supposed to go down to the mid 30s this week. We will see. Send me some of that snow this way.

[wxman22]

Heres a link to the latest European model (0z run) NOTE: Looks cold....


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[Portastorm]

The Euro sure does look cold, especially for Sunday!

Could the Euro and GFS look any more different? Wow.

[boca]

Reading all the state Discussions from Texas to Florida indicates that we might get cooler but just below the norms nothing drastic.Face it people this winter has no spark to it just ho hum.

[facemane]

Face it people this winter has no spark to it just ho hum.

I agree,and I hope and Pray the upcoming Hurricane season will be
ho hum as well.

[boca]

A CHANGE IN THE FLOW
GOING FROM THE NORTHWEST FLOW WE ARE EXPERIENCING THIS WEEK...TO
A ZONAL FLOW STARTING MONDAY WHICH WILL MEAN MODERATING TEMPS AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

That was from the Atlanta NWS. So much for arctic air.

[Tyler]

Reading all the state Discussions from Texas to Florida indicates that we might get cooler but just below the norms nothing drastic.Face it people this winter has no spark to it just ho hum.

You live in Florida.

[Tyler]

0z Euro day 5 continues its excellent consitensy. "GFS, your full of crap:"

850MB temps -4 to -6C around Houston. COLD!

Day 5:


Day 6 (Cold still around!):

[PTrackerLA]

It doesn't seem like this cold snap will be as cold as originally thought. Looks like now we'll barely have a light freeze this weekend and a few frosty mornings this week before the GFS warms us back up next week to normal/above normal. This really is a pathetic winter!

[jdray]

Here in NE Florida, Jacksonville's WJXT 4 is still calling for 30 low, 57 high on monday Feb 13th.

Fox 30 is saying 31/58 (they use accuweather)

NWS Jax is saying the same spread as well.....

Be interesting to see how the ECWMF holds up.

[gboudx]

It doesn't seem like this cold snap will be as cold as originally thought. Looks like now we'll barely have a light freeze this weekend and a few frosty mornings this week before the GFS warms us back up next week to normal/above normal. This really is a pathetic winter!

You do realize that Tyler and Extremeweatherguy will be all over you for saying this. Just kidding fellas.

All of the local TV mets up here are saying it will get colder this weekend.
Beyond that, they aren't saying much, but that time period is beyond their forecasts so I don't expect them to elaborate.

[jasons2k]

NWS Houston Sat. night had me at 29, now raised to 30. I like the trend

[Tyler]

It doesn't seem like this cold snap will be as cold as originally thought. Looks like now we'll barely have a light freeze this weekend and a few frosty mornings this week before the GFS warms us back up next week to normal/above normal. This really is a pathetic winter!

*bangs head on desk* PLEASE LOOK AT MORE MODELS THAN THE GFS!! Its not the all knowing model (but why do people think that?) and it never was. The GFS is a severe outlier in this whole thing. All global models have a 1045MB high dive bombing into the south, while the GFS is only 1035+. Its going to be wrong folks, heck even the NAM is with the Euro in regards to the strong high. So its the NAM, Euro, and all other global models vs. GFS, and your going to agree with the GFS!?!?

Okay, I just made this map over on Plymouth that I want to show you guys. This really shows the model disagreements at days 3 and 4. Check this out, this is the ECMWF sea level pressure map overlayed by the GFS (white lines).

Even on day 3, the Euro has it as a 1045, GFS, only 1039. WOW! I'm sorry, but thats a HUGE difference for it to be day 3:


As you can see, at day 4, the GFS only has the high at 1033!! The Euro has it has a 1045!! Man! Crazy.


I hope I have proved my point, and if not, then you guys can continue to place all your bets on the GFS, you just better be ready to lose all of your money...

[PTrackerLA]

While I agree that the European looks cold I'm basing my opinions on how the NWS is pretty much splitting the differences between the warmer GFS and the colder European. We'll see what happens but if you think we have extreme cold coming this weekend (teens/low 20's for my area) you're likely wrong. 55/30 isn't all that big of a deal for the second week in February.

[Tyler]

While I agree that the European looks cold I'm basing my opinions on how the NWS is pretty much splitting the differences between the warmer GFS and the colder European. We'll see what happens but if you think we have extreme cold coming this weekend (teens/low 20's for my area) you're likely wrong. 55/30 isn't all that big of a deal for the second week in February.

Excuse me? Your putting words in my mouth. Where in the world did I say extreme cold!? All I said is it will likley be colder than what the GFS is showing, MUCH COLDER. Also, highs will likely struggle to reach 50, and stay stuck in the 40's. Not sure about mid 50's like you say, unless clouds clear, which they most likely will not.

I really hate it when people put words in my mouth.

[Brent]

The mets seem to be backing down from this "arctic" outbreak. I do agree it'll get colder, but is Upper 20's for a low in Houston in Mid-February that unusual? It also looks like it moderates back to normal quickly.

Fortunately the ridiclously warm weather seems to be over for awhile.

[jasons2k]

Tyler, it's not only about Euro vs. GFS. It's also not only about how many mb the high is either. If you place all your bets on 1 or 2 factors you're gonna lose a wad too.

[Tyler]

The mets seem to be backing down from this "arctic" outbreak. I do agree it'll get colder, but is Upper 20's for a low in Houston in Mid-February that unusual? It also looks like it moderates back to normal quickly.

Fortunately the ridiclously warm weather seems to be over for awhile.

Its funny, the Euro has shown the EXACT same solution for this weekend for I don't know how many runs. The GFS flip-flops every run, and ridiculously shows the high way too weak as it passes into the US, and yet METS will kiss the GFS like its the all-knowing. I said it before and I'll say it again, forecasts this weekend will likely bust by as much as 15 degrees. But I agree with you Brent, the ridicuosly warm weather is finally over! Oh and also, upper 20's are not very common here in Houston in February. Many record lows for February are around 25-30 degrees. So yes, it is unusual.

[Tyler]

Tyler, it's not only about Euro vs. GFS. It's also not only about how many mb the high is either. If you place all your bets on 1 or 2 factors you're gonna lose a wad too.

Its not Euro vs. GFS. Its all global models and the NAM, vs GFS. Also, how strong the high is, is VERY important. 1036 vs. 1045 is a big difference. If 30 witnesses to a crime tell you they saw Mr. Bob murder the victim, but 1 person says he saw Mr. Stewart, who would you believe?

Also, if you put the height maps together, they are also very different.
Thats more than 1 or 2 factors...

[drezee]

hou record data

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/iah ... febhou.htm