Texas Winter 2013-2014

[wxman57]

I'm still not seeing anything in the models (GFS or Euro) to indicate any significant change to a much colder pattern across Texas through early March. In fact, the GFS doesn't even have temps close to freezing in Dallas through March 6th. The 12Z Euro isn't in yet, but the 00Z had a low of 36 in Dallas on the 26th followed by a warming trend. I still think we've already seen our last freeze in Houston (IAH) for the year. Perhaps a heavy rain or severe weather event for Texas Sunday, March 2nd?

[Portastorm]

I'm sure you're not seeing anything "cold" looking in the deterministic runs of both the GFS and Euro because there's not much to see. The GFS deterministic (operational) never really showed much cold for later next week to begin with and the Euro has backed off in its last two runs. It's probably more sensible at this point to rely on how the ensemble mean looks and not rely on these deterministic runs, especially with the NWS national desk forecasters regularly chirping about inconsistencies.

I did notice some spread in the individual ensemble members in the 0z GFS but haven't had a chance to see the 12z run.

Regardless, you told us not to rely on any model beyond 3-4 days ... so I'm sticking to that!

[orangeblood]

To reiterate what wxman57 has been saying, don't see much on the horizon through the end of February but beginning of March has some potential with high heights across Canada and the Pacific Jet finally busting through. But the worry is (if you want winter weather) - will it bring too much mild pacific air with it ?


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

I'm sure you're not seeing anything "cold" looking in the deterministic runs of both the GFS and Euro because there's not much to see. The GFS deterministic (operational) never really showed much cold for later next week to begin with and the Euro has backed off in its last two runs. It's probably more sensible at this point to rely on how the ensemble mean looks and not rely on these deterministic runs, especially with the NWS national desk forecasters regularly chirping about inconsistencies.

I did notice some spread in the individual ensemble members in the 0z GFS but haven't had a chance to see the 12z run.

Regardless, you told us not to rely on any model beyond 3-4 days ... so I'm sticking to that!

Euro ensembles don't indicate any significant cold either - no freeze for Dallas-Ft. Worth through the 27th. Going 1 standard deviation below the forecast for the 25th yields a low of 31 at DFW. Euro ensembles through March 4th keep the zonal flow across the U.S. with cold bottled up in north-central Canada. Don't trust model forecasts of winter weather beyond 3-4 days. They forecast above-normal temps out to 15 days just fine.

[Ntxw]

Better hope that zonal flow verifies against analogs, Pacific. That is a lot of deep anomalous cold sitting very close nearby.

I still don't believe a wet spring to start. Neutral years are against it, any kind of real severe weather or wet conditions doesn't seem good until Nino kicks in early summer, if it does.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for that clarification! Got it now.

[wxman57]

On this date in 1986, the temperature at Bush (IAH) in north Houston reached a pleasant 87F. Normal low/high for today is 47 and 67. Ah, 1986 - the winter of my dreams...

[wxman57]

12Z Euro ensembles are in. No significant cold from Texas to southern Canada the first week of March. Polar vortex well NE of Hudson Bay and steadily weakening by days 10-15. Zonal flow prevails across the U.S. Temps normal to a little below normal next Wed-Fri followed by gradual warming. Highs across central to east Texas in the 70s to 80 the first week of March. Plenty of time for additional cold fronts (at least one per week) through April, but the snow to our north should be steadily melting in the coming weeks. In addition, days are getting longer and the sun is increasing in elevation.

[TexasStorm]

DFW Airport officially hit 81 degrees today.

[Ntxw]

Geez wxman57 where are you getting all this zonal flow from the ensembles?! I still see below normal heights over Texas almost the entire way and ridging in the NE US moving into Hudson bay as west -NAO, still above normal heights over Alaska, how does that equate to zonal flo??? Split flow, yes

[Stormcenter]

You are just full of good news for the cold weather lovers.

12Z Euro ensembles are in. No significant cold from Texas to southern Canada the first week of March. Polar vortex well NE of Hudson Bay and steadily weakening by days 10-15. Zonal flow prevails across the U.S. Temps normal to a little below normal next Wed-Fri followed by gradual warming. Highs across central to east Texas in the 70s to 80 the first week of March. Plenty of time for additional cold fronts (at least one per week) through April, but the snow to our north should be steadily melting in the coming weeks. In addition, days are getting longer and the sun is increasing in elevation.

[orangeblood]

Geez wxman57 where are you getting all this zonal flow from the ensembles?! I still see below normal heights over Texas almost the entire way and ridging in the NE US moving into Hudson bay as west -NAO, still above normal heights over Alaska, how does that equate to zonal flo??? Split flow, yes

To me, it appears like he's right....Euro Ensembles show majority of the flow coming out of the eastern Pacific directly across the US, not much of a NE Pacific ridge in place either. I'm afraid Pacific Air is about to take over this pattern towards the end of the month

[Tcu101]

DFW Airport officially hit 81 degrees today.

From NWS FW- "Through 330 PM, the high temperature for today at DFW has been 81 degrees. This is the warmest temeprature that we've seen since November 17th, 2013."

[Tcu101]

I caught a post on Facebook from the Texas Storm Chasers talking about how dry and how severe the drought is near Wichita Falls. They mentioned the city was thinking of cloud seeding to generate more rain for the area. Any evidence of this working ?

[Texas Snowman]

These guys sure aren't seeing a zonal flow. This was issued today and is for 2/24 to 2/28.

[Ntxw]

Geez wxman57 where are you getting all this zonal flow from the ensembles?! I still see below normal heights over Texas almost the entire way and ridging in the NE US moving into Hudson bay as west -NAO, still above normal heights over Alaska, how does that equate to zonal flo??? Split flow, yes

To me, it appears like he's right....Euro Ensembles show majority of the flow coming out of the eastern Pacific directly across the US, not much of a NE Pacific ridge in place either. I'm afraid Pacific Air is about to take over this pattern towards the end of the month

Ok sure it's not Arctic outbreak flow, but you're not talking about an Alaskan low dipping down into the GOA. You're looking at higher heights in the high latitudes above it. That's split flow to me, there is Aleutian low which is signature El Nino type split flow sending systems down from the mother storm. That doesn't scream March torch with zonal flow especially when the AO looks negative. And even this is beyond any OP model review and we're talking long long out there.



In the meantime, we are not heading into zonal flow next week, that is about as non zonal as you can get in the west.

[JDawg512]

Coldest I see is mid 60s for highs next week, still no significant rain yet and a fire weather watch on Thursday. I don't like the situation at all. The downside to this winter is its created a lot of dead and dry tender and a good widespread rain is something that we could really use right about now.

[vbhoutex]

Coldest I see is mid 60s for highs next week, still no significant rain yet and a fire weather watch on Thursday. I don't like the situation at all. The downside to this winter is its created a lot of dead and dry tender and a good widespread rain is something that we could really use right about now.

You got that right!! We haven't had 2" yet this year in W. Houston.

[Ntxw]

As a reminder there is a spring thread you can talk about warmth and March and what not. I'm not going to be active there this year and will be putting more of own resources/time into the ENSO thread (possibility of El Nino). As meteorological spring approaches that thread is always another option as long as Portastorm is in line with it.

[Lagreeneyes03]

These guys sure aren't seeing a zonal flow. This was issued today and is for 2/24 to 2/28.

Isn't this the forecast organization that was terribly wrong most of the winter, calling for above normal for Texas?