Texas Winter 2024-2025

Winter Weather Discussion

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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8561 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 18, 2025 6:22 am

No sign of a mix so far... Very very light precip though

Main event late morning and this afternoon

NWS has around 7 inches here

The heavier snow rates (on the order of an inch per hour) will
arrive by mid-morning across the north and will continue into the
afternoon. The strongest winds will be this morning, tapering off
gradually into the afternoon. The combination of heavy snow and
gusty winds up to around 30 mph at times will yield near blizzard
conditions across a good portion of northeast Oklahoma. Travel
will become downright dangerous. Major roads may close for a time,
including I-44. :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8562 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:22 am

What's the latest for timing and precip for DFW?

Ahead of schedule? Precip chances going up?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8563 Postby TomballEd » Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:31 am

The hard freeze with no winter weather Houston will see is my least favorite kind of weather. I'm ok with cold if it produces winter weather and doesn't mess with the power grid. But bitter cold without precip is just unpleasant.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8564 Postby WacoWx » Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:33 am

I think Dallas sees the same, awful weather, but colder.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8565 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:34 am

The cold front just passed through here. It’s very gusty right now.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8566 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:56 am

Image
Image


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8567 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 7:58 am

The Day of the Arctic Front

In the gentle hush of dawn's first light,
A cold breath whispers through the trees,
Winter's last grasp, a delicate plight,
Before Wxman57's warm decree.

Today, the arctic front descends,
A crystal symphony, nature's art,
As frost-kissed moments subtly blend,
With memories that tug at the heart.

The frost adorns each blade of grass,
A fleeting crown for nature's queen,
In Winter's court, where shadows pass,
And dreams of snow remain unseen.

We feel the chill, the snowflakes dance,
In winter's final fleeting chance,
To write our memoirs, mark our stance,
Against the coming sun's advance.

For soon the clutches of summer's heat,
Will melt this icy firmament,
And Winter's reign will find defeat,
In seasons' endless testament.

The barren trees, like sentinels,
Stand witness to this fleeting phase,
As snowflakes fall, like silent bells,
In winter's twilight, nature's praise.

But we will not go down easy, dear,
For though we may succumb to warmth,
Today we savor what is clear,
Mother Nature's gift, this winter's charm.

The frozen ponds, the silent streams,
Reflect the sky's cerulean hue,
A canvas for our fondest dreams,
Of winters past and summers new.

So let us revel, write, and pen,
These frozen hours, where time suspends,
For in our words, Winter lives again,
As Wxman57's warmth ascends.

Let memories of frost and cold,
Be etched in pages, stories told,
Of arctic fronts and wintry bold,
That linger as the seasons unfold.

For in the heart of every soul,
Lies a tale of seasons' toll,
Of winter's kiss and summer's goal,
A timeless dance, a story whole.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8568 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:13 am

The freezing line has made it to the northern half of Wichita County. Freezing drizzle just started developing to my north.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8569 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 18, 2025 8:58 am

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
530 AM CST Tue Feb 18 2025


.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Arctic cold front will arrive today, bringing strong north
winds with gusts up to 35 mph along with dangerous wind chills
of -10 to 10 degrees through Thursday morning.

- Temperatures will fall below freezing across North Texas this
afternoon and evening with light freezing rain and drizzle
occurring. This could result in icy conditions mainly on
bridges and overpasses.

- There is also another chance for rain on Saturday, with a low
potential for a transition to freezing rain on Saturday morning.
This scenario is still uncertain.

With this morning`s forecast issuance, brief Winter Weather
Advisories were issued for portions of North Texas which will go
into effect later today due to the chance for light freezing rain
and drizzle to result in icing mainly on bridges and overpasses.
Overall, little has changed with the forecast, aside from a
slightly faster arrival of the sub-freezing airmass which
unsurprisingly is best handled by the RAP/HRRR and 3 km NAM. The
main time windows of concern for light ice accumulations are noon
to 6 PM for western North Texas, and about 5 PM to 10 PM for areas
from the Metroplex northward.

Another potential hazard is a chance for lake-effect snow to
materialize on the southern sides of North Texas lakes tonight
into early Wednesday morning. There may be a brief window of time
where sufficient moisture remains in place within the lowest 1 km
with temperatures at the base of the inversion and cloud layer
falling as low as -10 to -12C. This would support dendritic
growth with light snow flurries developing beneath the warm nose.
No snow will be mentioned in the forecast for the sake of
simplicity at this time, but this may bear watching heading into
Wednesday morning as some very localized accumulations would be a
possibility.

