Texas Winter 2013-2014

[gboudx]

Quick question for you guys. I'm trying to make meteograms for my upcoming trip to Breckenridge, CO. When I'm looking at the temps, should I still be using the "surface" temps or should I be looking at the temps at 700 mb, which is around 9500 ft(close to Breckenridge's elevation)?

Probably the 700 mb since it's based on height from sea level.

[orangeblood]

Quick question for you guys. I'm trying to make meteograms for my upcoming trip to Breckenridge, CO. When I'm looking at the temps, should I still be using the "surface" temps or should I be looking at the temps at 700 mb, which is around 9500 ft(close to Breckenridge's elevation)?

Probably the 700 mb since it's based on height from sea level.

To make it easier on you, use model output for Copper Mountain/Red Cliff (KCCU) which is very close to Breck with similar elevation, it's calibrated to surface elevation.

[wxman57]

Quick question for you guys. I'm trying to make meteograms for my upcoming trip to Breckenridge, CO. When I'm looking at the temps, should I still be using the "surface" temps or should I be looking at the temps at 700 mb, which is around 9500 ft(close to Breckenridge's elevation)?

Probably the 700 mb since it's based on height from sea level.

Look at surface temps if you want to know the temperature at the surface. It just may happen that 700mb temps are close to what you'll see at the surface, but use surface temps.

[wxman57]

Note to all members: Ryan Maue has stated that absolutely NO images from his WeatherBELL site may be posted on a public forum. The one exception would be if he or Joe Bastardi first posts that image publicly, like on Twitter.

As for the 18Z GFS ensemble run yesterday, it was all alone in predicting the cold air would reach Texas. Later GFS runs keep the cold air north and east of Texas, which is right in line with the European ensembles.

[Ntxw]

Oh wxman57, hanging on to any little hope you can find! What a winter right?

I still do not see any kind of bombarding zonal flow to stop it. Lee cyclogenesis can slow it down, but in the past models have failed at the surface when trying to do this. Plus we need the undercutting or it will be just a dry cold so that's good. Devil is in the details but no one can deny winter will return with an omega block in Alaska now.

[orangeblood]

Note to all members: Ryan Maue has stated that absolutely NO images from his WeatherBELL site may be posted on a public forum. The one exception would be if he or Joe Bastardi first posts that image publicly, like on Twitter.

As for the 18Z GFS ensemble run yesterday, it was all alone in predicting the cold air would reach Texas. Later GFS runs keep the cold air north and east of Texas, which is right in line with the European ensembles.

hmmm, this is contrary to an email exchange I had with Maue a few weeks ago stating that the only images that were forbidden from posting are the European images (licensing issues). I'll send him another email clarifying

Care to explain why you think cold air of that magnitude will stay north and east, which is contrary to what it has done all winter long ?

[wxman57]

Note to all members: Ryan Maue has stated that absolutely NO images from his WeatherBELL site may be posted on a public forum. The one exception would be if he or Joe Bastardi first posts that image publicly, like on Twitter.

As for the 18Z GFS ensemble run yesterday, it was all alone in predicting the cold air would reach Texas. Later GFS runs keep the cold air north and east of Texas, which is right in line with the European ensembles.

hmmm, this is contrary to an email exchange I had with Maue a few weeks ago stating that the only images that were forbidden from posting are the European images (licensing issues). I'll send him another email clarifying

Care to explain why you think cold air of that magnitude will stay north and east, which is contrary to what it has done all winter long ?

I discussed the matter with Ryan and he doesn't want any of his copyrighted images posted, regardless of which model. We talked about the rumor that GFS images could be posted but not European model images and he specifically said no model images, even GFS.

I think the cold air will stay north of Houston because I hate cold weather! Also, Euro ensembles keep it north and east. The Euro ensembles prediction is for upper 20s to low 30s for the lowest temps in Dallas near the end of the month.

[Ntxw]

To add the European which held out hope for the EPO to relax after the dive has all but abandoned that idea and maintain with it's ensembles the negative EPO. -WPO to suit and the AO is showing signs of being negative!

