Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

Congrats to winter 2017-2018 for ending the major SSW drought!

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/status/9628087101994 80320[/tweet]

Sweet! Now what.....

Any idea where the cold will go?

A lot of misconception is the question "where does cold go" after a SSW. For north America it's about a blocking ridge in the Arctic/Greenland to slow the flow. Then whether it gets cold or not is still dictated by the Pacific. Our continent is not like Europe where there can be easterly flow out of Russia. Things here go west to east. If the Pacific floods warmth then all we are blocking in place is that warmth vice versa.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, how long does it take before the atmosphere responds to this split/ SSW idea? I believe that's what is on most people's minds. I believe masiello said the big se ridge is a good thing in that its a sign of big changes happening in the atmosphere since we been in such a progressive regime for a while now

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, how long does it take before the atmosphere responds to this split/ SSW idea? I believe that's what is on most people's minds. I believe masiello said the big se ridge is a good thing in that its a sign of big changes happening in the atmosphere since we been in such a progressive regime for a while now

In general the final week of Feb most long range guidance nudges a near Greenland block. It's still a bit east based but the Canadian vortex is displaced to western Canada. That's more favorable for western cold and plains of sort. If you are living east of the MS river, torchaggedon cometh

[wxman57]

The 18z GFS appears to be an outlier as the 18z GEFS is much wetter and has a pretty strong signal for winter wx across Texas next weekend.

As others were mentioning earlier, FWD was pretty aggressive with the afternoon package, IMBY, they issued a point that has a low of 32 with a 50% of freezing rain.

Hmmm, that would be around the 16th...

[gpsnowman]

The 18z GFS appears to be an outlier as the 18z GEFS is much wetter and has a pretty strong signal for winter wx across Texas next weekend.

As others were mentioning earlier, FWD was pretty aggressive with the afternoon package, IMBY, they issued a point that has a low of 32 with a 50% of freezing rain.

Hmmm, that would be around the 16th...

Did you see this coming the whole winter?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 18z GFS appears to be an outlier as the 18z GEFS is much wetter and has a pretty strong signal for winter wx across Texas next weekend.

As others were mentioning earlier, FWD was pretty aggressive with the afternoon package, IMBY, they issued a point that has a low of 32 with a 50% of freezing rain.

Hmmm, that would be around the 16th...

You’re a wizard. I’m convinced!

[missygirl810]

The 18z GFS appears to be an outlier as the 18z GEFS is much wetter and has a pretty strong signal for winter wx across Texas next weekend.

As others were mentioning earlier, FWD was pretty aggressive with the afternoon package, IMBY, they issued a point that has a low of 32 with a 50% of freezing rain.

Hmmm, that would be around the 16th...

You’re a wizard. I’m convinced!

Harry Weather Potter??

[Quixotic]

We got about 3.5 weeks to get something, realistically. Climo starts working against us after the first week of March.

[bubba hotep]

We got about 3.5 weeks to get something, realistically. Climo starts working against us after the first week of March.

I would certainly like to lock something up in February, as March makes me nervous.

[Quixotic]

We got about 3.5 weeks to get something, realistically. Climo starts working against us after the first week of March.

I would certainly like to lock something up in February, as March makes me nervous.

Yep. I’ve seen two events in April: 87 and 07. I’ve seen 5 .events in March: 89, 02, 10, 14, 15. Untold in February. Just playing the odds.

[TexasF6]

GFS 18Z has another ICEMAGEDDON for Austin Friday into Saturday???? Really??? WxMan57 said it was coming.....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ntxw, how long does it take before the atmosphere responds to this split/ SSW idea? I believe that's what is on most people's minds. I believe masiello said the big se ridge is a good thing in that its a sign of big changes happening in the atmosphere since we been in such a progressive regime for a while now

In general the final week of Feb most long range guidance nudges a near Greenland block. It's still a bit east based but the Canadian vortex is displaced to western Canada. That's more favorable for western cold and plains of sort. If you are living east of the MS river, torchaggedon cometh

Had a friend in Germany one winter and she said it was SUPER cold. I investigated and yeah, just like you said, the winds were coming from Russia. Was very surprised. A ULL tracked west around a high and dipped towards the Mediterranean, i was amazed lol.

Air coming off of Russia is super cold.