Otherwise, temperature are still on track to reach their coldest
values of the season with widespread lows in the teens tonight
into Wednesday morning. An Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather
Advisory remain in effect, with wind chill values of -10 to 0
degrees expected roughly form the DFW Metroplex northwestward.
Despite gradually clearing skies during the daytime Wednesday,
afternoon highs will remain near or below freezing for much of the
area, with the exception of Central Texas which should manage to
reach the mid 30s or so. Wind speeds will remain gusty the entire
day though, with maximum wind chill values only reaching the teens
and lower 20s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8570 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:17 am

Latest HRRR continues to get colder, Thursday morning lows approaching single digits across northern portions of North Texas. Looking more likely that DFW is below freezing from 6pm this evening thru potentially Friday afternoon and maybe Saturday late morning! This could set the stage for DFW to break 3 consecutive low max high records in a row (Feb 20, 21, 22)

CMC and ICON models lead the way with this one, phenomenal late season airmass without snow cover!!


Image
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8571 Postby cstrunk » Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:19 am

The Oauchita mountains in SE OK/W AR doing their work again to block the northeasterly winds blowing in cold air, for those of us in NE TX. There's still a chance we may see a few sleet pellets/flurries tomorrow but dry air usually wins on the back side.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8572 Postby wxman22 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:50 am

Getting a glaze of ice now. With “moderate” freezing drizzle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8573 Postby WacoWx » Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:54 am

Thats ahead of schedule for you, no?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8574 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 18, 2025 9:55 am

Potentially dangerous evening commute across the DFW Metroplex. Light frz rain/drizzle/sleet with temps in mid 20's is arguably the most dangerous driving situation you can have...drivers can get overconfident going from bone dry roadways to a thin ice sheet in an instant. This scenario happened in Feb 2021 in downtown Fort Worth with multiple fatality pileups

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8575 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:02 am

orangeblood wrote:Potentially dangerous evening commute across the DFW Metroplex. Light frz rain/drizzle/sleet with temps in mid 20's is arguably the most dangerous driving situation you can have...drivers can get overconfident going from bone dry roadways to a thin ice sheet in an instant. This scenario happened in Feb 2021 in downtown Fort Worth with multiple fatality pileups

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-nest/tx/instant_ptype/1739880000/1739934000-WkmjLz08BKg.png

100 percent correct. Dangerous afternoon/evening on tap. The Fort Worth pileup was a bare minimum of a glaze and that's all it took. Just a matter of time I think before school closures start coming out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8576 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:03 am

Front through Graham and Breckenridge. 15 degree drop in an hour.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8577 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:05 am

orangeblood wrote:Latest HRRR continues to get colder, Thursday morning lows approaching single digits across northern portions of North Texas. Looking more likely that DFW is below freezing from 6pm this evening thru potentially Friday afternoon and maybe Saturday late morning! This could set the stage for DFW to break 3 consecutive low max high records in a row (Feb 20, 21, 22)

CMC and ICON models lead the way with this one, phenomenal late season airmass without snow cover!!


https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/t2m_f/1739880000/1740052800-IUlEVdqPQqU.png


NWS FTW actually up the timing on the front to between Noon & 2pm, and with NTX currently in the upper 40s we should drop below freezing within the first hour of passage.
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8578 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:07 am

The ICON is a pretty decent model when it comes to temperature but it can have major flaws when it comes to QPF. Just look at its latest 24 hr qpf depiction compared to the Hi-Res HRRR!

So bad considering we're almost real time!
Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8579 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:20 am

orangeblood wrote:The ICON is a pretty decent model when it comes to temperature but it can have major flaws when it comes to QPF. Just look at its latest 24 hr qpf depiction compared to the Hi-Res HRRR!

So bad considering we're almost real time!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1739880000/1739966400-o7k980x91Cg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_precip_inch/1739880000/1739966400-0QSI1HwtUGo.png


Is all of that falling when the temperatures are well below freezing?
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Re: Texas Winter 2024-2025

#8580 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 18, 2025 10:23 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:The ICON is a pretty decent model when it comes to temperature but it can have major flaws when it comes to QPF. Just look at its latest 24 hr qpf depiction compared to the Hi-Res HRRR!

So bad considering we're almost real time!
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/icon-all/tx/precip_24hr_inch/1739880000/1739966400-o7k980x91Cg.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/hrrr/tx/total_precip_inch/1739880000/1739966400-0QSI1HwtUGo.png


Is all of that falling when the temperatures are well below freezing?


No, only a few hundredths of it when below freezing but it won't take much to cause problems
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