Let the anomalous cold of the northern hemisphere drain into North America one more time! MJO/Kelvin wave is quite strong and will support Alaskan ridging and undercutting jet.

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT

Not only is wxman57 an appreciated and active member in this forum. He is a moderator. His post on Ryan Maue images from WeatherBell is 100% spot on.

Please follow it. Failure to do so will result in warnings/suspensions. Copyright matters are nothing to fool with.

[Ntxw]

As if you haven't gotten the message already, more maps!





I certainly hope no one decided to plant, and those budding vegetation will be in for a shock.

Remember these are a 5 day means from a group of ENS. It takes many of them to swing one way to have significant values

[northjaxpro]

I totally agree Ntxw. Heading into March, and being this late in the winter season, this next cold air outbreak potentially looks rather impressive across the Eastern 2/3 of the CONUS.

[orangeblood]

IMPORTANT

Not only is wxman57 an appreciated and active member in this forum. He is a moderator. His post on Ryan Maue images from WeatherBell is 100% spot on.

Please follow it. Failure to do so will result in warnings/suspensions. Copyright matters are nothing to fool with.

Is there something I'm missing - Just got an email back from Ryan Maue, the creator of the Weatherbell graphics and it's almost verbatim what I was told a few weeks ago (see below)...It seems as if most members enjoy his images and adds a great element to Storm2k so what is the issue if we have permission ?

-----------
Greetings,

You are permitted to share WeatherBELL's products on social media -- everything except ECMWF derived products.

Cheers,
RYAN

[TheProfessor]

Hmmm... Maybe they had a change of heart?

[South Texas Storms]

A line of storms is beginning to develop just to my northwest here in College Station along the front. It's been so long since I've seen a storm, I'm getting excited!

Also, the long range models (mainly CFS and GFS) have been consistently showing a wetter weather pattern beginning in about a week and continuing into early March. Man I really hope that happens! I love rain and storms!

[Ntxw]

Wxbell is a great resource, I hope what you say is true orangebloods cause many members here love looking at them. Ryan Maue has done a fantastic job, I prefer using his stuff over the actual NCEP sites even for free models. Fast, easy, and reliable and the European and indexes are unmatched IMO as far as I've seen.

More maps for the day, very cold over Canada and Alaska. Plenty of deep cold to tap into for so late in the season, Northern Hemisphere landmasses have been an icebox this winter. Pretty clear what cutting off milder Pacific does to the land, which is why the warm pool is so important it is a block or wall. DFW has 13 more freezes to go to tie the record, will we make it with some help in March?

[TexasStorm]

Anyone in the DFW area looked out your window lately to see all the dust this front brought with it?

[gpsnowman]

Anyone in the DFW area looked out your window lately to see all the dust this front brought with it?

Yep. Once the clouds cleared I was expecting to see bright blue sunshine. Instead the sky is a hazy brown with all that wind. Glad I got an allergy shot yesterday. I am certainly excited about the cold potential, but a heavy thunderstorm sounds so much more appealing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Those temps are chilly in the Arctic. I saw the Sea Ice the other day was the lowest in history for that date. Of course, JB didnt post it. Of course it has to do with the cold air being transported south. Could be an interesting summer though

[TheProfessor]

So if the el Nino starts early summer could it extend the severe weather season here? June is a dangerous month for hail. (Only when we get storms)

[Portastorm]

Check your PMs, please.

IMPORTANT

Not only is wxman57 an appreciated and active member in this forum. He is a moderator. His post on Ryan Maue images from WeatherBell is 100% spot on.

Please follow it. Failure to do so will result in warnings/suspensions. Copyright matters are nothing to fool with.

Is there something I'm missing - Just got an email back from Ryan Maue, the creator of the Weatherbell graphics and it's almost verbatim what I was told a few weeks ago (see below)...It seems as if most members enjoy his images and adds a great element to Storm2k so what is the issue if we have permission ?

-----------
Greetings,

You are permitted to share WeatherBELL's products on social media -- everything except ECMWF derived products.

Cheers,
RYAN