[Yukon Cornelius]

This weekend could possibly be interesting up this way. The actual lows have been much colder than what has been forecasted. Currently they are forecasting 40-50% chance of rain with the low right at freezing. If it keeps the trend it has all winter with the cold, we could be in bunsiness.

[weatherdude1108]

Be glad we are not on the east coast/far southeast. Semi torch about to take hold as the SE/NW Atlantic ridge about to flex up that way. We benefit a bit from -PNA

Places like Atlanta, Birmingham will go likely no freezes and 70s/80s often. Mid Atlantic flowers budding out

Even further west we have already been feeling it. For the last week we have seen 70's or close to it. Grass is already starting to green up in places. Can say with confidence winter cancelled/done around here. The cold and snow we had seems forever ago.

My brother in DC sent me a message after I sent him ice on car pics:

How weird. It is 66 degrees here in northern VA right now. So we are more than 30 degrees warmer than Austin. On February 11. Strange.

That is weird!

[Brent]

Be glad we are not on the east coast/far southeast. Semi torch about to take hold as the SE/NW Atlantic ridge about to flex up that way. We benefit a bit from -PNA

Places like Atlanta, Birmingham will go likely no freezes and 70s/80s often. Mid Atlantic flowers budding out

Even further west we have already been feeling it. For the last week we have seen 70's or close to it. Grass is already starting to green up in places. Can say with confidence winter cancelled/done around here. The cold and snow we had seems forever ago.

My brother in DC sent me a message after I sent him ice on car pics:

How weird. It is 66 degrees here in northern VA right now. So we are more than 30 degrees warmer than Austin. On February 11. Strange.

That is weird!

yeah all my old weather friends in AL/GA are pretty much cancelling winter... and not joking

Oh well they had enough snow in December/January I really dont have much sympathy

[Haris]

Even further west we have already been feeling it. For the last week we have seen 70's or close to it. Grass is already starting to green up in places. Can say with confidence winter cancelled/done around here. The cold and snow we had seems forever ago.

My brother in DC sent me a message after I sent him ice on car pics:

How weird. It is 66 degrees here in northern VA right now. So we are more than 30 degrees warmer than Austin. On February 11. Strange.

That is weird!

yeah all my old weather friends in AL/GA are pretty much cancelling winter... and not joking

Oh well they had enough snow in December/January I really dont have much sympathy

They better not complain! ATL has seen 2 major snow events this winter! Dec one brought a FOOOOT of snow and jan one brought 2 inches! SMH . Jealous here LOL

[hamburgerman7070]

Gfs didn't look good unfortunately. Still a progressive pattern. The euro today 12z had it progressive so gfs followed suit. I'm not a big fan of the ensembles because more times than not the operationals are usually different than the ensembles. I think winter is over for us also, other than some rain events

[Texas Snowman]

The 18z GFS appears to be an outlier as the 18z GEFS is much wetter and has a pretty strong signal for winter wx across Texas next weekend.

As others were mentioning earlier, FWD was pretty aggressive with the afternoon package, IMBY, they issued a point that has a low of 32 with a 50% of freezing rain.

Hmmm, that would be around the 16th...

You’re a legendary rock star if it happens.

[hamburgerman7070]

Steve demartino, a met from the northeast said winter is over. I watched his periscope video. He said since the split happened and we got the strongest part of the split, overseas will benefit. I personally will never mention about a SSW event again because they usually don't effect us with cold weather. Europe and Asia benefit from it most often.

[Brent]

Euro is a cold rain in the upper 30s for DFW next Friday Night then a warmup after that and more rain towards the end of the run but warm

My brother in DC sent me a message after I sent him ice on car pics:

How weird. It is 66 degrees here in northern VA right now. So we are more than 30 degrees warmer than Austin. On February 11. Strange.

That is weird!

yeah all my old weather friends in AL/GA are pretty much cancelling winter... and not joking

Oh well they had enough snow in December/January I really dont have much sympathy

They better not complain! ATL has seen 2 major snow events this winter! Dec one brought a FOOOOT of snow and jan one brought 2 inches! SMH . Jealous here LOL

oh trust me... I just roll my eyes when they complain. I still havent gotten over the December storm. All those years in Alabama that was the kind of storm I wanted.