Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Ntxw]

How about that late run of the Euro huh? TeamPlayersBlue has a chance! Where is all the people that wished for warmth. We should be getting countless posts about how wonderful and mild the weather is and the patterns that are giving it! Well for now...

[gpsnowman]

Color me curious. What does the Euro say?

[gpsnowman]

Did a bunch of outdoor stuff today. Saw wasps, mosquitos, flies, and numerous othe critters. No amount of cold can get rid of North Texas insects.

[aggiecutter]

Color me curious. What does the Euro say?

Looks very cold at day 10, with precipitation falling in south and central Texas. However, the precipitation will probably find a way to miss the Austin area, at least SW Austin.

This is not a professional forecast and should not be taken as such.

[wxman57]

What I see in the 12Z Euro is a cold front moving through TX early next week. Probably sub-freezing temps up in Dallas. Little or no precip with the frontal passage and none behind the front. Rapid warm-up to follow shortly after as the cold slips off the east U.S. Coast.

[Ntxw]

^ Not what I see. I see our friend the 1050mb high again followed by an undercutting jet, or split flow. Sorry we see what we want to see sir beyond truncation. ENS sees the split flow higher heights in Can and lower across the lower US, that sir is not above normal pattern.

[Portastorm]

What I see in the 12Z Euro is a cold front moving through TX early next week. Probably sub-freezing temps up in Dallas. Little or no precip with the frontal passage and none behind the front. Rapid warm-up to follow shortly after as the cold slips off the east U.S. Coast.

Um, that is not what I see here. I see VERY cold temperatures for much of the eastern half of Texas at Day 10 (240 hours). Maybe this "rapid warm-up" will occur after Day 10.



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[TexasF6]

How cold are we talking here? 20's for Austin? and no warm nose? Snow?

[ndale]

How cold are we talking here? 20's for Austin? and no warm nose? Snow?

I know this winter has made me skeptical but I don't know that I can buy into that idea considering all the cold weather we had here and all we could get was freezing rain. I don't think in 10 days from now we will even have freezing temps much less snow. I know we have had snow here as late as March before but I don't think this is one of those years. Maybe I am wrong.

This is just my opinion and not a forecast, please check your National Weather Service for official forecasts.

[Ntxw]

Ok guys lets not twist things around, nobody said snow or anything like that! Just that this mild pattern you are seeing will not last with the 5h flow returning to what it's been all winter like all the others we've seen for 4 months as long as that GOA hot pool stays intact. Thaws end with more below normal temperatures arriving so don't get too used to this weather, it will change. Perhaps we can flip to permanent spring in late March or April though the analogs say May.

[ronyan]

Winter is not over yet. I would take the bet that iah has not seen its last freeze this season. If Canada gets loaded with cold from Siberia again we will see some cold March temps in the states. This is assuming the epo flips back negative as ntxw has been discussing.

[dhweather]

Winter is far from over. Enjoy the warmth this week, it will come to an end. But dang, it sure was nice outside today!

[TheProfessor]

It was nice outside today. That southeast wind almost felt like a sea breeze. Almost.

[Ntxw]

Daily EPO index past 7 days. If this doesn't seal the deal that the EPO controls Texas temperatures (at the very least winter time) then I don't know what does. In the future one can't presume a winter outlook without looking deeply at this index and what it will do if you want success in long term forecasting Texas winters.

2014 02 08 -205.53
2014 02 09 -175.48
2014 02 10 -117.76
2014 02 11 -51.45
2014 02 12 30.70
2014 02 13 119.82
2014 02 14 165.86

[Portastorm]

Color me curious. What does the Euro say?

Looks very cold at day 10, with precipitation falling in south and central Texas. However, the precipitation will probably find a way to miss the Austin area, at least SW Austin.

This is not a professional forecast and should not be taken as such.

I have no doubt.

[JDawg512]

Thanks for the links. Interesting reads. I think it was a Volcanic eruption in Indonesia that was the driving force behind the year with no summer.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Winter is far from over. Enjoy the warmth this week, it will come to an end. But dang, it sure was nice outside today!

There were a bunch of Seagulls today in Grand Prairie, and my husband had even said "it smells like seawater out here"

[gpsnowman]

Hooray! Hooray! Hooray for Storm2k! Where are the charts? Where are the maps? Updates! Updates! Imagine if Storm2k went offline during a Texas blizzard? People would queued outside the PWC doors with torches, clubs, and pitchforks demanding answers.

[TheProfessor]

Hooray! Hooray! Hooray for Storm2k! Where are the charts? Where are the maps? Updates! Updates! Imagine if Storm2k went offline during a Texas blizzard? People would queued outside the PWC doors with torches, clubs, and pitchforks demanding answers.

Yeah that would be terrible. The site would probably go back down because of rapid post submissions.

[Ntxw]

The Operational guidance have all followed suit with the ensembles. Zonal flow ends with a powerful NW NA/Alaskan Ridge. Watch out if it decides to become an omega block up there instead of just a progressive +PNA ridge. We've seen this over and over this winter, undercutting jet does not keep things quiet, wouldn't it be cool if something dived underneath the ridge? Ensembles have done a wonderful on the wide scale pattern shifts this year. -EPO coming, possibly another tank. Isn't the NE Pacific fantastic? Or pesky in some other's view. Those who wrote off this winter having seen what it has done may be eating some crow.